SineIraEtStudio

I think they are referring to the huge block of text within the spoilers. Makes it difficult to read.

I see what you're saying, but I'm not sure that would be the case.

Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an oppressive invading country and I don't know (emphasis on I don't know) that they have more foreign fighters than Russia (mostly North Korea, but also Cuba, Africa, etc.).

I do know Ukraine has some foreign legions(?) with a significant number of Columbians and Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans from multiple countries, along with anti-Putin Russians and Belarusian forces.

Ukraine's low numbers (my understanding of their numbers) could be due to financial and logistical (training and supplies/equipment) constraints though.

I would say it's a good thing that Russian fighters are doing so for the money, because once the money dries up they will stop showing up.

I believe we are seeing two things recently. The first is a drop of financially motivated fighters from Russia (reasoning: drop in signing bonuses, ex. 3M to 400k in some oblasts). The second is a downward spiral of their economy (civilian industries cutting hours and 40%(?) of their oil refining capacity currently diminished), coupled with the emptying of their soverign fund (originally 150B, now less than 40B(?)).

To me it looks like they are running out of funds and financial motivated fighters.

That's not to say they will run out of fighters. I believe they recently or are in the process of allowing their "active reserve" to be called up to serve in Ukraine. If I recall correctly, their "active reserve" was 2M personnel. The analysis I read (Institute of War?) was that Russia wouldn't call them all at once, but do a rolling callup to sustain fighting and potentially release the mobilized soldiers from 2023(?). This would allow them to claim a "volunteer" only force and still have enough fighters while not paying high signup bonuses (potentially).

However, everyone who wanted to volunteer for "patriot" reasons has already done so at this point. They have or in the process of using up all their financially motivated options. Therefore, I expect their remaining "active reserve" will not be motivated and calling them up would increase unrest in Russia.

Will the unrest be enough to topple Putin? No idea. There seems to be quite a few factors pushing against him resently that could cause a coup/revolutionary moment. Gasoline shortage, massive inflation, economic downward spiral, Ukrainian drones being able to hit deep into Russia, Trump "possibly" helping Ukraine, consumer bank run on cash, etc.

If I had to guess, I would say it would happen around New Years time. My understanding is that New Years is a big celebration in Russian culture (equivalent to a combined Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years rolled into one) and that Russians spend big on that holiday. So, I suspect, that if a popular uprising happens it will happen around then.

FYI: I've clicked on 2 of your IF links and they both go to unrelated studies (Liu 2022, Thomas 2021).

As others have said, Solarpunk and Blahaj both seem like good options for you. You may want to consider their piefed instances, if that's something you are interested in.

Thanks for the recommendation. I'm about to finish a different history podcast (not Revolutions) and needed something else to check out. This will be next on my list.

~~Just FYI, your link didn't work for me, but I found it in my podcast app.~~

Edit: Link worked 2nd try.

A word of warning, each of the revolutions start with setup episode(s) that are rather dry and not particularly interesting but necessary to set the scene.

English (1st series) and American (2nd) are skippable. He was trying to make the revolutions fit a shorter format and it didn't really work.

I didn't know much about the French revolution (3rd) so that was pretty interesting.

The Independence of South America (5th), with Simon Bolivar, is good and has some set up for the Mexican revolution.

The european revolutions of the 1840s (7th) was really interesting and I'd never heard of them before. I feel like they are helpful in seeing how moderates react in a revolutionary setting.

The French Commune (8th) was interesting, especially in regard to how they dealt with the inevitable.

I think the Mexican Revolution (9th) was my favorite. Some great "characters" with Pancho Villa and Emiliano Zapata. My recollection is the setting is an elderly government that refused to give up power... That may or may not have relevance today.

The Russian Revolution (10th) was interesting in how a relatively small group (10k people) was able to take power in an apathetic population of 100M. Also, that the other politicians and groups thought the Communists were a joke and weren't really threatened when they took power.

Also, if you liked the Andor (Star Wars) show, the writer for that was apparently heavily influenced by the Revolutions podcast.

We have Concerns (Science-Comedy)

Revolutions (History)

Philosophize This (Philosophy)

I see what your saying better now and agree interaction of variables is important.

I believe there is a graph that has number of drones and missiles fired by Russia and the Ukrainian interception rate of those missiles. My recollection is that the number of missiles fired varies quite a bit month to month, but that inception rate took a nose dive recently.

I don't think Russian missile barrages are the cause of the interceptor hit rate change, but do not have any source to back that up.

In my view, that would either be due to the missile trajectory upgrade or if Ukraine ran out of interceptor missiles. I do not know if they are out of interceptor missiles or have changed their firing rate.

I forget my source (perhaps a recent Perun yt video), but the interception rate change is due to changes in Russian missile trajectory in the terminal phase.

Previously, Russian missiles followed an arc trajectory to hit their target and were comparatively easy to intercept because it's path until reaching it's target was predictable (an arc).

Now, Russian missiles follow an arc toward target A and then when they are over target B (real target) they enter a steep dive to hit target B.

Hopefully that was understandable and helpful.

Edit: changed potential source as a new Perun video came out today, and it's not my source.

I meant just spelling out the sounds. You don't need to record audio.

Awesome of you to consider that though :)

Would you be willing to provide pronunciations to the words? It would help me, as I can think of a couple ways to pronounce each of the words.