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submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/politics@lemmy.world

This post uses a gift link which may have a cap on how many times it can be used. If it runs out, there is an archived copy of the article available

Théo’s huge wagers on Polymarket—a prediction market that isn’t open to Americans—drew broad attention last month after the Journal reported that four accounts on the platform had been systematically purchasing wagers on a Trump victory. The bets lifted Trump’s odds of beating Vice President Kamala Harris, as shown on Polymarket. Blockchain data showed that the accounts were all funded by the same crypto exchange, fueling debate about the motives of the “Trump whale” behind them.

So the entire prediction market swing is simply about a rich guy tossing huge amounts of money around, and has nothing whatsoever to do with what's actually going on.

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[-] idiomaddict@lemmy.world 11 points 2 days ago

Besides his main wager on Trump winning the Electoral College, Théo has bet millions more on Trump winning the popular vote

Lol. Lmao, even

[-] Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 days ago

Yesteeday the Republican president, Democrat popular vote is +245. Trump was -200 and Kamala was +170.

It doesn't even make sense. In what world is Trump winning the popular vote? If you believe Trump will win, take that bet all day. In fact I think the odds are so good you could arbitrage between kamala and the first bet and always come out ahead.

[-] solidgrue@lemmy.world 25 points 3 days ago

Betting markets are driven by people with disposable income, and doubly disposable priorities. Change my mind.

[-] HK65@sopuli.xyz 5 points 3 days ago

Thanks to Wall Street, all markets are betting markets.

[-] Lexam@lemmy.world 24 points 3 days ago

Made a bet based on polls. Yeah, good luck with that.

[-] MediaBiasFactChecker@lemmy.world -3 points 3 days ago

The Wall Street Journal - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)Information for The Wall Street Journal:

Wiki: reliable - Most editors consider The Wall Street Journal generally reliable for news. Use WP:NEWSBLOG to evaluate the newspaper's blogs, including Washington Wire. Use WP:RSOPINION for opinion pieces.


MBFC: Right-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America


Search topics on Ground.Newshttps://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3?st=527d4o
Media Bias Fact Check | bot support

this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2024
66 points (94.6% liked)

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