Image is sourced from this article depicting the 28th ASEAN Plus Three Summit, which took place at the same time as the 47th ASEAN Summit.
Last week concluded the 47th summit of ASEAN in Malaysia as well as a swathe of concurrent summits surrounding ASEAN. For those unfamiliar, formally, China is not a member of ASEAN, but is part of the ASEAN Plus Three (as part of the "Three", alongside Japan and Occupied Southern Korea). And while not really ASEAN, there is also a yet wider organization, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which tacks on Australia and New Zealand to the group of countries that are currently in ASEAN (which is the single largest trade bloc on the planet). At the summit, Timor-Leste was officially introduced into ASEAN, making it the 11th country to do and the first since Cambodia in 1999.
Many important figures throughout Asia, as well as Trump, Ramaphosa, and Lula, attended the event. As you can imagine, Trump's appearance was not exactly positive - signing four rather coerced bilateral deals there, including with Malaysia, which forced those countries to buy American goods in exchange for certain exemptions from Trump's high tariff regime. The US is currently in a bit of a panic due to China restricting access to rare earths, a critical component of many weapons technologies (and electronics in general) and is looking around for countries to help supply them. After the summit, the US and China signed a deal related to tariffs and rare earths, but it seems very unlikely that this is the end of the saga; the US politically, economically, and militarily cannot tolerate China's existence as a sovereign actor and will try to overcome them until the American Empire topples.
Meanwhile, China did as they ordinarily do, and urged higher regional integration and trade without high tariffs, as well as adherence to the Global Governance Initiative (which, as we here never tire of noting, is an interesting thing to try and encourage while the US only more feverishly violates the sovereignty of nations everywhere). One hopes they're supplying a bit more than just speeches to Venezuela, Cuba, and beyond, as the US prepares to start bombing.
Last week's thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Deterrence might work. WSJ says Trump is hesitating about Venezuela strikes
https://archive.is/BdJxh
spoiler
WASHINGTON—President Trump has recently expressed reservations to top aides about launching military action to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fearing that strikes might not compel the autocrat to step down, according to U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations.The debate underscores that the administration’s Venezuela strategy remains in flux, despite a buildup of military forces in the region and public threats by Trump to launch attacks.
What began as a counternarcotics campaign with airstrikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels has transitioned into the most muscular U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean in decades—one now squarely aimed at pressuring, and potentially ousting, Maduro.
But even basic questions, such as whether the goal is to remove Maduro or compel him into concessions, remain undecided, the officials said.
Trump continues to query aides about military options, the officials noted, leading some to suggest the president might eventually order an attack. The options presented to him range from intensifying economic pressure to military action inside Venezuela, including possibly against military and government facilities.
For now, officials say Trump is content with slowly building up U.S. forces in the region and continuing to strike boats allegedly smuggling drugs in the Caribbean and Pacific. The latest such attack occurred Tuesday when the U.S. military destroyed a vessel in the Eastern Pacific, killing two alleged drug traffickers.
“We’re blowing them up, linked to the Maduro regime in Venezuela and others,” Trump said Wednesday during a speech in Miami.
There is no timeline for a decision on whether to step up the campaign, officials said. Trump remains wary about getting directly involved in Venezuela after a first-term attempt to oust Maduro by supporting his opposition failed, former officials involved in that effort said. He also has longstanding apprehensions about using the military for possible regime change.
“The president has said he would continue to strike narcoterrorists trafficking illicit narcotics—anything else is speculation and should be treated as such,” said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary.
Trump has been presented with three broad options to increase pressure on Maduro, the officials said.
They include stepping up economic pressure on Venezuela with sanctions and increased tariffs on countries that buy its oil; supporting Venezuela’s opposition while adding more U.S. military assets in the region to raise pressure on Maduro; and finally a campaign of airstrikes or covert operations aimed at government and military facilities and personnel. The options were previously reported by the New York Times.
The Justice Department is working on a legal justification allowing Trump to target the Venezuelan leader as part of a military operation, the officials added. Justice Department officials didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The Trump administration has branded Maduro a “narco-terrorist,” accusing him of heading a trafficking network that is conspiring to “flood the United States with cocaine.” The U.S. in August issued a $50 million reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Maduro for narcotrafficking.
The steps taken already by the U.S. to persuade him that he can’t remain in power could prompt some members of the country’s security elite to turn on Maduro and oust him first, U.S. officials say.
The administration has been in touch with the Venezuelan opposition, current and former officials said.
