143
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2024
143 points (95.0% liked)
politics
19102 readers
3444 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
TL;DR because they're paid to say it's going to be good for them while, in actuality, if the candidates were tied on election day Democrats would lose big due to gerrymandering and the electoral college.
I am hopeful the outcomes improve, though.
This is the very first round of polling and she's already doing better than Biden could have dreamed.
Plus, the polls keep underestimating the turn out for Democrats ever since Trump's first term
This is just not true. I've seen it repeated several times today. Not sure where you picked it up but its patently false.
Biden under-performed his polling across the board by 4%. He did worse than the polls projected him to do.
It should have been a barn-burner. It was a squeaker.
Picked it up from another post where the poster was posting the numbers and theorizing that polls got less accurate because they are getting mostly landlines as people don't tend to answer unknown numbers on their smart phones
That's correct. Very few people under 50 answer the phone if they don't recognize the number. Biden didn't underperform, and definitely not by 8%. Doesn't anyone remember Georgia?
Black women (and others) handed him an upset victory. Here's the polls: Biden was supposed to win by a percent.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/georgia/
He won by half a percent:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Georgia
Yeah, whoever that is, dont listen to them. They do not know what they are talking about.
Here is the right answer:
https://lemmy.world/post/15291274?scrollToComments=true
Biden's results came in at an average of -4 to where polling in Oct/November told us he would be. Trump's results came in at an average of +8 to what we expected from the same polling window.
The data we have says that polls currently over estimate Democratic performance in presidential elections. In estimating polling advantage going into this, we should give Trump +8 like we saw in 2020 (we saw a similar number in 2016). We should give Harris a 0 (no advantage/ disadvantage).
This means that Democrats need to be +8 on Trump in the aggregate to break even. I think this is very very doable, but consider that Biden has been -1 to -10 on Trump for over 500 days. This would translate to a -13 to minus -23 polling disadvantage for Biden. Its why everyone who knows anything has been saying Biden doesn't stand a chance since December.
It helps not to have dementia :)
Because she's polling higher than Biden. That's the reason. In a few days we'll have better data. If equal numbers continues into a trend then that's good because she's already brought people back on side. Obviously if her numbers go above Trump that's just great news all around. But this is breathing life into what was a dead campaign.