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this post was submitted on 29 Sep 2023
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I don't know why you think that's going to happen. Supply is down and demand is as strong as ever. Policy to make housing more plentiful is woefully lacking.
What's the mechanism for a housing crash?
Just the fact that no one can afford housing any more, and lots of folks bought property to rent out at this super high rate, so to not lose money they have to rent out homes for like 2k+ for small rentals.
So the most likely way, if it all, is all the rental properties are forced to go on market at the same time, and then they don't get sold so get foreclosed on.
It's $3k+ for small rentals here.
And if you look at buying, pretty much the entire inventory is full of homes that were sold in the last year or two, relisted at 20-100% mark ups.
Fuck these dickheads.
Legislation could also force a lot of homes on the market.
Houses and condos should only be available to be owned by individuals. Ban corporate / hedge fund ownership of everything except high density apartments (that aren't individually owned).
Ban / cap short term rentals.
Add a tax penalty for individuals after X properties. Ex: if you own more than 3 residential properties, you pay extra taxes.
All of these encourage houses to be occupant owned, while still enabling small scale landlords, because we need both.
I personally would love a crash. I sold my small condo last year in an attempt to upgrade to a house due to getting married and needing more room. I was hoping to time the market, but houses are still out of reach for two middle aged professionals with strong careers, if we ever want to retire.
Edit - to illustrate the problem. In San Diego, where I live, depending on the source, the median home is about $1m.
If you take the estimated monthly cost of leading real estate cites, that's around $7200/mo.
The median household income in San Diego is $83500.
Do the math.
Gonna stop you right there because the rest of your response is fantasy, if legislation can't be passed.
Whose gonna propose those bills? Who is going to vote on them? Where are they going to pass? Give me reasonable answers to those questions and we can proceed.
I bought in Honolulu in 2020 after owning in Oregon for 6 years. The average sale price is 1.5 million, median is 1.1 million, and the houses are straight up rotten garbage (I grew up in North County San Diego in a construction family, SD has much higher build quality).
There are basically no homes for sale in Honolulu county right now. Just scanned the numbers this AM. Tear downs are going for 600-800k.
A crash wouldnt bother me, but its basically unbelievable to me. Ultimately all that money printed is going to find its way into inflated durable goods, and (ding ding ding) residential property.
Sorry to let you know this brother (or sister or non-gender conforming individual), but selling that condo might have been a fatal mistake. Its not clear to me based on macro economic and ongoing political conditions that housing prices will ever materially go down. Honolulu has a ban and cap on short term rentals. Didn't do shit. We've got more homeless than ever and rents have gone up 30% since. Add onto that losses of structures due to climate related disasters. California had the Tubbs fire (1k homes?) and then the Paradise fire (11k homes). We just had the Lahaina fire. Those homes aren't getting rebuilt into affordable housing, I promise.
I've done the math. There is no reasonable scenario I can see where housing prices go down substantially over the next 20 years. We're going to be supply side constrained with ever increasing demand. This is a hold/ buy and hold time.
The math shows that a median income cannot even pay a median mortgage, at 100% of income going to mortgage. Mortgage prices translate to rent prices. Not 1:1, but are directly correlated.
Anyone locked into the before times intetest rates is going to sit pretty if at all possible, because they can't afford to sell and buy elsewhere without a major downgrade.
And returning to the low interest rates will just kick the can down the road, because it was a large cause of the runaway borrowing that led to real estate inflation.
The only way to really fix this is to force the properties out of the greedy corporate / hedge fund hands that are hoarding property that should be in occupier hands. That's how a healthy society and economy works.
The pain of this crisis is being felt by many. The more discontent there is, the more pressure there is on politicians to pass legislature to address the problem.
I don't have an A --> B plan on how to push the legislation through, but social unrest generates pressure to do so.