This week's summary of the situation is in spoiler tags below:
preamble
Diplomacy between Iran and the US has begun in... perhaps not earnest, but it's certainly started. Iran's very reasonable requirement that the Zionist occupation stop ethnically cleansing Lebanon and withdraw has caused a great deal of consternation throughout their population, and several analysts have suggested that Netanyahu being forced to accept Trump's (and therefore Iran's) demands spells the end of his leadership in the coming elections; then, the occupation is expected to "mellow out" and the conflicts and genocides slow and stop. This view is only really impactful if you believe that, rather than the US and Zionists being in a strongly mutually beneficial relationship based on geopolitical, financial, and clandestine goals, that instead Netanyahu is a devious mastermind bending any and all in the US to his whims. I don't believe this; and, if anything, the events of at least the last three years prove that he's really quite stupid, with "Israel" being in its worst position in decades under his rule.
Nonetheless, Iran has made the issue of Lebanon a not-quite-red-line (an orange line?). It hasn't stopped them from going to Switzerland and beginning negotiations, but they still want to strongly express their discontent by harnessing the newfound superweapon that is Hormuz. Similarly, threats by Trump and others to restart the war if Iran doesn't bend to their whims have been met with formal stoppages of negotiations, but it appears technical teams are still talking to each other and working things out. Trump's threats are fairly idle at this point because most in the US military must know that there's essentially zero effective military actions left to them with their current munition stockpiles.
Trump let slip that the US has about 3-4 weeks of oil reserves left, which aligns moderately well with the projections of analysts like Yves at Naked Capitalism (it's now expected in late July rather than early July as was originally forecasted months ago). This means that even if the negotiation process goes off without a hitch, that there's going to be a period of at least a few weeks where the US is out of reserves but is waiting for new shipments of oil to physically traverse the distance between Hormuz and the US continent. And many analysts have pointed out that it's going to be a long time - at least a few months, and perhaps more like 9 to 12 - before Hormuz flows pick up to pre-war levels, due to logistics companies and insurance companies wanting to be sure that their property isn't going to be blown up mid-transit. Regardless, the fact that the timetable is now so tight could indicate that the Trump admin has finally realized that it cannot outbluff and outwait Iran, and will give them a good deal out of necessity, even if this means forcing their unsinkable aircraft carrier to stop bombing children for five consecutive minutes.
However, there is a palpable anxiety throughout Iran right now, especially due to controversy over the degree to which Khamenei actually agreed with the current course of events. This does seem to be confirmed by his wording (to paraphrase): "In principle, I took a different view, but allowed the President to proceed." Many inside Iran now have more fear that their politicians will not push hard enough for a good deal than that they'll return to war, with all that may imply. This isn't an unfounded fear, especially given how suddenly the 12 Day War ended despite Iran's strengths being medium-and-long-term attrition (now confirmed by this latest war). This is one of those events that reveals how the Supreme Leader in fact doesn't have complete dictatorial power unlike how he's conceived of in much of the West, and that even during existential wars, major concessions have to be made to democratically elected leaders. Though, this could also be a clever move to shift blame explicitly onto the Reformist elements if the deal collapses.
Last week's thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
China says don't be racist, and obviously australia and europe took issue with that. but at what cost, etc.
reminds me if reading about the founding of the league of nations, when the Jaoanese delegation said treat us as equals, be less racist, and the australian, british, and usa delegates said uhh, that would upset out voter base, or similar anyway
Meanwhile Australia’s leading political opposition is directly calling for the re-establishment of the “White Australia” policy.
The so called working class in settler colonies really feel like a lost cause, but then again, the white australia policy was originally championed by the australian labor party, so very much always has been
Labor Union consciousness vs class consciousness.
I'm starting to think proles in Western nations cannot fully embrace class consciousness until the entire reason for their worldview existing, which is tied to imperialism, collapses utterly and completely. This collapse should happen in a way that it damages the psyches of all Westerners at a fundamental level. I think only then can it actually pierce the nazism inherent in their minds.
You can wriggle your way out of a bad position, i used to have dog shit politcs, until i actually did some reading in my 20s
On an individual level, sure. But on a society-wide level? I think that's a tougher sell until material conditions force the issue.
Yeah, changing the minds of people takes time. And with now socially fascist the west is, when you try to do it, a lot of people think you're being "morally superior" or trying to sell them something. The thinking is "oh, those socialist nations all don't exist anymore, therefore it doesn't work ever no matter what". It's simplistic, but that's the lies we've been fed 24/7, and the continuation of American imperialism is proof that those lies are "true".
The conditions have to change, and unfortunately it doesn't look like they will any time soon. I'm really not sure what to except keep agitating and be ready (mind and body) for when the time comes.
funnily enough though, that process i think can happen because of social imperialists like bernie. their proposals push domestic class relations to a point of instability because of how capitalism has been shifting (lower profit margins, absence of room for further expansion, rise of multipolarity), making social democracy increasingly unsustainable
thiiiiiiis exactly!
At that point it is up to a party further to the left to then pick up the slack and bring that resulting political discontent in the direction of socialism.
I am excited for the growth of DSA because I think that movement fits in with the larger strategy just fine. I expect my local PSL to be friendly and well exposed to their DSA counterparts, so those folks know exactly where to go when the electoralism inevitably falls short of what's needed. I encourage USian Hexbears to organize on both sides of this. PSL (or whichever preferred party) is cool, but I don't see an issue with joining DSA either and helping anchor its big tent to the left (right next to PSL/whichever party).
agreed, i see the job of any leftist from the core as being to heighten those internal contradictions so much that the empire gets too busy dealing with domestic shit, which should weaken its grip on the periphery. that's why despite being from the global south i still get excited seeing social imperialists winning in america lol regardless of what they'd do to my country if they could. they're sitting at this funny position that is definitely anachronistic but also extremely fitting with the current conditions
I usually give global south comrades a pass on dunking on lib shit that happens, but I think it's sort of cringe that us in the core can't take a W (even if it's bundled with reservations or criticisms). Interesting to hear that you see it similarly comrade.
I'll add that furthermore those of us who live on settled/stolen land must work toward decolonization of that land as it is a necessary part of building a socialist future. Otherwise, social democratic capitalist exploitation of the land will be the ceiling.
Peaceful coexistence of difference ethnic groups is anathema to the bellicose tribal occidental.
Tagline material, no notes
Reminds me of the quote where Communists are accused of scheming for power by standing up for the powerless or oppressed - but the method by which one gains power by fighting for the powerless is never explained.
Merely insinuated as some evil plot even though it’s active effort spent to defend someone who can offer very little in return.