this post was submitted on 07 Mar 2026
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There is immense hope - in less than two years, living in one of the most oppressive & anti-trans states in the US, I managed to fully transition, I had reasonable access to care including surgeries, I updated most of my documents, and then I fled to a safer state where I managed to update even more of my documents, and I now live life as my gender full-time without issue.
Day-to-day, there is no real immediate threat to my life or safety (any more than a cis woman would experience), and even though the news can be overwhelming at times, I am mostly focused on living my life and improving what I can within my life.
Even in the worst moments, the struggles of being a visibly trans person in a hostile state were still preferable to life pre-transition (not that I could have known this before).
Every day I feel more or less happy and excited to be alive, and I can thank transitioning for that. I feel mostly hopeful about the future, even with the uncertainty. So far, things are far better than I thought they would be by this point. Some things (like hospital closures) have happened as I expected, but other things (like full criminalization of trans adults in the most anti-trans states) have not happened.
some advice (feel free to ignore if that's not what you're here for)
My suggestion is to care more about your mental health and be more practical with how you relate to the news. Even though it's probably not safe or responsible to completely check out, I've had to find ways to contextualize the news and not let the drama of this administration ruin your life with run-away fears and anticipation of a future that may never come. Learn to differentiate the political theater from the material situation.There is a middle ground where you can take a practical approach to the news as a means of informing how to prepare for and make the changes you need to make to keep yourself safe, without letting it run your life.
Regarding context: if your mental health can handle it, go read about what it was like for trans folks in the 1970s and appreciate the fact that trans people enjoy much greater care and rights now than ever before.
Guard your experiences - be picky about what doctors & other providers you go to. Get connected within your local community and figure out who is safe through the community. Cultivate safety through who you choose to be around and what spaces you are or aren't willing to be in.
And in the worst case, when the fear has gripped me, I find it is helpful to take agency - taking steps to leave an anti-trans state and seek refuge in a state with strong trans rights was a way to feel hopeful and to undermine that sense of complete victimization. Do what you can, each day, to create that sense of autonomy and choice, even if that day it's as simple as making sure you are eating healthy, hydrating, exercising, and getting enough sleep.
Sadly I think criminalization of trans adults is a when not if. In New York they tried to pass a "Walking While Trans" bill. Didn't work thankfully.
And there are states wih bans on drag in public that are worded so vaguely that a AMAB person wearing a skirt counts as an "Overtly Sexual Display", especially if a kid sees that...
Edit: Not even a day later and West Virginia banned Gender Affirming Care for adults with the permission of the 4th Circuit.
I lived in one of those states, and that interpretation of the law is incorrect, the courts have a rather high standard and narrow interpretation of what is considered "harm to children"
as the ACLU clarifies:
These drag bans absolutely do not apply to trans people walking down the street, and these laws have been in place for years without any enforcement like you are describing. So far they mostly use the law's ambiguity to threaten legal action to shut down drag performances at pride parades, etc.
One of the fears I had as a trans person living in those states is that overnight I would wake up and the police could just try to the law as an excuse to go ahead and arrest trans people anyway, and then let the mess play out in the courts where conservative judges could find creative ways to ignore or work around the restraints on the law, but this is very unlikely and more just my fear talking than anything like an actual path forward for successful criminalization.
That said, I do think the most extreme anti-trans elements of the GOP are trying to push full criminalization as they can, but have mostly failed to get support even from their own party in the most anti-trans states. In 2025 Texas had a state bill proposed that would criminalize all trans people for "gender identity fraud" and they weren't even able to get it to a vote.
So, I'm not as confident as you that it's as certain as "when, not if", even if I do agree that we might see full criminalization happen in some states. (That's actually why I left my home and moved to a blue state, I anticipated under the Trump administration that the most anti-trans states will be more motivated to push for full criminalization.)
That said, my anticipation of quick criminalization has not yet come to fruition, and now I wonder why some of those states like Florida haven't even attempted it.
Florida makes it so that if you're trans and in jail, they forcibly try to detransition you.
That was adopted by the Federal Prison System and made stricter. Trump also signed an order to bring back mental asylums.
I would be really surprised to learn that the plan WASN'T to have RFK Jr. announce a "pandemic of transness" to have anyone gender queer sent to these asylums.
I am in NC. I wanna try to move to Virginia if the chance presents itself.
While I don't think Gender Identity Fraud will become a crime in itself (Even Trump's supreme court would declare it a violation of the First Amendment). I know they're gonna try to make transition all but impossible.
I think they'll either claim its "Too sexual for the public" (Kinda like how they made being gay in public a crime by labeling public displays of affection a crime and selectively enforcing it) or have it declared a mental health epidemic.
I am amazed every Purple Or Red state hasn't jumped to copy Kansas. (Though many have stopped allowing people to update their IDs. And Indiana seems to be trying to revert them back to birth sex)
I really hope Gavin Newsom isn't the Democratic Nominee. While I think he can beat Vance, I can see him being to the right of Trump on trans issues.