this post was submitted on 10 Dec 2025
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Does China want to fight that kind of war though, a drawn out multi year attritional war where a city with a pre war population of 60 000 takes 15+ months to capture, a war in Ukraine that has gone on for longer than the US campaign against Japan in the Pacific during WW2. I doubt China wants to fight that kind of war over Taiwan for instance. If China wants to seize Taiwan, they would want to be quick and decisive, and to deter any US intervention either out of fear of Chinese capabilities, or by quickly sinking an aircraft carrier or destroying US airbases if the US does intervene, in a forcible display of Chinese military capabilities. That's what my read is right now.
Some sort of Hi-Lo mix could be useful, I can see the value in that. There are always lots of targets to prosecute in war, and not everything needs a high end system to hit it. In that case, it just needs to be more difficult to shoot down than a cruise missile, and probably won't be fired at highly defended targets. In Ukraine, Russia does this a lot, firing ballistic missiles at areas with no or minimal systems to defend against ballistic strikes. Something like this, cheaper than an Iskander-M or Kinzhal, but still very capable, would be very useful for Russia right now. But that brings me back to the first question: is China interested in fighting or preparing to fight that kind of war? Are they going to structure their rocket forces like this? I have doubts.
First, let's remember that Russia tried to do exactly what you're suggesting in the first two weeks. They rolled up to Kiev and gave Ukrainians an ultimatum. This almost worked when the agreements were initialled in Istanbul. Then the west told Ukrainians that they would back them to the end and that they had to fight. That's how the war of attrition started. Did Russia want that kind of war? Clearly not. Did they have a choice in the end, also clearly not.
Similarly, China will likely try doing what you suggest, but then if the US and the vassals decide not to back down they're going to find themselves in a war of attrition as well. However, there's a big difference between South Asia and Ukraine in terms of logistics. While the west was able to funnel weapons into Ukraine easily through Europe, it will be much harder to do with Taiwan given that its an island. I personally can't see how the US could sustain a long term campaign against China, especially given that China controls many critical inputs for weapons production, and existing stocks are now severely depleted in Ukraine.
So, while China would absolutely not want to be dragged into a protracted war, it would be sheer idiocy for them not to plan for one while hoping for a quick decisive win.