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I strongly doubt the protests will go very far.
For one, the nature of the protests have been spontaneous and sporadic in nature and did not coalesce into rallying behind a credible leader or movement with explicit demands (the Shah family is simply too out of touch for most Iranians to be considered a legitimate leader). Protests of such nature cannot succeed in toppling the government.
However, this does not change the fact that the economic situation in Iran is extremely dire right now. This is not the slow burn from the sanctions for many years - the Iranian economy has been rapidly deteriorating since the 12-day war last June and is heading towards a falling off the cliff situation. If the ruling government cannot do anything to ease the spiraling inflation and the cost of living, then the domestic dissent can only grow.
Most importantly, the US cannot afford to have Iran collapsing into a situation that spirals beyond its control. It has already achieved its goals of pushing Russia and China out of the region. If you go to the nationalist propaganda channels on Russian telegram and Chinese social media, both are placing much blame on the Iranian government (as well as Venezuela’s) while only voicing the minimum boilerplate support on the grounds of US hypocrisy and imperialism. That’s why we can be fairly confident in saying that both Russia and China will not interfere in the Iranian crisis (and Venezuela) this time.
Recall what happened when the US hastily withdrew from Afghanistan back in 2021. The videos that emerged from it became a “last chopper out of Kabul” joke, happening at a pace so rapid that the US was conveniently throwing away a lot of their equipments behind to be freely looted by the Taliban. Many predicted that the Taliban government would let in Chinese and Russian investments, but that did not materialize at all and the cooperation that transpired has been minimal at best.
It’s been 4.5 years and what we’re seeing is the Taliban government very conveniently staying out of its way from causing trouble to the empire’s actions in the region. This could represent a new form of US exerting its imperial control - instead of explicit regime change, it simply has to drive out economic investments from foreign adversaries and the economic pressure will soon lead those extant regimes to come to a compromise with the US.
We may be seeing the same thing happening in Venezuela and Iran. The US simply has to wait. It’s not as if the liberal Iranian government is not open to a negotiation with the US (the IRGC will not, but the economic sanction is already biting on their ruling legitimacy). Raisi would have been more firm against the US, but Pezeshkian seems quite open to a compromise with the US. And that is likely the final outcome we will see with Iran.
Yes, the protests are irrelevant now. I’m referring the American pressure
Could you show examples of Russia and China blaming Iran.
I don't doubt you. I'm not a Twitter user, and so I haven't been able to find what you are talking about.
I also don’t use Twitter lol, only Russian telegram and various forms of Chinese social media.
Here’s Andrey Medvedev’s telegram post about it (Russia’s premier journalist/propagandist at VGTRK):
spoiler
———
Chinese social media invariably revolves around a few points:
A lot of painting the Iranians as “untrustworthy” partner and will only be a baggage for China down the road. You can verify the incidents above yourself, they are all public news.
Oh sorry I misread telegram as twitter