this post was submitted on 09 Apr 2026
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Mere hours before Trump's 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan's government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran's 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I've heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran's demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it's been proposed that the US didn't even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran's electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran's 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nt1CgQsgpI
Richard Medhurst succinctly putting the last 5 years into perspective.
I disagree with a lot of this. My main criticism is that I think we're in the middle of a complex and evolving situation and a lot of this is opportunism for the benefit of long term imperial projects as opposed to the plan for those projects. There are also many factions, goals, and unspoken impulses of empire to say that this is the one plan that they have.
Controlling commodity flows and especially fossil fuels is core to dollar hegemony. Taking back control of Iran and their oil has been a core goal for decades. It's much easier for me to believe that a lot of imperial planners wanted Iran to be subjugated, but when it wasn't quickly brought to heel they moved to take advantage of the oil shock.
Also, I doubt anyone in the deep state thinks that this is a serious and permanent plan. Within a decade most of the oil and gas that was destroyed will be rebuilt and renewable energy sources will have expanded significantly. This can only be temporary as the world moves away from fossil fuels and the systems of international control that the US has built and maintained.
This is the strongest and most holistic analysis I've seen. I like it a lot, I like how much it's trying to zoom out and see the whole picture as one larger thing.
His point on moving the planet's energy source away from the middle east and to the gulf of mexico makes the reason they want to eliminate Cuba so much clearer as well. Cuba would be able to do what Iran are doing otherwise.
I just watched this again it's so information dense. It's so fucking good. I highly recommend this to everyone, it's very convincing and very materialist.
Well if this is true then nothing on earth can get the US to abandon the zionist entity and all talk of that is as usual just copium/hopium. Not that I seriously thought they would but it would seem their energy dominance re:LNG relies explicitly on the zionist entity continuing to exist, continuing to be part of the rest of the world including open trade with it in order to export gas, remaining stable, and remaining close to the US and coordinating with them in regards to their grander geopolitical strategies with energy which means not turning the US back on them.
One interesting thing I'll notice is Ukraine is ramping up their drone war, they're now one of the most skilled operators in the world with very skilled people and a great knowledge set. They have unlimited access to western precursor components to build their drones and if the US says so they'll coordinate with them for deep strikes into central Russia to destroy gas infrastructure and strangle China. Frankly short of decisively defeating Ukraine and forcing them to the negotiating table by making their position untenable I don't think this whole Russian plan of bleeding them is working out after all. They only get better at drone terrorism and warfare, they only contribute more skills to the west, they only create better designs, strike deeper, radicalize more of their population with Nazi propaganda.
But I do find it interesting the video brings up Diego Garcia and the US naval advantage and ring around China in as far as they believe it will be part of maintaining the petro-dollar and controlling China. I've often noted the same thing, that this, Greenland, Panama Canal, etc is all part of a way to control global trade to control China. He's come to basically the same conclusion I have but I didn't notice the gas moves specifically and some of the elegant details of this plan, he really lays it out in a way I never could. Very impressive.
Frankly I increasingly wonder if Ukraine isn't intended to be kept burning through when the US makes their moves on China so that they can just use Ukrainians to blow up Russian supplies to China and squeeze them using an existing conflict so it isn't even that obvious. China is averse to alliances, averse to getting involved militarily so their only moves are economic in nature which limits them compared to the US in what they can do especially given the extensive alliances, vassals, etc the US has. The US can have their Ukrainian proxies launch massive attacks and completely devastate Russian abilities to supply China and hurt their economy, force them into submission to the west for vital LNG and other supplies and flip the script on China's current rare earth monopoly.
And once again I think things like this are valuable because too many people here assume the US is run by incompetent failsons, that it's floundering around just doing things randomly when in fact there is a grander strategy. Yes some pieces of that come into place in a rather inelegant and floundering fashion due to failings of individual politicians and their moves but the grander plan continues to move forward across administrations.
Does Ukraine have the manpower to last that long?
No
If you remember, the US pushed really hard to become the primary supplier of LNG to the EU following the Russian SMO, sanctioning and cutting off of Russian energy imports and the destruction of Nordstream. There was even a brief row where Canada was exploring increased exports to the EU but the US squashed it almost instantly. The subsequent explosion in energy costs for both American and EU consumers is obvious. Here is an article talking about the results. There was a business insider article from the time detailing it a little better but im too lazy to find it right now. The EU, obviously, has a far larger consumer base than the entity.
But your analysis is mostly on point, just a little skewed. The focus in American foreign policy shifted hard towards China under Obama in the early-mid 2010's.
The initial plan for Ukraine was to draw Russia into a war to bleed out its military, coupled with supposed crippling economic sanctions the aim was to reduce Putins hold on power within Russia, encouraging regime change. Hence the rise to prominence of Navalny. Who had extensive ties to western institutions including the NED funded and run by the Clinton's.
Thus Regime change in Russia was in turn intended to isolate China. Since Russia is an enormous source of raw materials such a change would have immediately compromised China's very existence while putting western capital into a similarly dominant position. All roads lead to China in terms of current American foreign policy.
Edited spelling and grammar
Off topic but love the 00's nu metal look from Richard
Punished Medhurst: It's just one of those days
This is great, thank you! Although disillusioning, it is important to face the reality that the US empire is flexible enough to still be in a very strong position and moving in a smart way to strengthen it further.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: