this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2026
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10% market share is when I expect it to be impossible to ignore and I think we're gonna get there fast like you alluded to.
But...mainly for games. The corporate crowd will stay on Windows because they benefit from propping up other corporations. PC/laptop manufacturers will still push Windows for the same reason
I don't understand how my coworkers are using windows. Like, they routinely have issues where it randomly reboots or gets sluggish. And it's just flat out unfit for software development, unless you're targeting windows specific stuff. They can't even run our code locally.
Maybe some of the problems are janky security stuff to try to lock it down
I wouldn't be so sure. An interesting indicator of the shift that many of you wouldn't see is how many vendors of management and security software have put out Linux versions in the past 12 months. I'm talking about stuff like RMM (Remote Monitoring & Management), EDR / MDR (Endpoint Detection & Response / Managed Detection & Response) client side DNS filtering software, and other things.
This tooling is for managing and securing endpoints used by companies, either by internal IT or by MSPs. These vendors wouldn't be making and releasing these tools unless they were being asked for them AND there was going to be stead long term demand.
Turns out that once a companies stuff is in the cloud its users really don't need MS Windows anymore so as long as you can centrally manage and secure it Linux makes a perfectly fine endpoint OS.
There is one last major bit once you have RMM and EDR in place - centralized identify. Until Okta, Ping, Azure, and Google all have a pam module that allows for remote identity management without depending on LDAP, enterprise endpoints are restricted to desktop/server machines (or orgs where you can get a waiver and only have local login).
Yep but...
Here's Microsoft - https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/entra/identity/devices/sso-linux?tabs=debian-install%2Cdebian-update%2Cdebian-uninstall
Google has a variety of IDM methods including Ubuntu Authd and Secure Cloud LDAP. There's also 3rd party tools like JumpCloud, ScaleOrange, etc.
Okta appears to have ASA and OPA although I'm not familiar with either of them. Ping has PingID and Ping Federate, although again I haven't used either of them.
So depending on your cloud and needs the IdM / IAM is either available NOW or it will be very soon. 😀
Total market share is irrelevant. What matters more is total users.
If you make a product and there's a million people on a platform who could buy it, the costs to port that product (and support it) need to be low for it to be worthwhile.
If the total number of people on that platform increases to 10 million, now the cost to port/support becomes more like a minuscule expense rather than a difficult decision.
When you reach 100 million there's no excuse. There's a lot of money to be made!
For reference, the current estimated amount of desktop Linux users globally is somewhere between 60-80 million. In English-speaking countries, the total is around 19-20 million.
It's actually a lot more complicated than this, but you get the general idea: There's a threshold where any given software company (including games) is throwing money away by not supporting Linux.
Also keep in mind that even if Linux had 50% market share, globally, Tim Sweeney would still not allow Epic to support it. I bet he'd rather start selling their own consoles that run Windows instead!