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What's your choice in Newcomb's problem? (lemmy.ml)

submitted 21 hours ago by Objection@lemmy.ml to c/asklemmy@lemmy.ml

33 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Newcomb's problem is a thought experiment where you're presented with two boxes, and the option to take one or both. One box is transparent and always contains $1000. The second is a mystery box.

Before making the choice, a supercomputer (or team of psychologists, etc) predicted whether you would take one box or both. If it predicted you would take both, the mystery box is empty. If it predicted you'd take just the mystery box, then it contains $1,000,000. The predictor rarely makes mistakes.

This problem tends to split people 50-50 with each side thinking the answer is obvious.

An argument for two-boxing is that, once the prediction has been made, your choice no longer influences the outcome. The mystery box already has whatever it has, so there's no reason to leave the $1000 sitting there.

An argument for one-boxing is that, statistically, one-boxers tend to walk away with more money than two-boxers. It's unlikely that the computer guessed wrong, so rather than hoping that you can be the rare case where it did, you should assume that whatever you choose is what it predicted.

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[–] Sickos@hexbear.net 2 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

I am, admittedly {confused by the premise|too hypothetical to warrant reasoning about}, but, I am interested in how there is ever a possible downside to taking both?

It's {$1000|one box}, {$x|one box}, {$1000+$x|two boxen}. $1000+$x > $1000 because the hungry alligator eats the bigger number

[–] Ryanmiller70@lemmy.zip 2 points 13 hours ago

That's what has me confused. I thought I was misreading something cause I couldn't see a downside to not taking both boxes. If the box is empty, you still have the $1000 and if it's not then you get even more money.