this post was submitted on 18 Dec 2025
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I'd lose my job if I had a forecasting miss that bad
The white supremacy of the west rarely shines brighter than in prognostications like this. China is a highly industrialized country with something like twice the population of the US and Europe combined. The ONLY WAY you could think they won't triumph in research, production, and cultural output is if you think they are genetically inferior or something. They are GOING to make the chips. It is going to take them LESS TIME to develop the process than it took you, and they are going to be able to make MORE of them.
Everyone dunks on Matt Yglesias for his "one billion Americans" thing, but that impossible fantasy universe conjured in his mind palace is the only place where China is incapable of catching up to the West.