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Senate is 49 R, 48 D, with 3 I. Sanders, King and Sinema.
So if Sinema or Manchin flipped, that would be 50 R and Mitch is back.
No, those 3 Independents caucus with Democrats and vote with Democrats for the purposes of organizing the Senate. So it is effectively 51-49 for the purpose of establishing the Senate Leadership. One flip makes it 50-50, and then Harris spends a lot more time in the Senate.