“Maduro has to understand that the hours are running out,” Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said Wednesday, speaking remotely to a Miami business forum that Trump was also attending. “If he accepts a transition, it will move forward orderly and faster—but it will take place regardless of whatever Maduro does.”
Some U.S. officials say there is no need to force out Maduro as long as he agrees to curb drug trafficking, give the U.S. more access to Venezuela’s oil reserves and promises to hold fair elections.
Sen. Jim Risch (R, Idaho), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in an interview that Maduro has conspired with drug cartels designated by the U.S. as terrorists, “and is going to be subject to the same fate.”
But Risch, who also sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, added that he has seen no indication of the U.S. preparing military actions against Venezuela. “The president could change his mind, of course, because he is becoming very impatient and very unhappy with Maduro.”
Some senior Democrats think it is unlikely Trump will actually take military action.
“The press is far more convinced that the United States is going to attack Venezuela in some way than the administration actually is,” Rep. Jim Himes (D., Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said in an appearance Tuesday at the Council on Foreign Relations. “I continue to be pretty bearish on the notion that we’re going to get militarily involved in Latin America.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security adviser, has played a major role in crafting Trump’s strategy and military campaign against drug boats, officials and State Department aides said. He briefed lawmakers on the plan Wednesday afternoon.
Last week, Trump publicly warned about possible attacks inside Venezuela. “The land is going to be next,” he told reporters, suggesting strikes directly within the country.
But he has toned down his comments since. Asked Friday by reporters if he was considering bombing military targets in Venezuela, Trump flatly said “No.” He then told CBS News’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday that he doubted the U.S. would go to war with Venezuela. But asked if Maduro’s days as president were numbered, he answered: “I would say, ‘Yeah.’ I think so, yeah.”
Maduro has accused Washington of trying to topple him, calling the military campaign “regime change through military threat.” Yet in a letter to Trump after the initial strikes in September, Maduro promised to produce data showing his country doesn’t traffic drugs. Last month, Trump said Maduro was willing to give “everything” to ease tensions, adding “he doesn’t want to f—around with the United States.”
Trump has switched course on military action before. He initially sought a deal to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, giving Tehran up to two weeks before he would authorize strikes. But within hours, B-2 bombers destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities, an operation Trump touts as a major success.
The Pentagon announced Oct. 24 that Trump had ordered the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford and its carrier strike group to the Caribbean, where it will join eight naval warships already in the region. The arrival of the Ford and its accompanying warships will give the U.S. additional firepower in the event Trump decides to order airstrikes, using jet fighters and long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The carrier spent the past 12 days making its way across the Mediterranean, a much slower pace than anticipated. It is likely the ship is moving slowly to complete additional training, including flight operations, to prepare for the Caribbean deployment, experts said. It is also due to undergo routine maintenance before entering a potential war zone, according to two U.S. officials.
“When they deployed, they probably didn’t prepare for this scenario, this operation in the Caribbean,” said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “I think this is probably the need for them to make sure that they are proficient at the kinds of actions they would need to do in the Caribbean.”
If the US is openly reconsidering its position (which, I must warn everyone, is NOT a given until the ships turn home) why would Maduro accept concessions?
The biggest threat to Venezuelan sovereignty, and Maduro's own life, is a bombing campaign that would demilitarise the Venezuelan airforce and enable free movement of US-backed militias. If they're taking that off the table, then what leverage do the Americans have that they won't renege on later?
So there's no need to force Maduro out if he leaves himself? Incredible journalism going on here folks, no one could have come to this conclusion otherwise.
It was spotted transiting the Strait of Gibraltar two days ago, and was already in the Atlantic. So it's already far away from any ports now. How quickly it arrives depends on the speed of the escorts, supply ships, and how much strain they want to put on the reactors.
the beauty of the u.s.'s position here is that they can claim a victory against the "drug runners" any time they want since venezuela is not a significant supplier to the u.s.'s unrelenting appetite for drug use.
trump specifically may be reticent to escalate onto the mainland because he appears to be under the mistaken belief that the purpose of the imperial military is to "win wars" instead of just create chaos and destabilization around the globe. whether continued murder and mayhem proceed likely comes down to how good a sales job the brass does assuring him that he won't come out looking like a loser.
I believe their primary goal is to keep China's influence out of the Western Hemisphere.
They can bomb Venezuela into the stone age, no doubt, but if Chavismo remains in power, who is inevitably going to help them rebuild? China, of course. And the US would not get ANY of their oil at that point. So bombing may not achieve their goals.