this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2026
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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is a still of an Ansarallah drone heading to blow up Saudi-backed forces in the port of Al-Mokha in southwestern Yemen.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleIt's once again been a relatively slow week, with "only" quite a few oil tankers being struck in the US's attempt at an oil corridor in Hormuz. I've seen several analysts speculate on just how leaky Hormuz might be despite Iran's attacks, and if it is leaky, then why and to what extent. Now that we're firmly in August, we have noticeably passed the predicted July ETAs on the physical oil cliff (the paper oil price manipulations notwithstanding), and so analysts are trying to find explanations for the current situation, in which various factors are being considered, of which I'll list a few I've seen personally.

First is, as I said, a potentially leaky Hormuz, because it's been revealed that in lieu of official corporate insurance, the US is directly paying captains massive sums of money if they're brave enough to try and run the strait under US air cover - hence why Iran keeps hitting tankers practically daily without them ever seeming to get the message. Obviously, this covert operation by itself would not be enough to even approach pre-war transit levels, and so there must be other factors going on. Second is Red Sea oil redirections predominantly by Saudi Arabia; if this was a big factor, it's something Ansarallah is now actively combatting with their blockade of the Bab el-Mandab and semi-regular strikes on their pipeline infrastructure. Third is that perhaps world oil reserves are somewhat larger than first considered, especially given China deciding to go on a bit of an oil diet over the last six months, and especially especially if countries really start pumping from one-shot emergency supplies; e.g. there's been much discussion by Naked Capitalism about just how much the US could extract from the rapidly dwindling SPR if it no longer cared about the irreversible damage to the storage caverns caused by pumping out as much as physically possible. Fourth and finally, perhaps the data on stockpiles was just bad in such as way that they were being consistently underestimated by e.g. 10% or so. Ultimately, regardless of the many complicated factors involved here, the antsy and indecisive behaviour of the US, as well as some anxiety about the midterms, betrays any attempts at American confidence (e.g. by Bessent) about this becoming a stable situation for even the medium term.

We've also seen some of the fruits of the serious discussions between Iran and Oman over how exactly Hormuz is going to be governed, with one major and intriguing proposal being that Iran could have total control over what vessels enter (i.e. tolling when entering), and Oman has partial control over what vessels leave, with Iran having a veto there too (i.e. no tolling when exiting, but de jure Iranian military control). Iran has come out and said that regardless of what they agree to with Oman, the US will have to make major concessions - at least on the order of the MoU concessions and perhaps even beyond them - for Hormuz shipping to restart. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye have signed some kind of military alliance or agreement of some kind; I'm waiting for some big expert analyses on the many implications before I give any takes here, but it's already been dealt a rather large embarrassment by Ansarallah seeming to not really a give a shit, continuing strikes on both Saudi pipeline infrastructure and also Saudi-backed mercenaries.

And finally, over in Latin America, the Southern Spear Joint Task Force has given way to a new version which looks likely to increase inland strikes, which is a major escalation from the strikes targeting mainly fishing boats, which were presumably done to a) cause socioeconomic fractures in certain countries (largely Venezuela), and b) further the kayfabe that the US is trying to stop drugs entering the US while obviously covertly further amplifying it through friendly comprador countries. While Latin America struggles to find its way forward out of American regional hegemony due to the rather mixed results of both electoralism and warfare (guerrilla and otherwise), what greatly interests me will be how the region's domestic capitalists respond to the attempts by the US to wean them off from China's growing economic sphere. I've wondered previously about whether a potential way out of imperium, in lieu of the ability of the region's working class to take (and, more critically, hold on to) power, will be China, intentionally or not, causing major fractures between the US capitalists seeking a monopoly to loot the continent as much as possible with the absolute minimum domestic development possible to maintain profits, and domestic capitalists who want to trade with an ever-growing China and internally develop their countries for their own self-benefit.


Last week's thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 26 points 8 hours ago (2 children)

Slavyangrad (Telegram)

🇺🇸 USA and Ukraine launch deep modernization of Soviet S-300 air defense systems to produce compatible guided missiles. The project aims for operational readiness by year-end, addressing depleted Western missile stocks. Annual output will be 100–300 units, covering 16–50% of current US Patriot production (~600/year). This serves as a temporary solution until PAC-3 expansion in 2029–2032. Program extends lifespan of existing 5V55 rockets with new solid-fuel engines and electronics from US engineering solutions tested on S-300 elements acquired in the 1990s and 2000s.

TLDR just another modernization program bro we just need one more modernization program and we'll suddenly out produce the Russians

[–] DasRav@hexbear.net 8 points 5 hours ago

"With the yearly production of the 300 missiles, final victory is at hand!"

"Mein Führer...the military industrial complex has just taken all the money and done nothing. Same as the last hundred times."

[–] Feed_el_Castro@hexbear.net 14 points 7 hours ago

Even if this were feasible by the end of the year (it's not), it's quite remarkable how much of a production gap the USSR had with their designs compared to the US, that even a half-depopulated colony in ruins for the past 35 years (Ukraine) would theoretically be able to cover 50% of all the US Patriot production after some modernization during the largest war in the region since WW2

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 35 points 8 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago) (1 children)

I just realised why Trump's saying this shit about DPRK.

He's doing it because South Korea have the only remaining THAAD and got mad when the US wanted to move them to the Iran war because they need them against DPRK.

He's doing this DPRK shit to pressure South Korea after they refused giving such critical systems to his war. Everyone remembers that drama early in the war right? When the system was supposed to be moved and then it suddenly wasn't being moved..

[–] DasRav@hexbear.net 9 points 5 hours ago

It's such a shame that Iran didn't get to blow that one up (yet).

