this post was submitted on 24 Apr 2025
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I love seeing all the tacticool "operators" with their tricked out ARs, bulletproof vests and helmets, flexicuffs, and other shit but look like they get gassed slowly ascending the stairs from their mother's basement. Rule #1 in the zombie apocalypse is Cardio.
Also society isn't going to collapse overnight. If it does it will be a slow crawl until going full Gravy Seal is warranted. They need to survive until then.
Not if it goes down like you expect it to.
In my experience, the real problems are the ones you weren't planning for.
Even if we don't end up nuking each other like we thought we would in the 60s-90s, we could still get a massive asteroid / comet strike with less than a week's notice. That innocent looking star 23 light years away could have collapsed 22.99 years ago and zap us with a gamma ray burst next week.
More likely: something we don't even know about comes along and makes life far more challenging than it has been for 100,000 years.
Humans are very bad at intuitively grasping very large and very small numbers, and that includes very small probabilities. The odds of a civilization-ending asteroid or comet hitting Earth in the next century is minuscule. Especially with the "not seeing it until it's a week away" condition, we've come a very long way when it comes to mapping near-Earth asteroids and there just aren't any places for them to hide any more. Especially not once Vera C. Rubin goes online.
A star that's capable of producing a gamma ray burst is not "innocent-looking", it's actually very obvious. There are none that are that close to us. They'd also need to have a very precisely aimed axis to hit us, gamma ray bursts look so bright in part because their "beam" is so narrow.
Absolutely, based on the information we have today.
That dark swarm of asteroids that was launched out of the Magellanic Cloud 8 billion years ago that's coming on a direct collision course against the Milky Way rotation - yeah, we don't know about that one.
The thing about our probabilities of events that haven't happened yet to leave a scar that we can notice on the surface of the Earth, we haven't been very good at observing the sky except for the last 100 years or so, really 50. So, we're learning more and more about things and newly discovered hazards don't lower the probability of occurrence...
That we know of the mechanism that produced the burst. What we don't know about that star is the super Jupiters orbiting it in a quasi stable multi-body arrangement that could collapse a bunch of mass into the star and turn it from Jekyll to Hyde under your bed ASAP.
You guys are prepping for Jupiter to become a second sun? That’s hard fucking core man!
Space is BIG. Even if your asteroid idea happened, I can confidently say it won't hit us, because the numbers are so much in favor of them not. Earth is a ridiculously small target compared to the space in the solar system, and we have Jupiter that throws everything out and protects us. It's not happening, and even if it did it'll likely hit water, and even if it hits land it likely won't be near you.
Prepare for a car accident. Don't prepare for asteroid impact. Youre wasting your time and money in the later and, though the former is relatively unlikely to be needed, it's actually realistic that it may happen to you. Until you're prepared for that, for a house fire, for a break in, for a medical emergency, and for anything else that's relatively likely, you're wasting your resources.
Right. You have to dream up counterfactual fantasies in order for it to be a problem.
And you don't need to worry about it, because as I said, the human mind is very bad at intuitively grasping the implications of very large or very small numbers.
Go ahead and actually calculate what risk there might be from something like this. How much mass do those asteroids have? What's their collective cross-section, and how does that compare to the volume of space they'd be passing through? How big is Earth in comparison?
I'm betting the odds will still be microscopic. I feel safe betting that because we have real world evidence that bodies in our solar system don't frequently get hit by ghost asteroids from the Magellanic Cloud (there's an 80's sci-fi movie title for you). Large impacts are few and far between these days,
Once again, sure, you could imagine that ordinary stars sometimes miraculously pop like balloons to spray us with liquid death.
If you want it to actually be a worrying scenario, though, it needs to be backed up with some kind of evidence or theory that makes it plausible. And again, we don't actually see frequent gamma ray bursts in reality, so whatever mechanism you propose needs to be rare for it to fit the data.