The Navigator Research numbers here are worth scrutinizing. They claim Biden won Hispanic men by 34 points in 2020. That's a massive outlier. AP VoteCast, which surveyed 110,000+ voters, found Biden won Hispanic men by roughly ~10-12 points. Other sources like Pew and Edison exit polls show similar single-digit to low-double-digit margins, not 34 points. A 35-point shift would be historically unprecedented.
The key weakness is that Navigator uses recalled 2020 vote data from a 2024 survey and their 34-point figure is contradicted by every major contemporaneous survey of the 2020 electorate.
The Navigator Research numbers here are worth scrutinizing. They claim Biden won Hispanic men by 34 points in 2020. That's a massive outlier. AP VoteCast, which surveyed 110,000+ voters, found Biden won Hispanic men by roughly ~10-12 points. Other sources like Pew and Edison exit polls show similar single-digit to low-double-digit margins, not 34 points. A 35-point shift would be historically unprecedented.
Edison Research (official NEP exit poll provider): Biden won Latino men 59%-36% (+23) in 2020.
https://www.edisonresearch.com/latino-male-voters-shift-toward-trump-in-2024-election/
Pew Research Center (validated voter study): Biden won Hispanics overall 59%-38% (+21) in 2020.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory
AP VoteCast: "About 6 in 10 Latino men went for Biden" in 2020 (~60%, roughly +20 margin).
https://apnews.com/article/election-harris-trump-women-latinos-black-voters-0f3fbda3362f3dcfe41aa6b858f22d12
The key weakness is that Navigator uses recalled 2020 vote data from a 2024 survey and their 34-point figure is contradicted by every major contemporaneous survey of the 2020 electorate.