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She'll go for Schumers seat. The Democrats need a dude to run against the republican. Shooting yourself in the foot by having a woman run is not worth the risk to the fate of the country. The handicap from the sexist assholes is just too great to overcome.
That's the frank games theory we've proven this decade.
I think it has been debunked that a woman or person of color is why we lost. Key to note: Anyone who was a true sexist racist piece of shit was already core maga and never, ever going to vote for any Democrat.
People must remember that nobody has polled higher against Trump -- ever -- than Michelle Obama. IF she wants to run (and a big if), she would win. Just need a tad bit more charisma.
(If anyone has any evidence whatsoever beyond speculation or shoddy N=2 statistics, I'm all ears, but I have not found evidence).
When was that debunked? How? If you genuinely think misogyny and misogynoir weren't part of why Hillary and Kamala lost then I've got a bridge to sell you.
Go ahead and sell me that bridge because there is a complete and total lack of evidence to support the claim. Can't really prove a counterfactual. Others made the claim she lost because of this; when asked for evidence, they always come up short.
Counterpoints:
Biden polled worse than Harris at the end. (White Guy polling worse than Black Woman). Hence the switch in the first place, even Biden agreed!
Michelle Obama has always polled higher than anyone against Trump (Black Woman polling better than White Guy).
Oh so you're just operating under the assumption that nobody who would otherwise vote for a democrat is sexist or racist in one of the most overtly provably sexist and racist countries on earth. But go ahead and claim that racism and misogyny aren't incredibly relevant factors in every election. There are more undecided/moderate/non voters that are racist and misogynistic than there are republicans. It's fucking stupid to pretend that wasn't a factor. Don't be fucking stupid.
Still no evidence, and an increased propensity for aggression and ad hominems substituting said total lack of evidence, I see. Lots of fingers-in-ear denial and deflection as well.
I win.
Like a pigeon playing chess you knock over the pieces, shit all over the board and think you won. Good job pigeon.
Uh dude like more than 5% of the party didn't show up, and a bunch of male Democrats that identify as Latin or African American didn't vote for her because she was a woman.
Both Kamala and Clinton were two of the most qualified people to have run for president, and they were fucking beaten by the worst candidate in the history of politics.
I don't want to risk it.
Uh, dude show me your evidence this was the reason lol.
I'm going to give you a hint: You won't find it. This is straight up bull fucking shit and 100% speculative.
I highly advise you not to make such blatant non-sequitur fallacies devoid of any supportive data. I can think of at least a half a dozen other reasons for why people voted or didn't vote the way they did that actually has data with infinitely less distance to connect the dots than what you're doing right now.
We don't know the why, but it was a big swing among men of color:
https://navigatorresearch.org/2024-post-election-survey-racial-analysis-of-2024-election-results/
The largest shifts in support were seen among men, particularly men of color. Donald Trump won the vote of Hispanic men by one point (49 percent Harris – 50 percent Trump), a 35-point difference from 2020, when Joe Biden won the vote of Hispanic men by a 34-point margin. Similarly, there was a 35-point difference in how Black men voted in 2024 compared to 2020. While Black men voted for Harris in 2024 by a 47-point margin (71 percent Harris – 24 percent Trump), it was significantly less than Biden who won the vote of Black men by an 82-point margin over Trump in 2020. White men also moved toward Trump by 5 points (net +23; 37 percent Harris – 60 percent Trump), compared to his margin of 18 points in 2020 (40 percent Harris – 58 percent Trump).
Without some very careful probing via polls, getting to the why is going to be harder, most likely. Not too many people are just going to be absolutely candid about being sexist.
The Navigator Research numbers here are worth scrutinizing. They claim Biden won Hispanic men by 34 points in 2020. That's a massive outlier. AP VoteCast, which surveyed 110,000+ voters, found Biden won Hispanic men by roughly ~10-12 points. Other sources like Pew and Edison exit polls show similar single-digit to low-double-digit margins, not 34 points. A 35-point shift would be historically unprecedented.
Edison Research (official NEP exit poll provider): Biden won Latino men 59%-36% (+23) in 2020.
https://www.edisonresearch.com/latino-male-voters-shift-toward-trump-in-2024-election/
Pew Research Center (validated voter study): Biden won Hispanics overall 59%-38% (+21) in 2020.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory
AP VoteCast: "About 6 in 10 Latino men went for Biden" in 2020 (~60%, roughly +20 margin).
https://apnews.com/article/election-harris-trump-women-latinos-black-voters-0f3fbda3362f3dcfe41aa6b858f22d12
The key weakness is that Navigator uses recalled 2020 vote data from a 2024 survey and their 34-point figure is contradicted by every major contemporaneous survey of the 2020 electorate.
I have some insight as to why. As someone who canvassed, who actively spoke to Hispanic activists for Trump in person no less. Though I'll leave that alone considering its anecdotal nature unless you're interested.
Statistically, these groups -- men across the board -- are significantly less educated and thus susceptible to misinformation. They were explicitly targeted from GamerGate and onward.
If you break down exit-polling, you'll find a key factor in predicting how someone voted was in fact their education attainment and less so their gender or skin color.
Does that mean they were less likely to vote for Harris? Yes, but it also means they'd be less likely to vote for any Democrat. More importantly, those who are actual bigots voting on pretenses of skin color or sex were core maga already.
Put it another way: An Old White Guy Joe Biden was polling worse than Harris. At the same time, Reuters polling has always shown Michelle Obama -- female person of color -- to poll higher against Trump than literally anyone. Ever.
I'd be curious as to how the numbers might shake out if it is for a generic male candidate and a generic female candidate...again, might be hard to determine, as people are not as likely to be honest about it.