this post was submitted on 10 Dec 2025
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This seems to be part of the marketing campaign for the PLA (Chinese military) to buy the missile. I have significant doubts that the PLA will purchase it. There's a big difference between a glide vehicle or maneuverable re-entry vehicle that can hit hypersonic speeds for a brief moment before significantly slowing down and maneuvering at a big cost to speed and energy, vs sustained hypersonic speeds for the majority of its flight. The PLA (and the US military) are looking for the latter. And they have both demonstrated the latter in testing already, with the DF-ZF glide vehicle for the DF-17, and X-51 Waverider respectively. The X-51 achieved 240 seconds of powered flight, 200+ seconds of that being hypersonic flight utilising a scramjet. Those are the kind of figures that the US and China are interested in. The US is looking to minituarise the X-51 design for a tactical weapon carried by fighter jets.
The more advanced ballistic missiles with maneuverable re-entry vehicles have been doing this for over 40 years. Look at the Hera Moving Target Vehicle, based on the Pershing-II, for example:
So definitely not flying at hypersonic speeds in the terminal phase if a consumer grade camera is able to make out a target. (Plasma sheath, how is the camera seeing through that?). Also consumer grade navigation chips for satellite navigation? Don't see that fairing well with the mess of electronic warfare and jamming that will arise once a shooting war starts. Accuracy is quite important.
Of course it's not true, you aren't putting a payload into orbit at that price. I'm sure that this new missile is significantly cheaper than the DF-17, but the question is if China even wants cheap missiles like this, vs high end hypersonic systems that they already have. That's a question about PLA force structure more than anything. At the moment they don't seem interested.
This hasn't been happening for a while now. There are dedicated short range air defence systems and counter UAS (unmanned aerial systems) systems in place to deal with the UAVs.
Why would Iran or Yemen be interested in this, they already have ballistic missiles with powered maneuverable re-entry vehicles in Fattah-1 and it's derivatives. We already saw how these kinds of weapons stack up vs a US intervention, what their strengths and weaknesses are.
I can see use for both expensive hypersonics and dirt cheap systems like this which will still be expensive to shoot down. I would imagine what's more important than the cost itself is how quickly and easily it can be produced. If you can have dark factories pumping these things out 24/7 then there's no counter that the US or their toadies can have to that. If we learned one thing from Ukraine it's that the US is structurally incapable of ramping up mass industry.
Does China want to fight that kind of war though, a drawn out multi year attritional war where a city with a pre war population of 60 000 takes 15+ months to capture, a war in Ukraine that has gone on for longer than the US campaign against Japan in the Pacific during WW2. I doubt China wants to fight that kind of war over Taiwan for instance. If China wants to seize Taiwan, they would want to be quick and decisive, and to deter any US intervention either out of fear of Chinese capabilities, or by quickly sinking an aircraft carrier or destroying US airbases if the US does intervene, in a forcible display of Chinese military capabilities. That's what my read is right now.
Some sort of Hi-Lo mix could be useful, I can see the value in that. There are always lots of targets to prosecute in war, and not everything needs a high end system to hit it. In that case, it just needs to be more difficult to shoot down than a cruise missile, and probably won't be fired at highly defended targets. In Ukraine, Russia does this a lot, firing ballistic missiles at areas with no or minimal systems to defend against ballistic strikes. Something like this, cheaper than an Iskander-M or Kinzhal, but still very capable, would be very useful for Russia right now. But that brings me back to the first question: is China interested in fighting or preparing to fight that kind of war? Are they going to structure their rocket forces like this? I have doubts.
First, let's remember that Russia tried to do exactly what you're suggesting in the first two weeks. They rolled up to Kiev and gave Ukrainians an ultimatum. This almost worked when the agreements were initialled in Istanbul. Then the west told Ukrainians that they would back them to the end and that they had to fight. That's how the war of attrition started. Did Russia want that kind of war? Clearly not. Did they have a choice in the end, also clearly not.
Similarly, China will likely try doing what you suggest, but then if the US and the vassals decide not to back down they're going to find themselves in a war of attrition as well. However, there's a big difference between South Asia and Ukraine in terms of logistics. While the west was able to funnel weapons into Ukraine easily through Europe, it will be much harder to do with Taiwan given that its an island. I personally can't see how the US could sustain a long term campaign against China, especially given that China controls many critical inputs for weapons production, and existing stocks are now severely depleted in Ukraine.
So, while China would absolutely not want to be dragged into a protracted war, it would be sheer idiocy for them not to plan for one while hoping for a quick decisive win.