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The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth
(www.bbc.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
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China could have invaded Taiwan ages ago and won very swiftly. The plans were drawn up and everything. China very big. Much people. Taiwan very small. Not so many people.
Even if the US intervened? Because they said they would ages ago.
Also, you can have a billion people in the army, but you first need to cross the sea without getting exploded, and keep resupplying your men until Taiwan and US capitulation. This is not something china could do "ages ago"
Well, China was the winner of the civil war, so they did win. It was just determined that after so many decades of fighting and war, it was time to stop and focus on rebuilding China. As for their military might, you underestimate China's capabilities and technology. It's not just a country of a bunch of people with bolt action rifles. They're military technology is on par with the US and they're not spread thin.
I never said they didn't win the civil war, although they did try to take Taiwan during the civil war, when the KMT fled mainland China, and just failed. In the battle of Guningtou the PRC tried to take the small islands right on the shores of mainland China, much much closer than Formosa, and got defeated right there. For context the islands of Kinmen are just 10km away from mainland China, and 190km away from Taiwan. Amphibious attacks are fucking hard, I tell you. Way harder than you think.
Russia was thought to have the second most powerful army in the world, and to some respects they did, yet they got bogged down in Ukraine, lost organization and just got stuck in a shit position while losing hundreds of thousands of men and equipment. And Ukraine is a flat terrain with hundreds of km of frontline, it's not a bottleneck 200km away from shore with no logistics support.
To pull off an amphibious attack of this magnitude you'd probably need 5 to 10 times the military prowess of the enemy and impeccable organization and logistics, plus complete control of the skies. Right now China cannot simply waltz in and take it, it would be a brutal war with millions of deaths, untold destruction on both sides and a possible escalation to a world war (too many countries rely on Taiwans and Chinese microchips for way too many things).
I'm just refuting this claim, nothing more. I'm not saying the Chinese army isn't powerful or doesn't have huge numbers. Actually, I'm saying it is, which is why Taiwan, Japan and SK are rearming themselves at breakneck pace. To deter a possible act of aggression from a country that keeps building up their military and keeps talking about invading.
China failed that invasion because they barely had a Navy. Ukraine might be flat land, but it's also swamp land that vehicles have a hard time crossing. Russia's military is also in shambles due to decades of corruption in their military technology development. China's tanks don't just fall apart and stop working like Russia's does. China also has an incredibly advanced air force.
All that being said, this is all built on internal politics within Taiwan. The democratic party in Taiwan wants to join the West and the US is glad to send military equipment if it means another proxy war to profit off of. The KMT party wants to stick with China and China is happy to continue supporting them until they can get the mainland development of microchips in order. Everything else is political fluff and military posturing. China is buying time until they can call Taiwan's bluff because Taiwan cannot survive without China. China could turn Taiwan into the next Cuba and never need to invade in the first place.