this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2025
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Politics
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@remington hot take: I think Ukraine will actually allow European companies access to rare earth minerals, as long as they also offer some production facilities locally - this will be especially useful for military purposes. Europe will also take advantage of locally produced Lithium batteries, necessary for cars and various electronics, and this in turn will make Ukraine even more attractive to Europe as a whole and will also be willing to make more concessions to Ukraine.
If I'm not mistaken, the US already has access to various rare earth minerals, that's why for them, it is not so important and they can bluff. Zelenskyy just wanted to raise some interest for Trump in this whole rare earth thing in exchange for protection, but Trump saw the opportunity, and he's now trying to twist this to his own interest (i.e. give me all your minerals, or you'll no longer get support from us).
Ukraine is very lucky to have an extremely clever president who won't easily give in. I guess the memory of the whole Budapest Memorandum fiasco also helps.
This largely relies on Europe getting its shit together in the face of a sudden trans-Atlantic shift. The resources are there; the question is the timeline. Everyone's scrambling to figure out what NATO actually is, which provides this wedge.
@Powderhorn I think the incentive is there. The new chancellor of Germany is very americano-sceptic (given the current situation) and I do not think France will stand aside. Denmark is facing a possible future aggressor so it's more likely to also push for europenism and other states might follow suit as well. Right now we're caught off-guard indeed.
Have you read his bio? He is THE prototype trans-atlantic hawk, and still he looks like he is turning away from the US right now.
On the other hand, he is not elected Chancellor yet, so we won't know for sure until then. Triggering a vote of no confidence would be REALLY dangerous right now, lest the far right gain even more votes. So he kind of has this leverage against his future coalition partner.
I see what you mean. Good points.