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Anyone that says fire striking ATC's like Reagan did in the 80s. The 90s was when cheap domestic and international flights really took off along with businesses going international going full bore. Compared to the 80s, the economy is far more dependent on air travel and that disruption to shipping activity is what would end the shutdown.
A lot more ATCs are needed today compared to the 80s and the military shifted to less in volume but more expensive (supposedly higher quality that makes up the difference in quantity) military. Military ATCs don't have the numbers to replace regular ATCs
Could they even shift over the ATC from the military? I feel like the air base near me is even more active then ever these days.
They could as long as the US doesn't get into a very major war that requires a huge amount of logistics for overseas equipment and personnel. Can't do it for long because of how many military bases are overseas. Maybe you're seeing traffic related to Venezuela and the hurricane. Regardless it's just not enough people. The military doesn't staff as much as they used to, don't operate as much aircraft like they used too (though it's all much more expensive even inflation adjusted).
I can see them shifting military ATC's to airports and having airports restrict flights down a lot to favor flights carrying commercial cargo. If you're flying somewhere and there's enough cargo space expected for FedEx, USPS, UPS to pay to jam some cargo in there, good. If not, shit out of luck. FedEx, UPS, USPS, DHL, etc - their planes probably get scheduled with priority