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What is the current state of Lemmy?
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Other than reddit going for subscription or complete outage over some time I am not sure any event will cause another influx. A lot of people didn't care about the whole API drama, since they either never knew about 3rd party apps or just went back the official app. The official app might slowly get worse and worse but if it happens slow enough, these kind of users won't care.
There probably will be something. We may not be able to predict it. But reddit will pull a Digg or a Twitter at some point and people will be looking for alternatives. Then we get another surge of users.
Alternatively, one of the federated Lemmy alternatives (Sublinks, Mbin, Piefed) might hit the right audience and push up the platform userbase.