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this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2024
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They can't organize because they hate each other just as much as they hate anyone else. They all have opinions on the way things should be, but no no two of them can decide what those things are. It would just descend into a bunch of factions all fighting each other until everyone else gets sick of them and just drops a bomb on them.
They seem to think that their AKs are going to have any effect against a modern military. They wouldn't even be presented with a target.
They think if they stand up with a bunch of AKs, the modern military will defect to their side.
But US military propaganda is it's own thing. It's like assuming Yankees and Red Sox fans will both root for you because we all like baseball together.
Worked pretty well in Afghanistan
The highway system in america was built by Eisenhower after he came back from Europe because he saw how awesome the Autobahn was for moving tanks across the country. That's why they're raised like that, to support heavy tanks and artillery.
American military can project force within the United States in a way that it couldn't within Afghanistan.
Projection of force is more or less meaningless in a guerilla war
It's central to a guerrilla war. Force projection is how guerrillas win. If you're just stuck up in the hills, sucking your own dicks, nobody cares that you're in opposition.
The Afghanis are poor. Poor people can survive things that wealthy people can't. Do you know how to grow your own food and live in a cave? Even if you did are you willing to?
The Afghanis believe in an afterlife, not as an abstraction, but as a real place. Die in combat and go to heaven. If I die in combat I know I am not going anywhere but the ground.
The civilian population was willing to help the Taliban out. Even if one civilian wasn't the Taliban were a real issue that would murder them while NATO would drop by once a month with some bags of flour and weren't willing to torture your kid to get you to help them.
It isn't the same situation at all. Gravy-seals aren't going to be willing to live in the woods for 15 years. They are not going to have help from the local population. They aren't addicted to glowing rectangles with tracking on them. They aren't willing to go fling themselves into death to get 70 virgins.
You really can't win a war against a poor country. Because their population can live off the land. If you still don't believe me just mentally picture yourself on a camping trip for 15 years avoiding the cops the whole time while still getting away with random terrorism.
Give or take a few hundred thousand dead Afghanis, sure.
The occupation was intolerable to generations of locals, but multiple generations died in order to force the occupation out. In the end, the US only left because they lost their resupply corridors through China, Russia, and Pakistan, thanks to exciting new wars breaking out on other sides of the globe.
That's the entire point of guerilla warfare, keep the pressure on until yot opponent loses their will or needs their troops elsewhere