Finally, some good news.
Fermion
joined 2 years ago
The latest Moody's Talks Inside Economics episode covers the jobs numbers well and talks about some of thr concerning figures that undermine the headline job growth. Of note: total hours are down and labor force participation are down despite job openings increasing.
Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.
As-is, yes, it's essentially a goner. I would expect the existing growth to die off and a bunch of water shoots to emerge from below the wound. You could try to prune one of these shoots into a new central leader and cut off the old stem. You could try to get creative and cut strips of bark down to the cambium from the section above the wound and graft a bridge across the wound. But I would only do that if there was a specific attachment to trying to save that particular tree.
IMO you would be better off replacing it and getting trunk guards or making your own with aluminum window screen. Getting a healthy replacement planted will get you a healthier and bigger tree faster than trying to save what you have.
They still serve personalized ads in the podcasts. They aren't baked in.
I don't see the stock price not moving as evidence of the bubble collapsing.
In Q4 2025 only 5.5% of NVidia's revenue came from gaming products. That's revenue not profit, their other products have better margins than gaming. Also Nvidia already has 95% marketshare in gaming gpu's. So for them to grow more, they would have to increase the number of people gaming on PC or get into desktop cpu's or get a bunch of people paying a subscription for access to more profitable cloud services gpus.
Really I just see the stock price not reacting as an acknowledgement that nvidia and nvidia shareholders don't care at all about desktop gpu's. It's a vestigial appendage to what is now an AI hardware and networking company.
I'm an animal, Greg, can you track me?
I'm getting pretty tired of the notion that gambling odds are better predictors than polls.
Cheaper inverters and batteries would be the real game changers at this point. At least for DIY home solar.
They need to come up with their own policy proposals and not rip-off Vermin Supreme.
It's not even just the price of a ship and cargo. Lead times are around 2.8 to 3 yrs for crude tankers and around 3.5 yrs for LNG carriers. That's a long time to not be able to conduct business even if insurance did pay out. It is 100% rational to sit out a few weeks to figure out how to resume operations safely rather than trying to sneak through and hope for the best.
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The rebound makes no sense. Even if somehow no violence occurred after this date, enough infrastructure has been damaged and production taken offline to cause a significant supply shock that can't be absorbed by reserve releases. The closure of Hormuz will take its toll one way or another.
Plus, Iran is now incentivized to further develop a stranglehold on Hormuz transits so they can extract tolls to fund their rebuilding efforts. Any attempt to frustrate that will just result in them mining the straits, possibly with Houthi coordination interrupting Red Sea transits.
None of the fundamental problems are solved.