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The U.S. Industrial Base Is Not Prepared for a Possible Conflict with China
(features.csis.org)
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this post was submitted on 07 Mar 2024
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The idea that the US could even hope to “resolve key challenges” here is laughable. China is too far ahead in manufacturing and companies aren’t willing to spend the massive amounts of money required to expand manufacturing in the US.
they might have to hire people, and then train them
gross
Or even spend money on factories instead of stock buybacks.
Yeah, this is delusional beyond belief. Most people don't realize just how dependent on China US is today. For example:
https://edconway.substack.com/p/globalisation-is-a-far-far-bigger
Love when my grand interconnected system is really a single point of failure
Posting numbers from 2018 is an insufficient insight into the situation though as there has been reported increased decoupling following covid.
US industrial output is currently shrinking, the decoupling is just talk with no substance to it
Right because (as I understand it) the decoupling is shifting to nearshore/friendshore operations like Mexico and Japan.
Not when you account for intermediate inputs. While end products might be made in Mexico or Japan, those will almost certainly rely in intermediate components manufactured in China:
https://edconway.substack.com/p/globalisation-is-a-far-far-bigger
Right and that chart only goes up to 2018 so I'd like to see a similar chart updated for post covid. Do you happen to know of one?
I don't have a more up to date one, but I would bet money that nothing fundamentally changed in the past 5 years.
I mean a lot has fundamentally changed in the last 5 years... 🤷
Nothing has fundamentally changed in terms of supply chains in US that rely on China.
This is question begging.
Feel free to provide evidence to support your unsubstantiated claims. So far it looks like what's actually happening US is actively becoming more dependent on China. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308390.shtml
I'm not making claims. I'm asking for more info because what you gave was insufficient.
You literally claimed things changed fundamentally earlier without any evidence to back that up. You haven't even bothered to substantiate your assertion that the ample evidence you were already provided with is insufficient.
Incorrect. I said that there is reported decoupling. Your chart doesn't cover the period of the supposed decoupling so I'm requesting information that covers that period too. That is all I have said or requested. Quote me otherwise. I've been very careful with how I've written.
Unless you can provide actual evidence that some dramatic changed happened during that period, then there's no point to continue this discussion. Your whole argument hinges on an assumption that you've provided no basis for.
I don't have to provide evidence because I am not the one making assertions.
You literally are making assertions.
Quote me.
I am not asserting there is decoupling. There is reported decoupling and I'm asking for a counter perspective. This really isn't that hard.
post a link to this “reported decoupling”. a link with data, not speculation. the users above provided data of a trend of increased reliance on China for manufacturing inputs. if you have data that indicates the trend has reversed, show it to us. otherwise, you are just mindlessly guessing
Bro, do you understand what a request for information is, or is everything a debate to you?
dont "bro" me. also ur the one being a debate pedant. users gave data about trade with China. then you made a claim that there was "reported decoupling" but didnt provide evidence. not only did you not provide evidence for decoupling, you didnt even provide evidence for the supposed reports. arguing in bad faith is against CoC. so stop being a debate pervert, stop arguing for the sake of arguing, and stop assuming you dont have to support your claims
Why are you like this?
I am not asserting decoupling. I am saying that I have been told there is decoupling by others and I'm asking for a counter perspective. This really isn't that hard.
You said that there has been reported decoupling. That is an assertion. The fact that you are trying to worm your way out of it by way of semantics is just sad.
Here is an example of this reporting: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/what-is-us-china-decoupling-and-how-is-it-happening
TO BE CLEAR I AM NOT I AGREEMENT WITH THIS LINK. I AM NOT TAKING A POSITION ON THIS MATTER. I AM ONLY REQUESTING AN ALTERNATIVE VIEWPOINT BECAUSE I WANT TO BE INFORMED. THIS IS NOT A DEBATE.
Good on you, you were able to post an article. Why did we have to go thru so much tooth pulling to get here?
Because i am not advocating for a position. You can Google it yourself dude.
You are now again trying to worm your way out. No one has said you are advocating for a position. You made assertions and you maintained you had not made any. You maintained you did not have anything to share, nor did you have to share anything. You are now trying to make it into seeming as if the disagreement was one of misunderstanding, where it was believed you held these positions, which you now claim you do not. this is worm behaviour.
No moron, you think you're in a debate because youre a keyboard warrior going aggro at the slightest interrupt of your circle jerk.
The only "assertion" I've made is that there has been reporting that there is decoupling between China and the US economies. And this is true! There is reporting! I'm not even claiming the reporting is correct, I've only requested alternative perspectives with evidence! That is all.
I have been very clear and up front from the beginning. You however are a dog chasing parked cars.
The issue is not a misunderstanding. It's you being an idiot.
I have not taken a stance anywhere in this thread about whether or not China and the US are decoupling. If this was otherwise you could prove it with a quote. But you can't. Because you're trying to fight someone who isn't interested in a debate. Idiot.
Buddy we're not in a debate. You lied and you kept pretending to not have lied, which I held you to. You then finally did the bare minimum and I asked why it had to be such a task for you to do the bare minimum.
I didn't read the rest of your response because it's clear you're trying to fabricate situations and discussions out of thin air for which I have no interest. You were doing wormy debatelord shit and you are trying to do wormy debatelord shit. Eat dirt.
I'm literally the one saying this isn't a debate, dude.
I didn't lie. You're just an idiot.
You straight made assertions, said you didn't make assertions, got told you did, asked to be quoted, got quoted, and started insisting we were having a debate (by way of insisting that you were not interested in having a debate, thereby implying we were having one) about the assertion YOU MADE and struggled so hard to not post a single piece of proof of existing. When you finally share a single article you start talking about not having a debate, as if we've at any point discussed anything but the fact that you are acting as a debatelord.
We haven't at any point talked about the assertion itself, merely the fact that you keep making them and somehow you feels as if you don't. After finally doing the bare minimum which you ask of others, you try to make it out to be as if something else is going on.
I will now block you. Goodbye.
The only assertion I made was that there had been reporting of decoupling. I did not assert there had been decoupling. If you can't understand the difference between those two then I really can't help you. At worst I spoke sloppy to a pendant.
No way, jack
holy shit
You’d need to build new facilities and train people up to run lathes and whatnot. On top of that weapons aren’t made with steel and wood anymore so you’ll need to teach them some light programming too in order to mill your M4 receivers. In short America is fucked because free training in a high skill job is sacrilege here.
I mean depending on how badly america wants to arm a million conscripts they might bring back open bolt stamped sheet metal rifles again. This is the land of idiot elites after all.
I miss the grease gun. One of the greatest of all time.