This week's summary of the situation is in spoiler tags below:
preamble
Diplomacy between Iran and the US has begun in... perhaps not earnest, but it's certainly started. Iran's very reasonable requirement that the Zionist occupation stop ethnically cleansing Lebanon and withdraw has caused a great deal of consternation throughout their population, and several analysts have suggested that Netanyahu being forced to accept Trump's (and therefore Iran's) demands spells the end of his leadership in the coming elections; then, the occupation is expected to "mellow out" and the conflicts and genocides slow and stop. This view is only really impactful if you believe that, rather than the US and Zionists being in a strongly mutually beneficial relationship based on geopolitical, financial, and clandestine goals, that instead Netanyahu is a devious mastermind bending any and all in the US to his whims. I don't believe this; and, if anything, the events of at least the last three years prove that he's really quite stupid, with "Israel" being in its worst position in decades under his rule.
Nonetheless, Iran has made the issue of Lebanon a not-quite-red-line (an orange line?). It hasn't stopped them from going to Switzerland and beginning negotiations, but they still want to strongly express their discontent by harnessing the newfound superweapon that is Hormuz. Similarly, threats by Trump and others to restart the war if Iran doesn't bend to their whims have been met with formal stoppages of negotiations, but it appears technical teams are still talking to each other and working things out. Trump's threats are fairly idle at this point because most in the US military must know that there's essentially zero effective military actions left to them with their current munition stockpiles.
Trump let slip that the US has about 3-4 weeks of oil reserves left, which aligns moderately well with the projections of analysts like Yves at Naked Capitalism (it's now expected in late July rather than early July as was originally forecasted months ago). This means that even if the negotiation process goes off without a hitch, that there's going to be a period of at least a few weeks where the US is out of reserves but is waiting for new shipments of oil to physically traverse the distance between Hormuz and the US continent. And many analysts have pointed out that it's going to be a long time - at least a few months, and perhaps more like 9 to 12 - before Hormuz flows pick up to pre-war levels, due to logistics companies and insurance companies wanting to be sure that their property isn't going to be blown up mid-transit. Regardless, the fact that the timetable is now so tight could indicate that the Trump admin has finally realized that it cannot outbluff and outwait Iran, and will give them a good deal out of necessity, even if this means forcing their unsinkable aircraft carrier to stop bombing children for five consecutive minutes.
However, there is a palpable anxiety throughout Iran right now, especially due to controversy over the degree to which Khamenei actually agreed with the current course of events. This does seem to be confirmed by his wording (to paraphrase): "In principle, I took a different view, but allowed the President to proceed." Many inside Iran now have more fear that their politicians will not push hard enough for a good deal than that they'll return to war, with all that may imply. This isn't an unfounded fear, especially given how suddenly the 12 Day War ended despite Iran's strengths being medium-and-long-term attrition (now confirmed by this latest war). This is one of those events that reveals how the Supreme Leader in fact doesn't have complete dictatorial power unlike how he's conceived of in much of the West, and that even during existential wars, major concessions have to be made to democratically elected leaders. Though, this could also be a clever move to shift blame explicitly onto the Reformist elements if the deal collapses.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I just read American Apocalypse: A History of Modern Evangelicalism, there was a lot about the early history I didn't know about, like how it started mostly because WW1 basically validated the beliefs of a lot of people that thought the world was ending soon, and how a lot of them were actually pacifists and not christian nationalists, but around WW2 evangelicals became what we know them as today, although there was temporarily an active left-wing faction during the american civil rights era. It delves into just how much they become one of if not the strongest interest group around the Reagan era, and how oddly it must've felt to have a president that thought the world was gonna end, that was the craziest part to me I didn't know that a central tenet of fundamentalism and evangelicals is that they're actively waiting for the world to end, and making decisions around that, kinda reminded me of a, not totally illogical, tendency of some internet leftists to predict a kind of final crisis which ushers in socialism in our lifetimes.
The book end during obama's second term, so it doesn't delve into how the movement is currently doing, and personally I hear a lot less about them that I did during trump 1. So what do people here think, has it all been subsumed into trumpism? Or has it been subsumed into zionism, with the original christian message becoming secondary? Is it spreading or decreasing inside america?
