Mere hours before Trump's 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan's government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran's 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I've heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran's demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it's been proposed that the US didn't even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran's electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran's 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week's thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Pentagon preparing to invade Cuba
My guess is somewhere between Gaza and Venezuela in terms of military engagement. Boots on the ground are many dead troops no matter what. They'll go for a limp-dick "decapitation strike" that won't actually change the government or they'll attempt to bomb the country into submission. I would be very surprised if there's a genuine invasion.
The power system is already ailing so strikes on it seem probable. The US would likely target their health care system as well given capitalist hatred of it. Declare the hospitals had Hamas in them as is usual.
Yup, I think that's very likely
That's my feeling as well. I doubt they'd risk a full on invasion without an extensive air campaign first. In which case it's be pretty grim for Cuba as they have no modern anti-air systems as far a I know.
It'll be Gaza 2.0 where you just bomb the country to rubble, say you are killing communists, but you are just dumping bombs in every population center, until the island is flat.
Maybe the draft plans aren't for a ground invasion in Iran but Cuba instead. How many troops will an invasion of Cuba even need? Has anyone done estimates?
as a resident doomer, round 20-50k, 200k with supporting staff all told, they might take ports so havana santiago matanzas, and just control imports at points of entry, let the rest of country figure it out, overtake big airports as well, it's not like they have explosives or drone manufacturing to meaningfully challenge it.
It's naive to dismiss Cuba's chances in a war they've been preparing for since their independence. Their defensive doctrine is actually remarkably similar to Iran's dispersed command strategy that is working quite well right now, and the US has never been very good at fighting against guerilla warfare.
Of course, something like that would be extremely costly, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some Cuban economic or political concessions to avoid a war, but outright US conquest essentially requires the Cuban resistance to give up, which doesn't seem particularly likely to me.
with no rockets or anti-ship missiles or long range drones.
if they've had some extensive fleet of marine drones to sink container ships in gulf of mexico, than that would make some sense.
I know that dooming is your thing, but having read extensively about the Cuban counter-espionage efforts in the 70's-90's, it wouldn't surprise me if the Cubans have more than one surprise up their sleeve for the U.S. in the event that they are invaded.
They appear to keep an extremely tight lid on their military capabilities. Cuba isn't like Iran, where they had to do a couple of rounds of rooting out Mossad agents to finally have a tight ship (besides the fact that even for all the penetration Mossad was able to achieve, they clearly underestimated Iran's capabilities). We are talking about a government that was able to successfully run at least three different known counter-informant rings in the U.S. where the true nature and identity of the informants were only made known, even to their immediate families, years after their deaths. And this is only what is known.
We have seen, repeatedly, the Cuban's ability to stave off direct military conflict with the U.S. They are clearly fully embedded within the expat community. If history is any indicator, they may even be advising the U.S. on how to invade (as they were fully embedded in the Bay of Pigs, it wasn't just a coincidence that it failed).
The entire core of Maduro's bodyguards were all Cubans, all of whom died to a man fighting for someone who isn't even their president, an inch away from killing the pilot and bringing an end to the whole operation. The idea that the entire Cuban military will just stand-by and watch their country get hit, or haven't been preparing for exactly this scenario feels extremely ahistorical to me.
I could be wrong though, forty years is a long time, and maybe the revolutionary fervor is all gone and only the bitter remnants of a once hopeful revolution are what remain. Maybe it is all just nepotistic fail-sons now. Or maybe all that is left are the idealist revolutionaries, with nary a materialist in the ranks. Idk really.
But I generally try to base my analysis of these things in historical materialism, whereas you seem to just lean into materialism. I think it adversely affects your analysis.
Castro just survived hundreds of assassination attempts because he just got lucky every single time
There is a great book on the Wasp Network called "The Last Soldiers of the Cold War", which yeah, they got caught, but they were pulling some absolutely wild shenanigans for years without anyone getting suspicious. And they were clearly part of a long line of counter-espionage, as they were extremely sophisticated, if reckless.
Also, of course they would be called that. Why would you think there are any soldiers left?
They don't need to defeat the US economically, though. The US can't just force Cuban citizens to give up any more than Israel can just end Hamas. Keep dooming, though.
yeah they would need to mimic Iran's strategy. Have proxies in somewhere within range of Panama that can close the canal. Invest extensively into small fast boats and UAVs and massive amounts of shahed-like cheap drones to hit Miami and oil infrastructure in the gulf. I am not inside the Cuban military so I don't know what they've been cooking up, but hopefully it's something along these lines seeing the power that Iran can project regionally with drones and missiles.
