this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2024
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Image is of one of the six salvos of the Oreshnik missile striking Ukraine.


The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that appears to split into six groups of six submunitions as it strikes its target, giving it the appearance of a hazel flower. It can travel at ten times the speed of sound, and cannot be intercepted by any known Western air defense system, and thus Russia can strike and conventionally destroy any target anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes. Two weeks ago, Russia used the Oreshnik to strike the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine, particularly its underground facilities, in which ballistic missiles are produced.

Despite the destruction caused by the missile, and its demonstration of Russian missile supremacy over the imperial core, various warmongering Western countries have advocated for further reprisals against Russia, with Ukraine authorized by the US to continue strikes. Additionally, the recent upsurge of the fighting in Syria is no doubt connected to trying to stretch Russia thin, as well as attempting to isolate Hezbollah and Palestine from Iran; how successful this will have ended up being will depend on the outcome of the Russia and Syrian counteroffensive. Looking at recent military history, it will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to retake a city that was lost in about 48 hours.

Even in the worst case scenario for Hezbollah, it's notable that Ansarallah has had major success despite being physically cut off from the rest of the Resistance and under a blockade, and it has defeated the US Navy in its attempts to open up the strait. Israel has confirmed now that their army cannot even make significant territorial gains versus a post-Nasrallah, post-pager terrorist attack Hezbollah holding back its missile strike capabilities. In 2006, it also could not defeat a much less well-armed Hezbollah and was forced to retreat from Lebanon.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 41 points 8 months ago (2 children)
The Cradle: 60 days of uncertainty: Can the Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire hold out?

In the early hours of 27 November, the shaky ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the US and France, with widespread international and regional support, came into effect. The fragile truce was immediately met with skepticism by many Israelis – officials and civilians – who doubted their country’s ability to follow through.

Some officials openly labeled the deal a defeat against Hezbollah and placed the blame squarely on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for failing to achieve both the stated and hidden objectives of his war on Lebanon – particularly the goals of eliminating the resistance movement and returning hundreds of thousands of displaced settlers back to the north. A poll conducted by Israel's Channel 12 revealed that over 80 percent of Netanyahu’s support base opposed the ceasefire. Residents in northern Israel, many of whom were evacuated due to Hezbollah's strikes, also expressed outrage. Domestically, Israel was deeply divided over the agreement, with polls showing 37 percent supporting the ceasefire and 32 percent opposing it.

False sense of victory

The shock among Israeli elites following the prime minister's endorsement of the truce agreement was due to a false sense of victory. Netanyahu, along with former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, had misled them into believing that the Israeli military had destroyed 80 percent of Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, giving the impression that the Lebanese resistance movement was on the brink of collapse. Israelis watched in humiliation as Hezbollah prevented five enemy divisions from advancing more than three to five kilometers into Lebanese territory – an advance that was, anyway, tactically insignificant, as the divisions should have penetrated 20 kilometers deep.

Strategically, Hezbollah continued to target Israeli military assets well beyond the border, reaching as far as the Ashdod naval base, 150 kilometers inside Israel, and maintaining blistering attacks on key cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv. These strikes severely disrupted daily life inside the most populated centers of the occupation state, paralyzing military operations and showing Israel that eliminating Hezbollah was not a feasible war goal. Hezbollah’s missiles even reached Tel Aviv, reinforcing a "Beirut–Tel Aviv" deterrence equation. Netanyahu ultimately conceded that diplomacy was his only viable solution, particularly given the growing issues within the occupation military itself: exhaustion, injuries, munitions shortages, and limited progress.

Israel’s 60-day strategy

The unease within Israel over this agreement has led Netanyahu and new Defense Minister Israel Katz to direct the army to develop a new strategy within the next 60 days, a period stipulated in the agreement for Israel’s full withdrawal from Lebanese territory. This strategy involves two main actions: first, conducting targeted airstrikes on Hezbollah positions both inside and beyond the area south of the Litani River, and second, preventing Lebanese residents from returning to villages and towns within a 10-kilometer range of the border.

The airstrike directive is meant to reaffirm Israel's military freedom of action, in part to assure the Israeli public that occupation forces retain their ability to strike Hezbollah when necessary. This controversial clause, which Lebanon completely rejected, was part of private, unseen US guarantees to Tel Aviv, given without Beirut's consent. Netanyahu aims to portray Israel as having accepted the agreement from a position of strength while buying time until the five-member Monitoring Committee begins its work on addressing ceasefire violations. During the next 60 days, the presence of occupation forces in Lebanon will keep tensions high, requiring close monitoring of Hezbollah to ensure the security of these troops until their full withdrawal.

The decision to prevent Lebanese residents of border areas from returning to their homes aims to avoid an awkward contrast between the resettlement of southern Lebanese residents while the displacement of northern Israelis continues. Those optics would be politically damaging for the Israeli government.