More importantly to me, is it actually spreading OUTSIDE north america? Part of why I started reading this was because I heard that it was, mostly to south america, and the overly emotional tone and messianism of american fundamentalists reminded me of the far-right here in portugal (which isn't protestant).
It’s all over the place in Latin America and probably a huge reason for the massive increase in “israel”-worshipping gusanos there and why every presidential election is a 50-50 split between adolfo mchitler xvi (pedophile, drug dealer, death squad member) and roberto sanchez (indigenous union leader, social democrat).
the evangelical movement in Latin America is straight up a psyop ran by the CIA to dismantle the liberation theology movement.
Also considering how much time the US has spent going on military "adventures" throughout LatAm its inevitable that you'd have some troops spreading evangelism to those countries.
And then you have missionaries and what not spreading the "word of god".
My cousin is partnered with an evangelical redneck who did missionary work in Central America and he was telling us about the family he was staying with when he was over there. He was talking about how he became great friends with the family and whatever and then he just casually drops that one of the parents worked in the intelligence agency and had worked with the CIA
Trump’s base is largely made of evangelicals; they didn’t go anywhere. If anything they have strengthened with the official state recognition afforded by having their guy elected twice as president.
Evangelicals have been inseparable from conservative politics since the Republican Party pushed the southern strategy in the wake of the civil rights era. The country was not divided neatly along partisan lines on the question of racial civil rights, so the Republican strategists sought electoral advantage by appealing to the grievances of white “moderates.” In the decades since, particularly starting with Obama’s election, this strategy intensified à la the Price Is Right dial.
The US has always been a haven for fanatical Christian sects, but this most proximately explains the current era imo.
Yep, this is exactly it. They have less of a spotlight shined on them because of Trump and have well-publicized L's like gay marriage being legalized, but they have gotten stronger if anything. What is the repeal of Roe v Wade but a complete political triumph of Evangelicalism? To your average Evangelical, the repeal was very much an "I prayed for moments like this" event.
Very much alive. Another good book on the topic is : Jesus and John Wayne
Wild Faith by Talia Levin is a more recent book and tracks things like their movement to abolish schools, teach the bible in public schools, anti-trans and anti-gay movements, etc.
This may do well as its own post outside of the news mega.
I was already in my way out the door in 2015-16 for various reasons, and the rise of Trump slammed the door against my heels.
My understanding is that Trump as well as queer issues introduced major splits among evangelicals, pretty much filtering for anyone who has even basic principles (including their principles as a Christian). Like I said I checked out in the front end of this, but it's basically like "Trump has your support [either fully or critically] or there's no room for you here".
It's also tough for this flavor of religion to mantain momentum in the internet age.
Because we are in Reagan's 8th or 10th term or whatever, and the evangelical bloc has a lot of wealthy white neoliberal Reaganites, their influence continues. They are also willing to tolerate fascism (as Zionist as the Jewish community, maybe more depending on how you count it, not to mention Trump, not to mention their homegrown Christian nationalism), so they'll have a lane for a while longer.
Not american, but in australia they're trying to stack the liberal (conservative) party, the PM we had in 2018-2022 was an evangelical nutter
i forget christians are a real thing in my day to day life
that's jehovah's witnesses, not mainline evangelicals, which themselves are not what was used to be mainline protestants. USA has been the epicenter of new churches/cults since the 18th century, with intense periods of changes referred to as "Great Awakenings". nowadays evangelicals have been absorbed into MAGA or various conspiracy theory currents, most prominently those that spawned off from Qanon. they're basically the worst people you know, and their numbers are dwindling despite the total number of religious people staying relatively flat. they also have a shaky alliance with tradcaths, but they are willing to throw them against the wall if they get the chance.
somewhat unrelated but almost any news that has a staying power is because of the zeal of these people. the only reason epstein files have been such a persistent presence in our discourse despite being a nothingburger is because of pizzagate people. "there has to be a elite ring of shadowy pedophiles running the world and sucking children's blood otherwise there is no reason for a rapture to happen and for jesus to kill all heathens." "the earth must be flat because my flawed translation of the bible said so and if every literal word of bible isn't true then rapture might not happens and the jews will never repent." and so on and so forth.
Yes, and that is why news about the red heifers broke out a few years back. The christian zionists are basically those evangelicals who are trying to "speed up God's time table" and "immanentize the eschaton" sooner.
