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this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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Do they realize President Biden can nationalize the national guard at the border and tell them to go home if he so chooses?
Any guardsmen that would actually go to TX and support TX would be unlikely to follow the stand down order. I’m kind of curious how many would just follow orders going both directions.
It's probably not as clear-cut as your making it out to be. These would be actually armed forces personnel, subject to all of the rules, regulations, chain of command, disciplinary consequences, etc. that come with that.
Yes, they could possibly make an argument that they have a duty to disobey illegal orders, but not a totally clear-cut, black-and-white one, they'd likely still be looking at arrest, courts-martial, etc. if they straight-up refuse to deploy to Texas. They're people with lives, family, regular jobs, etc. that would very likely have to get put on hold while everything gets sorted out and they may not necessarily come out on top. Depending on the exact context, it's probably going to be hard to make an argument that simply going to Texas would be an illegal order.
So if it happens, you can probably expect damn-near every guardsman from those states to go to Texas if they're ordered to.
What they're ordered to do once they're there is probably where they'd have a stronger case, but even still they'd have to carefully thread that needle if they want to avoid prison, dishonorable discharge, etc. There's a lot they could be ordered to do that would be very objectionable but not quite meet the legal bar of being an illegal order that they'd be obligated to disobey.
They can't exactly say no to going to TX, can they? It's not going to be all soldiers who support the idea.
They can't say no to the general order to deploy. But the second they're nationalized they have cover to follow the federal orders and ignore illegal orders from the governor.
Yeah, and what if they refuse?
Military courts are generally less kind than civilian ones.
It's not easy to drag 19000 armed and trained men in front of a court where they might face the death penalty.
Luckily the military is uniquely equipped to do that.
They'd be losing access to the most critical thing that makes them effective: the US military's logistics and chain of command. Without that they really are just some dudes with guns and a few fancy toys they won't be able to keep operational or replace. And they could never leave the state.
So as long as they aren't causing too much trouble ... just wait them out, then make an example of them in a military court.
There is no chance the officers refuse a direct order from the president.
Do you really think the soldiers want to sweat their asses off in the desert all day stringing razor wire?
Are they going to risk jail and losing their benefits?
There must be a lot of non-Americans commenting here. I've been seeing lots of questions like "what if they don't stand down?" There's no way that's happening because there's very little economic safety net in the US.
If they lose their benefits and pension, these soldiers' families are destitute. Texas doesn't have any money to pay for that. Imagine the Guard as Texas's older brother. But Joe Biden is Mom about to ground everyone in sight. Why would you risk losing the car keys on Friday night?
A few switchblades should tidy things up in a very messy way
The problem with political decisions like that is you're really hoping the National Guard complies with the President when the governor demands they ignore the President.
That's not a gut check anyone wants to try without going through everything else first.
They'll comply instantly as soon as you shut down their borders. It took 48 hours of the southern border being closed before gw bush opened it back up.
Commerce is everything.
The instant they become federalized they fall under the Army, for National Guardsmen, and the Air Force, for Air National Guardsmen. If they refuse a direct order from the president they will be charged with disobeying a direct order and will get at minimum an general OTH discharge and any rogue officers would probably face a general court martial and be looking at a significant amount of time in Leavenworth followed by a bad conduct or dishonorable discharge.
Well yeah, that's the way it's supposed to work. But in a situation where a significant portion refuse on the Governor's request they'll likely just be transferred to a state militia with a promise the state will cover their lost benefits. Any federal attempt to arrest them for desertion will meet the state police and militia guarding the guys.
In short it's a real quick way to actually kick off a civil war. That doesn't mean Biden can't do it. He just can't fuck it up if he does.