Managing withdrawal and maintaining strength

In essence, the Israeli military’s strategy over the coming 60 days revolves around maintaining a veneer of strength and managing the delicate withdrawal process, which will conclude with the Lebanese army, in coordination with UNIFIL, taking full control of the region’s security. Afterward, the Monitoring Committee will enforce compliance with UN Resolution 1701, which prohibits Israeli military actions within Lebanon. This was confirmed by Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem in his last speech when he announced his commitment to the agreement and that coordination with the Lebanese army would be at the highest level.

If Israel insists on continuing to violate the agreement based on US guarantees that Lebanon has neither seen nor accepted – and continues to launch attacks under the oversight of the Monitoring Committee and its American chair, it could provoke a reciprocal response from Lebanon and possibly lead to a resumption of hostilities. Hezbollah has already fired a warning shot on 2 December, targeting Israeli-occupied Lebanese territory. This comes after Israel has violated the ceasefire dozens of times since it went into effect seven days ago. Tel Aviv responded disproportionately to the single Hezbollah retaliation, striking a number of sites across Lebanon. CNN itself admits, citing a UN peacekeeping source, to over 100 violations as of 3 December.

But both Israel and Lebanon need this agreement: their two-month military confrontation underscored that a continued war would only lead to further exhaustion and unsustainable losses on both sides. The ceasefire also came about due to international pressure, particularly from the US – a principal mediator – which sought to end a conflict that had become an embarrassment due to Israel’s disregard for international law and civilian lives. Despite ongoing violations, including artillery shelling, air raids, and drone activity, the agreement appears poised to stabilize the situation due to mutual necessity. For Israel, continued conflict would only lead to greater attrition, while Lebanon benefits from halting aggression and ensuring stability along the border.

Given these circumstances, it seems likely that the agreement will hold, benefiting all parties. Any violations should be addressed by the Monitoring Committee, which will aim to restore stability along the border, especially after the 60-day period and the full deployment of the Lebanese army.

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[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 41 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Ok I wake up and Syria has fallen to the dumb ass terroists? Is this Lybia 2.0? What the fuck man?

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[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 40 points 8 months ago (5 children)

macron recognizes atrocity in a vain attempt to stop Senegal from kicking out france-cool troops:
https://africanstream.media/african-heroes-massacred-by-france/

Sunday, 1 December, marked the 80th anniversary of the brutal massacre of African soldiers at the French colonial military camp of Thiaroye, Senegal. The soldiers were African men of various ages who had been conscripted and forced to serve in France’s colonial army. They hailed from all over French colonial West and Central Africa and were collectively referred to as the Senegalese Tirailleurs – or sharpshooters.

These African men had just returned from Europe, where they had served on the frontlines of World War II in order to defend France from the spread of Nazism. Upon their return to Africa, they were sent to the Thiaroye camp to receive their wages and then return home to the various parts of the continent from which they came. However, this time round, their wages were delayed – and when they dared to protest about this, the French colonisers opened fire on them, murdering up to 400 African soldiers who’d served them in their own army.

On this anniversary, for the first time, a French president, Emmanuel Macron, has officially recognised that this massacre occurred – in a letter to the Senegalese president. Perhaps the reason for the change of tune is that countries across Africa are expelling French troops, and France is scrambling to save its image before a revolting population. However, recognition of this historical atrocity is not enough. Africans in former French colonies are calling for the full removal of all French military forces, an end to the neo-colonial CFA franc currency and the closure or nationalisation of the many French-based multinational corporations that have taken over the local economies of the region.

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[–] Eldungeon2@hexbear.net 40 points 8 months ago (5 children)

The Republic of Samsung has fallen.

A. True B. False

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[–] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 40 points 8 months ago

Democracy is when you just say no if the wrong candidate wins.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 40 points 8 months ago

I guess it's Assadover for now, HTS will probably control most of the country while Assad attempts to create a state in Latakia (or he flees to the UAE). At this point who knows what is going to happen to Syria, I doubt peace will last long, these terrorists will 100% attempt to invade Iraq and Lebanon, and infighting is also a huge possibility.

[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 40 points 8 months ago (2 children)

No condemnation from the US.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 40 points 8 months ago

Erdogan: Syrian opposition's goal is Damascus! The Turkish leader also openly supported the militants in his statement and expressed hope that they would go to the end.

[–] Nyarlathotep7@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (35 children)

This is going to be real armchair leftist but I've been thinking about this for a while. Everything we've been seeing these past few years has really led me to believe that we've entered a period where all of the big let's say anti-west if not anti-imperialists will wither away due to passivity. Russia, China, Iran, they will passively watch their allies blink out one by one, I'm pretty sure if the DPRK ever does invade SK or vice-versa, we will see China do the same thing Iran is doing now. The US will push every red line, the entity has gotten so bold, the dead-motherfucker of the world know this. I think we've reached a point where the Jakarta method has been perfected, the US will butcher anyone and they know that others will not retaliate.

