[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 4 points 3 hours ago

Well that’s a relief.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 1 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 22 hours ago)

I'm not too worried about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrat from California upset that we change from Biden

Californians don’t matter here. Voters in swing states like Pennsylvania do. Ohioans are less likely to vote for Gavin Newsom over Biden. If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.

Look, I despise Biden since he ignored all his advisors and set a disastrous Gaza policy, and want anyone but him. He was one of the worst candidates of 2020 but since he was “the most electable” we were told to shut up and fall in line. His electability has faltered. But it’s almost July, the window of time to replace him and win already closed. I’m not going to keep arguing, we’ll agree to disagree.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.

Biden’s numbers are baked in.

No, we have a president who is ahead in some polls and behind in others, 6 months before an election (which is generally unreliable since the polls fluctuate wildly this early). Pollsters and political scientists unanimously report polling in June is not reliable this soon before Labor Day. Look back and you’ll see HIllary, Romney, and Dukakis all ahead at this point in previous elections. The reason we are having this conversation is because people got skittish about the Debate, but we don’t even have accurate post-debate survey data at this time. The snap surveys by CNN and others showed a muddle of some people claiming Biden won anyway and others not. More data will come in next week.

And don’t forget the counterfactual; if you replace Biden despite winning the primaries in a landslide, you will anger many voters. Millions of people voted for Biden and this was not close; they rejected Dean Phillips and alternatives. People voted for Harris as a known backup; skipping her and having Newsom take over will cause a storm and backlash of a size we can’t quantify yet. There simply isn’t any data on Democratic voters that show any Biden remorse; you’re operating on the vibes from social media and some pundits.

In truth, we really haven’t been through this already.

Correct, and replacing Biden is a huge risk. It could cost the election the same way John McCain took a gamble on Sarah Palin and lost.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

We already have Newsom vs Biden and Newsom vs Trump polls. And the pundits talked endlessly in 2020 about the shortcomings of each candidate and why they’d struggle against Trump. We’ve been through this already.

If Biden steps down then of course whoever gets nominated will get a bump of course, but like we discussed collectively in 2020, they’d have their own separate hurdles. Bernie Sanders would energize many voters but his socialism talk would turn many voters off. Pete Buttigieg struggled to connect with voters of color. Warren had some political flubs and Trump launched many attacks on her etc. while there’s concern many Americans still won’t vote for a woman for president, and so on. The point I’m making is that you may find yourself in a situation in October where you WISH Biden was running again with his high poll numbers and solid national record that other candidates lack.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

Show me one with higher poll numbers than Biden. When they were head to head in 2020 each polled lower than Biden against Trump.

I don’t want to defend Biden. He should go. He is a corrupt old man with a ton of baggage and his Palestine policy was atrocious. But I don’t see any of those people beating Trump based on the data we have.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 13 points 2 days ago

We all know that Biden is a liability. BUT WHO WILL REPLACE HIM? I don’t like the man but who else in the party can take his role? Nobody credibly challenged him during the primary. Harris doesn’t poll as well as Biden and does worse. We’re stuck with him because nobody stepped up all year or last year, and everyone who wants him to step down thinks some magic TBD savior can show up out of nowhere and magically do better. Heck, Dean Phillips tried to run for president on the exact same issues and promised identical policies just in a younger person and he lost the race badly.

We’re stuck with Biden, and likely will lose.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 32 points 2 days ago

The problem is that the debate doesn’t really change much… except for low information and undecided voters. They don’t know what Trump is spewing and whether it’s a lie or not. When he makes up wild claims that Biden is unanimously declared worst president in history, they don’t know that’s a lie, or that Trump is lying about capping the price of insulin or the existence of 9 month elective abortions, etc. Trump’s confident lies actually win over a lot of undecided people who don’t do any research into the topic.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 14 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

No. Germany can recognize Jewish lives and the worldwide Jewish community without needing to play into the hands of a rightwing apartheid state and getting involved smack in the middle of their political dispute. This isn’t hard; it’s like being able to say Black Lives Matter without having to support and endorse the controversial policies of Louis Farrakhan.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 23 points 3 days ago

The Israeli military is throwing out a ton of excuses rather than even give someone a mild punishment. They claim it was his idea, that they were transporting him to a hospital and no room in the car, etc. The video shows this is a lie.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 16 points 3 days ago

Jon Stewart last week pointed out the irony of Fox News being unable to handle this data, despite pushing the “facts don’t care about your feelings” mantra for years.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 26 points 3 days ago

And 15% of the world’s prisoners.

[-] SulaymanF@lemmy.world 24 points 3 days ago

This is idiotic. Gandhi hated that Pakistan split off and said that he recognized their existence but would never recognize their “right” to exist.

That’s not even an international policy. Does Castile have a right to exist? Does Kashmir? Does Kurdistan? Why doesn’t Germany demand the same for others?

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When former president Donald Trump’s media start-up announced in October 2021 that it planned to merge with a Miami-based company called Digital World Acquisition, the deal was an instant stock-market hit.


With the $300 million Digital World had already raised from investors, Trump Media & Technology Group, creator of the pro-Trump social network Truth Social, pledged then that the merger would create a tech titan worth $875 million at the start and, depending on the stock’s performance, up to $1.7 billion later.


All they needed was for the merger to close — a process that Digital World, in a July 2021 preliminary prospectus, estimated would happen within 12 to 18 months.

“Everyone asks me why doesn’t someone stand up to Big Tech? Well, we will be soon!” Trump said in a Trump Media statement that month.


Now, almost two years later, the deal faces what could be a catastrophic threat. With the merger stalled for months, Digital World is fast approaching a Sept. 8 deadline for the merger to close and has scheduled a shareholder meeting for Tuesday in hopes of getting enough votes to extend the deadline another year.


If the vote fails, Digital World will be required by law to liquidate and return $300 million to its shareholders, leaving Trump’s company with nothing from the transaction.


For Digital World, it would signal the ultimate financial fall from grace for a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, that turned its proximity to the former president into what was once one of the stock market’s hottest trades. Its share price, which peaked in its first hours at $175, has since fallen to about $14.



Digital World’s efforts to merge with Trump Media have been troubled almost from the start, beset by allegations that it began its conversations with the former president’s company before they were permitted under SPAC rules.


Then, in the past year, its issues became more pronounced: Its chief executive was terminated by the board, a former board member was arrested on charges of insider trading, and the company agreed to pay an $18 million settlement to resolve charges that it had misled investors and given false information to the Securities and Exchange Commission.


The merger has “been pretty much unprecedented in terms of all of the glitches,” said Jay Ritter, a University of Florida finance professor who studies stock markets. “The deal does seem to be running out of time. You can’t just keep getting extensions forever.”


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SulaymanF

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