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The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth
(www.bbc.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
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Why would China start anything if they haven't started anything in 50 years? What if another 50 years goes by and China still hasn't started anything? Isn't that just a waste of weapons?
Remember Hong Kong?
I remember there being protests. I fail to see how hong Kong is relevant.
I think the argument is that there wasn't any movement to take control of Hong Kong and replace its basically independent government for years. Until there was.
Same with the whole China Sea expansion. Circumstances can change on a dime and the optimal outcome is if nothing happens.
Hong Kong had become a safe haven for corrupt capitalists and politicians so China decided to start extradition to the mainland so they could be put in jail instead of bribing they're way out of every change. Hong Kong still has plenty of autonomy.
As for the Sea expansion, they claimed the 9 dash line after world war 2 and we've been arguing over it ever since. They're being reactive to America's constant provocation. Nothing will come of any of it though.
ask Tibet
ask Hong Kong
ask the Uighurs
Ask them what? About invading Taiwan?
Tibet is in a historical economic boom.
Tibet is ranked as the least-free country on Earth, with no political rights or civil liberties.
That's a lie perpetuated by Freedom House, a US funded propaganda machine. Tibet not being a free country is like saying Hawaii isn't a free country. No shit, it's part of China. However, Tibet is an autonomous region with it's own governance and laws. The Dalai Lama is just upset because he lost his kingdom and his slaves.
Tldr: Tibet is far from the least free country on Earth because it is neither a country, nor is it bad.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Tibet
I read that, then I see just a short video and it doesn't match up. https://youtu.be/F9UE3ou0H4o?si=jP0BbWZyjwML-nkc
And then here's another: https://youtu.be/h71gbW5Nxzw?si=mGeANQ5T0WWI4Xkt
They would start something for the same reason Russia started something in Ukraine.
The goal is that another 50 years go by and they don't start shit.
That's a brain broken analysis. You think one country would invade another because of what happened with two completely separate countries? I guess by that analysis, the US is going to invade Mexico and England will invade Ireland any day now.
You are being very obviously obtuse, and it's really funny.
Well I'm acuter than you
Because I'm the last 50 years they didn't have a military powerful enough to assure a swift and painless victory. That's the whole point of why china keeps increasing their military and why Taiwan needs to do the same. The moment China has a critical force, they'll attack, they have announced it loudly and repeatedly in the past decades.
China could have invaded Taiwan ages ago and won very swiftly. The plans were drawn up and everything. China very big. Much people. Taiwan very small. Not so many people.
Even if the US intervened? Because they said they would ages ago.
Also, you can have a billion people in the army, but you first need to cross the sea without getting exploded, and keep resupplying your men until Taiwan and US capitulation. This is not something china could do "ages ago"
Well, China was the winner of the civil war, so they did win. It was just determined that after so many decades of fighting and war, it was time to stop and focus on rebuilding China. As for their military might, you underestimate China's capabilities and technology. It's not just a country of a bunch of people with bolt action rifles. They're military technology is on par with the US and they're not spread thin.
I never said they didn't win the civil war, although they did try to take Taiwan during the civil war, when the KMT fled mainland China, and just failed. In the battle of Guningtou the PRC tried to take the small islands right on the shores of mainland China, much much closer than Formosa, and got defeated right there. For context the islands of Kinmen are just 10km away from mainland China, and 190km away from Taiwan. Amphibious attacks are fucking hard, I tell you. Way harder than you think.
Russia was thought to have the second most powerful army in the world, and to some respects they did, yet they got bogged down in Ukraine, lost organization and just got stuck in a shit position while losing hundreds of thousands of men and equipment. And Ukraine is a flat terrain with hundreds of km of frontline, it's not a bottleneck 200km away from shore with no logistics support.
To pull off an amphibious attack of this magnitude you'd probably need 5 to 10 times the military prowess of the enemy and impeccable organization and logistics, plus complete control of the skies. Right now China cannot simply waltz in and take it, it would be a brutal war with millions of deaths, untold destruction on both sides and a possible escalation to a world war (too many countries rely on Taiwans and Chinese microchips for way too many things).
I'm just refuting this claim, nothing more. I'm not saying the Chinese army isn't powerful or doesn't have huge numbers. Actually, I'm saying it is, which is why Taiwan, Japan and SK are rearming themselves at breakneck pace. To deter a possible act of aggression from a country that keeps building up their military and keeps talking about invading.
China failed that invasion because they barely had a Navy. Ukraine might be flat land, but it's also swamp land that vehicles have a hard time crossing. Russia's military is also in shambles due to decades of corruption in their military technology development. China's tanks don't just fall apart and stop working like Russia's does. China also has an incredibly advanced air force.
All that being said, this is all built on internal politics within Taiwan. The democratic party in Taiwan wants to join the West and the US is glad to send military equipment if it means another proxy war to profit off of. The KMT party wants to stick with China and China is happy to continue supporting them until they can get the mainland development of microchips in order. Everything else is political fluff and military posturing. China is buying time until they can call Taiwan's bluff because Taiwan cannot survive without China. China could turn Taiwan into the next Cuba and never need to invade in the first place.
No, that's the whole point. It's like nukes. The nuke itself isn't the big deal, your ownership of one is. If a country was threatening to invade you, and you responded by threatening to nuke them if they do, they'll stand down.
It's the same idea here. The weapons are a deterrent. It's a sheathed sword to tell your enemy that you're armed and able to defend yourself. We don't actually want to use the weapons. It's a threat that there's plenty of firepower to fight an invasion.
The only thing like nukes is nukes. The thing deterring China from invading Taiwan is how intertwined their economies are. China has no reason to invade Taiwan. Taiwan buys a ton of things from China and sells them microchips. They have a symbiotic relationship.