809
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 13 Jul 2024
809 points (96.4% liked)
News
23267 readers
2412 users here now
Welcome to the News community!
Rules:
1. Be civil
Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.
2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.
Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.
3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.
Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.
4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.
Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.
5. Only recent news is allowed.
Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.
6. All posts must be news articles.
No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.
7. No duplicate posts.
If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.
8. Misinformation is prohibited.
Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.
9. No link shorteners.
The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.
10. Don't copy entire article in your post body
For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Then you are incredibly historically naive. He was already winning by every available metric. So, if nothing had changed at all there was already an extremely high likelihood of him being reelected. This only serves to further strengthen his chances.
I don't think people really understand how stupid, brainwashed, and weak minded the average American truly is. There are plenty of people who will vote for him because surviving an assassination attempt makes him look strong. Count on it.
I just looked for myself, and NPR/PBS survey has Biden ahead. Many other polls have it basically tied. A few have Trump in the lead by 2-3 points.
I wouldn't personally call that winning by every available metric, although I would agree with you that it looks like Trump has a slight lead.
Were those national popular vote polls? If so, you have to factor in the electoral advantage Republicans have. If the national popular vote is tied, Republicans will win.
Individual polls are meaningless. I only care about the trends of the the aggregate polling. Five Thirty Eight has had Trump leading by an average of 2 points in aggregate polling basically from the beginning. There has never been a time where Biden was ahead during this election cycle. Therefore, using the available metrics it is clear that Donald Trump is on the path to returning to the White House.
You sure about that?
You linked to the 2016 election. Here are the adjusted values for 2024.
I did link 2016, showing that Clinton had a bigger lead than the rapist with 34 felonies has now. How'd that turn out again?
You could make points without calling the other person naive. No need to make the internet a worse place.
As far as "every available metric" goes, you're talking polls, and polls are garbage. Every poll had Clinton winning in late October 2016.
And we're in an unprecedented portion of politics in American history, so bringing up historical measurements doesn't convince me like you think it would.
More Reddit-y here by the day…
Looks a lot like the propaganda trolls got tired of arguing with each other and branched out here.
We will see who did the proper analysis in 4 months time. I'm really hoping it won't be me. Unfortunately, I am also certain that I am correct.
I'm not certain at all, which scares me all the same. Tho the last ten years still hasn't beaten the hope out of me, so I've got that much going.
I don't want to kill your hope. I don't share it, but maybe you can muster enough for both of us.
A sure way to know an unreliable source
Lol exactly, no one knows the future. That's the problem with inductive reasoning and the philosophical idea of the absurd.
We'll see won't we?
Yes, I guess we will find out if you're the world's only legitimate soothsayer with an outcome you've predicted that has 50/50 odds of coming true.
That's not how odds work. The fact there are only two outcomes does not mean the odds of each of those outcomes occurring is the same...
Yes, the braindead thing you're saying you can predict the future. As a remotely reasonable person, I dispute this laughable idea.
You're confusing the average American with the republikkklown voters. That's not even close to average. The average voter knows he's a racist rapist with 34 felonies that caused a failed insurrection. They won't forget. They will vote and your wanna be dictator will do what he's best at... LOSING.
I know you want to stick me in that bubble to make yourself feel better. I hated Donald Trump long before 2016. I knew about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein before that name was even in the public lexicon. I've been following the downfall of the Amerikan Empire since as long as I have been politically aware. This is just the latest dominoe to fall.
I don't care who you say you hate, when you're spitting bullshit, it's still bullshit. I'm betting your ip address without a vpn would be very interesting, amirite?
Whatever you are implying you should just come out and say it. You think I'm a Russian troll? You think I'm astroturfing? Think whatever you want. I literally couldn't give a fuck less.