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For sure, it's very difficult to tell what's really happening on the ground in the short term. However, we can see the general trends in the conflict. The main things I try to pay attention to is the rhetoric and how things have been developing up to this point. The west becoming ever more shrill is a strong indicator that things aren't going the way the west hoped. Western admissions about stuff like shell production are also very telling, because it's now becoming accepted even in western media that Russia has the upper hand in terms of military production. On the other hand, Russia has been acting very calmly and doesn't react to provocations.
We also see that Russia has basically been on the offensive since they broke the big Ukrainian offensive in 2023. The overall pattern seems to be that Russia is using their numerical advantage to create a huge front, and push whenever they identify a weak point. This forces Ukraine to run their elite units to plug holes which in turn creates new ones for Russia to exploit. Ukrainian units continue to be attrited as a result, and they never have a chance to rotate and rest. The big question is how long the AFU can keep this up. I very much underestimated Ukraine's capacity to keep the war going, and at this point I really don't know when the breaking point will come.