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this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2024
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Can you square this for me?
So early votes are very solidly Republican in (NC). Like, if we assume Republicans voted for Trump and Democrats voted for Harris, we'd be calling NC already for Trump. If this were a normal election, we could pretty confidently say that NC is going to go for Trump.
The conflicting result, is that women are voting at an eye-blurring 10% more than male voters. This requires we speculate that women voters (and specifically, Republican women) are breaking disproportionately for Harris. But its notable that +10 to women is a remarkable result. But the historical data would suggest that this favors Trump, since white women mostly vote Trump ('16, and '20) in this state.
So the naive, historical interpretation is that Trump is/ has already won NC. This could be backed up with an additional line of evidence that the Harris campaign has given up on NC.
The speculative interpretation is that Republican women are turning tides on their individual ballots and breaking for Harris. This would be ahistorical given '16 and '20.
The naive historical interpretation fails to explain the gender gap.