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this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2023
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The stock market is historically overvalued right now. The long-term direction is downwards, not upwards.
That's an interesting take. What do you base your prediction on?
It is well above historical valuations. Ultimately, the problem is that you simply won't get much of an ROI if you keep on investing on stocks at these valuations. So the natural trend is for people to move away from stocks,
So you sent me down a rabbit hole and I agree with you. I think the market is overvalued. For me the question is now what does that mean and I see three possible options: 1) market trends down to equilibrium 2) market quickly drops to equilibrium & 3) market over corrects and goes below equilibrium. It looks like from the great recession until 2015 we were under valued and valuation has spiked since then except for the COVID drop, which brought us again to equilibrium. I think #2 is the most likely scenario. I'm not going to pull my retirement accounts out but I'm going to keep an eye on this. Thanks for the heads up
Interest rates are pretty good right now. It isn't hard to find an account at 4.75% to 5% interest. While stocks will do better over the long term, if you don't trust them then this is also a solid option.
I will add that I still think we are due for a correction but that comes from the major stocks warming that the current quarter sales are gonna look ugly, even grocery stores have been warning that overall sales on amount and expense are down. Discount groceries sure are taking off too. I don't know how much of a dip but I think the post black Friday numbers might cause a short term slump on a lot of retail stocks
Inflation will hurt Christmas sales for sure. We're buying less at my house
not who are responding to but price to earnings ratio is high.