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I think were pretty screwed either way. If they ramp down, Iran sees them as an existential threat and ramps up nuke capability, but now with less sanctions and more money. Iran with nukes makes Israel more twitchy as they see it as an existential threat.
If USA ramps up, we're in for a long protracted war and instability.
So we're screwed either way.
if only the orange child rapist had done that very simple math before thinking it was a good idea to attack Iran to hide his kiddy diddling crimes
I think Israel, without unlimited weapons backing of the US (a condition I think would occur if the US loses badly) would stop casual strikes against Iran. They would know they risk a barrage of missiles that they don't have the interceptors for. And if Iran gets the nuke, then MAD would be in effect. Israel seeing Iran as an existential threat now, not in the future would sit tight and perhaps even open a dialogue. The problem today is they consider Iran a threat in the future. And mind you they don't consider them a threat so much to Israel today than to their plans for expansion in Lebanon, West Bank, Syria and so on.
I think it's that they realize peak oil is over. The middle east is a geopolitical strategic position for energy, as the world is now finding out via Iran closing the SoH.
Israel realised that that is on the wane. Along with the next generations attitude towards their relationshipnwith Israel. Israel is going hard in now as they have a larger support from the USA. I fully expect that to naturally wind down due to internal US political change and global moves away from carbon fuel.
Sure, oil shocks would still bite, but nowhere near to the same level. It's why the other oil production states are desperately trying to pivot to other industries. Iran has screwed that by making them unsafe. America doesn't realize that by not protecting their allies there, in the same way they protect Israel, that they will lose them. Edit:typos
I think middle east would be much much safer with iran having nukes
Lol, no. The world is safer with less nukes. Allowing Israel to get nukes was a failure of the international community.
Allowing Ukraine to face repurcussions for giving up their nukes was another failure.
The world is safer with no nukes and infinitely unsafe with infinite nukes. It's appealing to extrapolate from this that less nukes -> more safety, but that's an unjustified leap of logic. For example take the case of one nuclear state vs two nuclear states. If there's only one it can force its will on other states, but if there are two they can keep each other in check and drastically reduce the possibility of nukes actually flying.
Yes, I agree with your logic. However, Iran is a fundamentalist regime. They appear rational next to trump. That doesn’t make them rational. Otherwise there would have been an end to sanctions years ago. And an end to murdering dissidents and protestors.
I hate to defend Iran, but the Iranian regime is in fact very rational. This is easily apparent when you strip away the religious aspect and look at what they actually do. In all direct confrontations with Israel or the US (at least during Khamenei's rule, I'm not so sure about Khomeini), Iran has responded with measured actions aimed at de-escalation while saving face domestically and internationally and discouraging further aggression.
Uh... the sanctions are for daring to control their resources contrary to Western capitalist interests. Iran could be the most secular, most democratic country in the world and Western countries would still find a reason to sanction it. Besides, remember JCPOA? It was the US (and by extension the West) that reneged on that deal. Hell, remember the reason the Islamic Republic exists in the first place? Iran, quite rationally, wants to be an independent regional power not subordinate to anybody's interests (and, again quite rationally, especially not Western interests). This directly contradicts the Western (especially US) demand that all Middle Eastern states be weak, subordinate to their interests and pro-Israel. There can be reconciliation between these positions (yet Iran tried anyway, see: JCPOA), so securing its position by force is the only realistic prospect.
Here you seem to be conflating rationality with morality. The Iranian regime is evil as fuck, but it's rationally evil. Murdering challengers to one's power is very rational from the perspective of a regime primarily concerned with its own survival. See also: the CCP.
You're looking at only the last few weeks. Historicallu, not so much. They have rejected monitoring. Rejected negotiating. Rejected reasonable terms that led to sanctions at multiple points.
Silencing dissent is logical but not creating martyrs in a culture that idolises them.
Clamping down on women for wearing what they choose with violence is not logical. It's consistent with their ideology, which is my point. The ideology supersedes logic.
In the case of ideology overriding logic, that could lead to use against Israel. Or even the suggestion could cause Israel to strike first as happened this time.
Their support of multiple factions in multiple neighbouring countries targeting than working constructively is also illogical and inflammatory
What? Have you never heard of JCPOA?
Authoritarianism is a balancing act between not creating martyrs and making dissent dangerous. You can't do one without the other, so while the Iranian regime might (or might not) be acting suboptimally the concern is still its own survival.
It gets points with their base of support, but also every regime anywhere does irrational things. The question is how much, so even if this was irrational (which again isn't guaranteed) it doesn't contradict with the wider point.
[Citation needed]. Everything we have from the regime, both statements and actions, states otherwise. Iran can clearly deal significant damage to Israel using its missiles and drones, yet it only does so when threatened. Why would nukes be any different?
Iran is in direct competition with its Arab neighbors and Israel for regional supremacy; conflict between these camps is basically inevitable, especially with the Arab side being pro-America and Israel. Besides, their neighbors won't trade with them with Western sanctions in place, making this a moot point. Their support for these militias improves their image domestically and regionally (factions like Hamas and the Houthis are very popular in the Middle East), gives them regional power (Iraq and Lebanon being obvious examples, but also Syria when Assad was around), makes local US presence costly and allows them to open up new fronts against Israel basically on demand. Tf you mean illogical, it's downright genius (and very often evil, but that's not what we're talking about). Your position seems to hinge on the assumption that conflict is illogical, but there is such a thing as rational conflict. It's not like Iran hasn't tried to improve relations with its neighbors; it just does so on its own terms rather than America. Your point is analogous to asking why Ukraine doesn't pursue better relations with Belarus.
no one is more fundamentalist than western regimes, they all will burn in hell for their crimes
No. Look at DPRK
Iran must have nukes for stability and safety of the region