The problem is that Cuba doesn't have any oil or energy production domestically, they have to import it. So unlike Iran they cannot afford to just turtle up and withstand siege while dealing counter-damage. Problem is, Cuba is already under total blockade and siege so they are already under a state of war. They just aren't allowed to fire back.
Cuba produces about 40% of its own oil
Thank you for the correction. They do have some production. Not enough though it seems as they have energy blackouts under total blockade and rely on imports. Iran's reserves are vastly larger is all I'm saying.
40% of their own oil is still short 60% -which is quite significant … also, just because they are extracting crude doesn’t mean that they have enough of the right kind of petroleum byproducts they need
Houston isn't even 1400kms from Cuba, so easily could be in range of drones and missiles.
The US can try an invasion of the island, and might even hold some spaces, but Cuba would be their caribbean Vietnam, and make it untenable.
Not even close unfortunately. Vietnam had an airforce that was shooting down US planes. Vietnam had a huge an active military that was experienced and filled with veterans. They had contemporary and modern soviet artillery, anti-air, anti-tank systems. They had Chinese volunteers that could spill over the border. Cuba is also right next to the US, which makes the logistics a lot easier.
vietnam had soviet and china backing and the dream that better world is possible. cuba has betrayal by most latin american countries, south africa, europe and "commie" asia and no viable military partner (and only possible partnerships must be full nuclear umbrella, no one will stick their neck out so far for an island of the coast of usa)
venezuela had much better prospects in that regard
not to mention that left sabotage inside usa is dead, this is obamdani foreign policy after all
If Hamas can defend Gaza as an isolated besieged enclave, you can bet your ass the Cubans can do the same. This defeatism is unacceptable and reactionary.
I was gonna say, like has anyone here ever been to Cuba? The countryside is nothing but hills, mountains, brush, and swamps. It's where Fidel and his remaining comrades hid after the barracks ambush. It took me hours to just get to some streams with my friend, an environmental officer.
What a thing to contrast existing then vs now...
Really shows my point about how doomerism impairs judgement and just leads to learned helplessness and nihilism.
Simply put, if you do not believe a better world is possible, you are not a communist. That is incompatible.
After the hormuz blockade + conflict, its possible the US has no carriers that aren't either extremely fatigued or in need major of maintenance/repairs. Unfortunately, stand-in munitions are still in large supply, so as long as the US can use those, they'll still be able to use those without concern of running out and I'm not sure bombers would even need refueling with how close they can launch from, so losses of support fleet in Iran probably wouldn't matter much?
The exhausted Navy just doesn't matter at all with Cuba, unfortunately.
i honestly don't know about small arms and willingness of physically fit cubans to engage in hit an run tactics from patriotism alone, that would balloon the invasion needs to 500k, 100k active. the attitude i encountered was roughly ambivalent on the question, but if push comes to shove some countries surprise some don't. but industrially and internationally it looks kinda bad
You can't have any Cuba until you've finished your Iran
Rubio pouting in the corner while Hegseth gets drunk and rants about blowing Iranian schools up
Bay of pigs 2.0? Either way, death to the US and may Cuba surpass this period.
This is a problem
will never have
The DPRK correctly disregarded all the "authoritarianism" critimisms and got stacked with nukes that could turn Amerikkka into ash, this is what Cuba needs before they get carpet bombed by the Burger Reich
Cuba had no ability to do that unfortunately. They got embargoed and literally blockaded not long after the revolution and have been under embargo ever since. The US was never going to allow them to buy and import mass quantities of uranium, build centrifuges, over years, a decade of time refine it and develop a bomb. It just wasn't in the cards for their position. Their only option was being given ones and when the USSR backed down to the mad dog US and pulled out their nukes they found themselves in this situation.
To be honest given Cuba's size and proximity I'm not sure the US wouldn't have blanketed them in nukes in a sneak attack rather than allowed them to exist as a nuclear communist power nearby.
So yes the DPRK was smart in doing that. Iran was foolish in not doing that but both of them had vastly different situations to Cuba which just didn't have the ability for a variety of reasons.
one thing that concerns me is that the US already has a base of operations at guantanamo
I don't think it is set up to funnel huge amounts of troops into the country, and would very quickly become a target for Cuban weapons if the US attacks, so it is better for them than no beachhead, but most likely their war will just be their usual decapitation strikes and terror bombing. Detached brutality of a kind that doesn't lead to officers getting fragged.
Just out of curiosity in Minecraft, how deep into Florida does Cuban weapons reach? Just curious in Minecraft.