An excerpt has surfaced from the AI2027 podcast with siskind and the ex AI researcher, where the dear doctor makes the case for how an AGI could build an army of terminators in a year if it wanted.
It goes something like: OpenAI is worth as much as all US car companies (except tesla) combined, so it could buy up every car factory and convert it to a murderbot factory, because that's kind of like what the US gov did in WW2 to build bombers, reaching peak capacity in three years, and AGI would obviously be more efficient than a US wartime gov so let's say one year, generally a completely unassailable syllogism from very serious people.
Even /r/ssc commenters are calling him out about the whole AI doomer thing getting more noticeably culty than usual edit: The thread even features a rare heavily downvoted siskind post, -10 at the time of this edit.
The latter part of the clip is the interviewer pointing out that there might be technological bottlenecks that could require upending our entire economic model before stuff like curing cancer could be achieved, positing that if we somehow had AGI-like tech in the 1960s it would probably have to use its limited means to invent the entire tech tree that leads to late 2020s GPUs out of thin air, international supply chains and all, before starting on the road to becoming really useful.
Siskind then goes "nuh-uh!" and ultimately proceeds to give Elon's metaphorical asshole a tongue bath of unprecedented depth and rigor, all but claiming that what's keeping modern technology down is the inability to extract more man hours from Grimes' ex, and that's how we should view the eventual AGI-LLMs, like wittle Elons that don't need sleep. And didn't you know, having non-experts micromanage everything in a project is cool and awesome actually.
Wonder how many people stopped being AI-doomers after this. I use the same argument against ai-doom.
E: the guy doing the most basic 'It really is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.' bit in the comments and have somebody just explode in 'not being able to imagine it properly' is a bit amusing. I know how it feels to just have a massive hard to control reaction over stuff like that but oof what are you doing man. And that poor anti-capitalist guy is in for a rude awakening when he discovers what kind of place r/ssc is.
E2: Scott is now going 'this clip is taken out of context!' not that the context improves it. (He claims he was explaining what others believe not what he believes, but if that is so, why are you so aggressively defending the stance? Hope this Scott guy doesn't have a history of lying about his real beliefs).
Others as in specifically his co-writer for AI2027 Daniel Kokotlajo, the actual ex-OpenAI researcher.
Pay no attention to this thing we just spent two hours exhaustively discussing that I totally wasn't into, it's not really relevant context.
Also the title is inflammatory only in the context of already knowing him for a ridiculous AI doomer, otherwise it's fine. Inflammatory would be calling the video economically illiterate bald person thinks evaluations force-buy car factories, China having biomedicine research is like Elon running SpaceX .
Here's a couple:
Microsoft's Visual Studio says it's going to incorporate coding 'agents' as soon as maybe the next minor version. I can't really see them buying up car factories or beating pokemon, but agent- as an AI marketing term is definitely a part of the current hype cycle.
LLM agents can beat Pokemon... if you give them enough customized tools and prompting that with the same number of lines of instruction you could just directly code a bot that beats Pokemon without an LLM in the first place. And you don't mind the LLM agent playing much much worse than literal children.
Isn’t that basically Yud’s robot god inferring general relativity from three frames of video of an apple falling?
If it gets smart enough it will start finding hacks, like those INT- increasing potions in Morrowind that increased your Alchemy so you could make even better INT-potions.
It might even get smart enough to escape the Elder Scrolls; and start playing another game!
That IQ after a certain level somehow turns into mana points is a core rationalist assumption about how intelligence works.
I'm not very up on my Elder Scrolls lore, but I think this is where I'm supposed to say something about CHIM?
Grinding in Oblivion you say?
Unclear to me what Daniel actually did as a 'researcher' besides draw a curve going up on a chalkboard (true story, the one interaction I had with LeCun was showing him Daniel's LW acct that is just singularity posting and Yann thought it was big funny). I admit, I am guilty of engineer gatekeeping posting here, but I always read Danny boy as a guy they hired to give lip service to the whole "we are taking safety very seriously, so we hired LW philosophers" and then after Sam did the uno reverse coup, he dropped all pretense of giving a shit/ funding their fan fac circles.
Ex-OAI "governance" researcher just means they couldn't forecast that they were the marks all along. This is my belief, unless he reveals that he superforecasted altman would coup and sideline him in 1998. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, and they have evidence that Daniel actually understands how computers work.
Didn't mean to imply otherwise, just wanted to point out that the call is coming from inside the house.
np, im just screaming into the void on this beautiful Monday morning
Literally the only difference between Scott's beliefs and AI:2027 as a whole is his ~~prophecy~~ estimate is a year or two later. (I bet he'll be playing up that difference as AI 2027 fails to happen in 2027, then also doesn't happen in 2028.)
Elsewhere in the thread he whines to the mods that the original poster is spamming every subreddit vaguely lesswrong or EA related with engagement bait. That poster is katxwoods... as in Kat Woods... as in a member of Nonlinear, the EA "organization" whose idea of philanthropic research was nonstop exotic vacations around the world. And, iirc, they are most infamous among us sneerer for "hiring" an underpaid (really underpaid, like couldn't afford basic necessities) intern they also used as a 24/7 live-in errand girl, drug runner, and sexual servant.
Deleted earlier message, sorry I called Scott out for not doing things he had done. Even if the whole mods 'restricting her messages now only after she went after Scott' is quite iffy. (LW people write normally challenge failed "One upfront caveat. I am speaking about “Kat Woods” the public figure, not the person. If you read something here and think, “That’s not a true/nice statement about Kat Woods”, you should know that I would instead like you to think “That’s not a true/nice statement about the public persona Kat Woods, the real human with complex goals who I'm sure is actually really cool if I ever met her, appears to be cultivating.”" (The idea is good, this just reads like a bit of a sovcit style text and could have been replaced with 'I mean this not as an attack on her personally, I'm just doubting the effectiveness of her spammy posting style'). (E: I do agree with them however, not the 'we should check if this is effective' but more that the posting style is low effort, annoying, boring, dated, bit cringe etc).
Also: Scott: 'Mods mods mods, kat spill my jice help hel help help'
I am of course referring here to KAT WOODS the fictional corporate person, and not x_X_69_kat-of-the-family-woods_69_X_x the flesh and blood woman created by our Lord and Savior.