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this post was submitted on 13 Jul 2024
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Then you are incredibly historically naive. He was already winning by every available metric. So, if nothing had changed at all there was already an extremely high likelihood of him being reelected. This only serves to further strengthen his chances.
I don't think people really understand how stupid, brainwashed, and weak minded the average American truly is. There are plenty of people who will vote for him because surviving an assassination attempt makes him look strong. Count on it.
I just looked for myself, and NPR/PBS survey has Biden ahead. Many other polls have it basically tied. A few have Trump in the lead by 2-3 points.
I wouldn't personally call that winning by every available metric, although I would agree with you that it looks like Trump has a slight lead.
Were those national popular vote polls? If so, you have to factor in the electoral advantage Republicans have. If the national popular vote is tied, Republicans will win.
Individual polls are meaningless. I only care about the trends of the the aggregate polling. Five Thirty Eight has had Trump leading by an average of 2 points in aggregate polling basically from the beginning. There has never been a time where Biden was ahead during this election cycle. Therefore, using the available metrics it is clear that Donald Trump is on the path to returning to the White House.
You sure about that?
You linked to the 2016 election. Here are the adjusted values for 2024.
I did link 2016, showing that Clinton had a bigger lead than the rapist with 34 felonies has now. How'd that turn out again?
You could make points without calling the other person naive. No need to make the internet a worse place.
As far as "every available metric" goes, you're talking polls, and polls are garbage. Every poll had Clinton winning in late October 2016.
And we're in an unprecedented portion of politics in American history, so bringing up historical measurements doesn't convince me like you think it would.
More Reddit-y here by the day…
Looks a lot like the propaganda trolls got tired of arguing with each other and branched out here.
We will see who did the proper analysis in 4 months time. I'm really hoping it won't be me. Unfortunately, I am also certain that I am correct.
I'm not certain at all, which scares me all the same. Tho the last ten years still hasn't beaten the hope out of me, so I've got that much going.
I don't want to kill your hope. I don't share it, but maybe you can muster enough for both of us.
A sure way to know an unreliable source
Lol exactly, no one knows the future. That's the problem with inductive reasoning and the philosophical idea of the absurd.
We'll see won't we?
Yes, I guess we will find out if you're the world's only legitimate soothsayer with an outcome you've predicted that has 50/50 odds of coming true.
That's not how odds work. The fact there are only two outcomes does not mean the odds of each of those outcomes occurring is the same...
Yes, the braindead thing you're saying you can predict the future. As a remotely reasonable person, I dispute this laughable idea.
You're confusing the average American with the republikkklown voters. That's not even close to average. The average voter knows he's a racist rapist with 34 felonies that caused a failed insurrection. They won't forget. They will vote and your wanna be dictator will do what he's best at... LOSING.
I know you want to stick me in that bubble to make yourself feel better. I hated Donald Trump long before 2016. I knew about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein before that name was even in the public lexicon. I've been following the downfall of the Amerikan Empire since as long as I have been politically aware. This is just the latest dominoe to fall.
I don't care who you say you hate, when you're spitting bullshit, it's still bullshit. I'm betting your ip address without a vpn would be very interesting, amirite?
Whatever you are implying you should just come out and say it. You think I'm a Russian troll? You think I'm astroturfing? Think whatever you want. I literally couldn't give a fuck less.