I heard that's the reason for some Jewish Orthodox anti-Zionists when the project was first starting. According to them, you were supposed to let God cook. You're not supposed to go in and speed up God's plan artificially, that represented a supreme arrogance that bordered on blasphemy, at least according to them. It's like testing God, a thing you don't do. Don't remember where I read this, but it was a couple pieces.
Yes. In fact, you're thinking of the Neturei Karta:
(Sorry for the natopedia link) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neturei_Karta
They believe that Jews should remain in exile until the coming of the Messiah, who would then create a home for Jews. Anything else, as in Zionism and "Israel", is considered blasphemy.
Yes, South Korea, Africa (Even like Ethiopia), Ukraine, India and as you said South America.
Evangelicalism is a finely honed propaganda machine. Unlike in Europe where you had state mandated and state funded religions that were tempered by the state and grew indolent and docile fed by the state and ensconced within it, in the US Evangelicalism and Calvinism were honed into the finest indoctrination and control machines by the free market. They had to compete with other more boring interpretations of the religion and they came out on top. They introduced and used modern psychology to indoctrinate and break children and adults shamelessly and do to this day (Dobson among others). So yes it is spreading and it is a refined, dangerous virus, it is an organism that has been selected for fitness for purpose and is displacing existing more mellow Christian interpretations across the globe. It is an arm of American/western-Atlantacist soft power as well. It's explicitly anti-communist, worships the free market, etc.
I really don't think Evangelicalism can be subsumed into Trumpism. Maybe if Trump was 20 years younger and seized power in a coup and ruled as a strongman for decades it could happen but over this short period he's just a figure within it. He embraced it and has changed his manners of speaking, he panders to them not the other way around. Yes he's influenced them, changed them a little but they were always vulgar beneath the surface anyways. They were always full of animus and hate. It's attached at the hip to zionism. It could break with it in future possibly but zionism has been useful to it and it to zionism and as both function as forms of soft power for the US and its project they stick together. Besides zionists are slaughtering brown Muslims which these people see as a good thing.
In terms of the US it and most Christianity are in retreat. The youth are disillusioned, the contradictions are pretty high but there's still a radical core of supporters and they are dangerous and powerful. They situate themselves around the air force academy and have heavy infiltration of the US military and certain towering heights of industry so they wield outsized influence to their size and will continue to do so because they are organized and help each other and suppress outsiders.
They're just honest Christians. All Christians are members of a doomsday cult that is 2000 years past expiration. It started under Romans with the early Christians being woe is us because Romans were killing and torturing them and they wrote about how the world would end soon as part of all that. This past expiration fact leaves any Christian that is sincere and has studied and believes anxious because it's been an awful long time and it should therefore be happening soon right? Why would god let this go on forever. And you have problems like the undying Jew who must still be around or something. It either started as or morphed into a doomsday cult pretty early in its existence, mellowed out a little for a while but now is back on that (and it's been there before, the Black Death convinced a great many Christians the end of days had to be upon them).
Besides that there is this feeling that if their god flooded the world and smote cities in the past for wickedness why would he not bring about the end of the world before it gets too wicked? You have gay people, you have abortion (funnily enough no real textual support against abortion though one could make a convincing argument that the father not the woman is the one who gets to decide given the patriarchal nature of the religion), you have drugs and crime panic, you have satanic panic, you have porn and sex toys legalized, you have evolution being taught in schools, you have decreasing amounts of Christians, you have "Christian persecution" in the form of Christians not getting their way and not being able to live in a fully Christian society.
There is a deep anxiety in the US in particular as it was not established as a thoroughly religious state so there is this struggle going back to the foundations to seize control of the country and its soul and make it explicitly Christian as many European countries are (who have mellowed out funnily enough). And if you believe morality derives from belief in the bible and god and that people burn and suffer in hell if they are not Christians then to be a moral person you MUST support theocracy, you must support Christian indoctrination, you must support banning talk of evolution or anything else that could lead people astray.
Do they do things not textually supported? Yes but so do the progressive Christians. All Christians pick and choose things to emphasize and things to wave or apologize away to various degrees of success.
Now yes it's largely been a vehicle for white supremacy and white supremacist anxiety but there is a real textual justification for this behavior in their holy book.
Thank you for the detailed answer