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This is why women choose the bear
(i.imgur.com)
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You're changing the hypothetical into something it's not. "Odds of success" are a weird thing to think about when it's just a walk in the woods.
The scenario is you are lost in the woods and you either have to choose between a wild bear, or a random man.
Many types of bears won't run away, they will actively attack you. Some will run, but many will simply tear you limb from limb just cuz.