It won't happen but I think the only way out of this horrible mess is for the left to let go of compassion in a sense. Iran should have glassed Israel, and targeted hospitals and schools. Israel could win such a conflict yes but the fucking nazis would have left in droves, they don't have the spine to live through even an inch of the hardship that our brothers and sisters in Palestine have been through. In a grander sense, and yeah yeah this is fedposting but who gives af, there needs to be mass retaliation. Like Algeria did against the French, or a reverse of what we're seeing happening in Syria. If this is the Cold War 2.0, we are seeing a USSR that watched Vietnam fall without care. This a one-sided conflict, our "socialist" bloc is comprised of China, Vietnam (lol, they WILL side with the US), DPRK, and Cuba, idk nothing about Laos. There is no plan.

This isn't meant to be doomerism, I just don't know how these countries can just...watch. China is especially, hot take I guess, but I have no faith in their current strategy.

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[–] merthyr1831@lemmy.ml 39 points 8 months ago (12 children)

If Assad was truly on that plane, then maybe it's time Russian proxy leaders and client statesmen learn to NOT to board a Russian plan the moment you've royally pissed off your Kremlin handlers.

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

#beanwatch update:

cocoa is still at 10k (4x of usual), praying for the farmers to take so much money from euro dipshits

coffee still 50 % more expensive than usual, but stays there for now

[–] Eldungeon2@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (4 children)
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[–] Dolores@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (2 children)

usually i can get this from wikipedia, but besides the military i am not clear what the president of the ROK is actually in charge of. if anyone can give a quick primer for a framework of what the Pres can do (legally)

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[–] GVAGUY3@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (1 children)

I was hoping Israel only had about 10 years left, but now that feels optimistic. They are way stronger than I anticipated. I just hope I am wrong

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Despite openly wanting to destroy Hezbollah, HTS now sends a letter to Lebanon wishing for 'positive relations'. Egypt and Jordan have urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to form a government in exile – Wall Street Journal

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[–] gay_king_prince_charles@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (6 children)

South Korea’s largest union confederation says members will strike until Yoon resigns (CNN)

South Korea’s largest union confederation said its members will go on an indefinite general strike until President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns following his attempt to impose martial law.

“We will fight alongside the people, leading the way for the immediate resignation of Yoon Suk Yeol,” the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) said, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.

“KCTU members will stop working according to the strike guidelines, call for the resignation of Yoon Suk Yeol for treason, and conduct nationwide emergency actions for social reform and the realization of popular sovereignty,” the union added.

The KCTU boasts 1.2 million members.

The union confederation said members will gather at Gwanghwamun Square this morning. The huge square in central Seoul which has long been the location for political protests.

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[–] WIIHAPPYFEW@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (3 children)

WAITER THERE’S A DECADE IN MY WEEK

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[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (7 children)

Can someone point me to a history on Syria? I know the basics of the civil war, but I want to learn more about the history of ba'athism. What was Syria like before ba'athism? What changes did it bring? How has it changed over time?

People here seem to be highly critical of Assad now that things are collapsing. How did conditions deteriorate into a civil war?

I was under the assumption that although things were bad in Syria, everyone would be better off if Assad had won the civil war relative to the other groups that were in direct conflict with him. Is this true?

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Imagine if now the roles reverse, and Russia and Iran support Assad's Loyalist guerrillas against whatever Pro-US Far-Right Islamic Goverment takes over Syria. Probably won't happen since I doubt Assad is that popular, unless he somehow does a Peron and retuns to power.

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[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Danish Cyber Warfare Agency Crippled By Austerity

Denmark’s Center for Cybersecurity (CFCS), responsible for surveillance of citizens and defending national IT infrastructure, is grappling with severe austerity measures that threaten its operational effectiveness. The cuts come despite daily reports of cyberattacks on Danish institutions and a self-declared "very high" cyber threat level.

The austerity, driven by overspending within the Nordic hermit kingdom's scandal-ridden spy agency FE—to which CFCS belongs—has led to hiring freezes, mandatory overtime compensation through time off, and the suspension of essential activities such as inspections, international collaboration, and participation in knowledge-sharing conferences. Additionally, CFCS has canceled nearly all professional subscriptions, curbing access to vital cybersecurity developments.

The economic mismanagement stems from FE’s overestimation of future funding under a new political defense agreement, leaving the agency with a DKK 118 million budget shortfall. Despite being at a level of paranoia not seen since the Cold War, the Danish state still adheres to neoliberal budgetary orthodoxy, forcing cost-cutting across CFCS. These measures, combined with red tape and uncertainties in transferring CFCS to a new Ministry for Civil Security and Preparedness, have left the organization in disarray.

Experts warn that the cuts will hinder Denmark's ability to address cyber threats, jeopardize critical infrastructure, and risk the loss of skilled personnel.

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