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 32 points 10 hours ago (3 children)

Washington Discussing Nuclear Strike on Iran - MJT

Marjorie Taylor Greene claims US officials are considering lowering the threshold for using atomic weapons

Officials in Washington are allegedly discussing the possible use of nuclear weapons against Iran as the months-long conflict continues to escalate, former US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has claimed.

Greene, once a prominent MAGA ally, made the allegation in a post on X on Sunday. She said the issue had been raised during strategy meetings, but did not identify those involved or provide evidence.

“They are discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings,” she wrote. “I’m not speculating, I know. And it’s pure evil.”

Really unsurprising. Whether they do it or not who knows but the US refuses to lose, zionist entity won't stop and it must be awfully tempting for someone like Trump who would go down as the guy who got the US's ass kicked faster than any other in history within half of a single presidential term. Since they're obsessed with Hormuz and the nuclear sites including Pickaxe mountain I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to use one there and say it's definitely different than hitting a city. Of course this is MJT so she could just be fishing for attention and there could be no serious intention but I think it bears considering given the empire really feels backed into a corner, is running low on other munitions and has a ton of nukes which pack one hell of a punch with I'm sure many maniacs in the admin saying it would deter and intimidate Iran into accepting US terms and that it may depending on how much power reformists have and/or how willing to play chicken with a genocidal empire Iran is once that line is crossed.

[–] DasRav@hexbear.net 8 points 5 hours ago

I am hard-pressed to come up with a less trustworthy source then Marjorie Taylor Greene. And that's before she resigned from office. What possible access does she have now?

[–] marxisthayaca@hexbear.net 5 points 5 hours ago

Can’t say I’m shocked, they have no other recourse.

[–] limer@lemmy.ml 8 points 6 hours ago

I have long thought that when the devil threatens to use Nukes; that it could make him a lot of money. Especially if done off and on over many months, because that would rattle markets, repeatedly, and more so than oil manipulation.

But the most money he could ever make was by the market reacting after he exploded one.

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 42 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 18 hours ago) (4 children)

What a great way to slowly end this weekly megathread, I view this as a sister tweet to the famous "how Hitler could win WW2 - Don't siege Leningrad, take it immediately" tweet. The amazing thing is that there are dozens of replies, most of the people are congratulating the poster for his "great calls"???

https://xcancel.com/TMTLongShort/status/2088965811117675000

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 31 points 17 hours ago (3 children)

Funny but is this appropriate for the news megathread? Looks like /c/slop content to me. I hardly recognize the name. It would be one thing if it was one of our regular sources on Ukraine/Russia or something who regularly featured in this thread but I have no idea who this is.

[–] spectre@hexbear.net 17 points 14 hours ago

I agree, and i think the news mega should be more strictly moderated to only contain international news, however I think there can be an exception for Sundays to allow off-topic posts.

The exception to the exception is if there is a major new event going on, in which case the megathread should remain on-topic. If there is confusion, it can be determined by whether the comment count has reached 1000 by Sunday morning (if there is a modweek reset, those comments count too, ofc).

Steweie Griffin with a suit and a cigar

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 10 points 15 hours ago

Agreed. @Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net anything else you can add to this to give it some juice? Is this guy anyone of note or just another AI chud bone head?

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 44 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Al Jazeera mentioned this and I almost started laughing. I entirely forgot about it.

The Memorandum of Understanding signed between the US and Iran in June is set to expire, as talks to end the war remain deadlocked.

I guess it's time for MoU 2.0!

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 30 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

The end of the MoU and the fact that the US obviously doesn't want to make a deal (or is even agreement incapable) might signal to China to return to the crude oil buying market with full force. It is really stupid from China to draw down their reserves to give Trump time when obviously Trump only wants 'time' for more war, but not for a deal.

[–] buttwater@hexbear.net 24 points 15 hours ago

China is one of the biggest winners of trump's Iran war. Shared intel with Iran, expanded knowledge of US capabilities, improved relations around the world by selling its reserves, demonstrating its transition to renewable and rechargeable energy, and is an advantageous position when the US comes asking for materials to rebuild it's expended weapons. China loses nothing the more the us flails at Iran. Don't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake and all that

[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 40 points 19 hours ago (1 children)
[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 36 points 19 hours ago (4 children)

Also, Trump has announced that planned military exercises in South Korea will be "substantially reduced" due to his good relationship with Kim Jong-Un and SK's refusal to join the war in Iran

[–] edge@hexbear.net 4 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

North Korea continuing to prove that getting nukes is the best way to deter the Great Satan.

Hilarious that Trump essentially hates Iran for (supposedly) wanting nukes and loves North Korea for having nukes.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 6 points 8 hours ago

and SK's refusal to join the war in Iran

Yeah this is the real reason. SK not wanting to hand over more weapons, particularly the THAAD.

[–] wheresmysurplusvalue@hexbear.net 17 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago) (1 children)

Kim Jong Un of North Korea

...

Donald J. Trump has been President

...

Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth

...

President of South Korea [no name given]

He doesn't remember/know/care who Lee Jae Myung is

[–] userse31@hexbear.net 2 points 6 hours ago

He doesn't remember/know/care who Lee Jae Myung is

Tbf I don't either.

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 29 points 18 hours ago (2 children)

"While somewhat unrelated (?)"

[–] DerRedMax@hexbear.net 21 points 16 hours ago

Narrator: *It was, in fact, completely related. *

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 29 points 18 hours ago (1 children)
[–] CarmineCatboy2@hexbear.net 27 points 18 hours ago

he's such a diva. 'oh and, by the way, fuck you all!' right at the end of the message

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 35 points 19 hours ago (5 children)

Trita Parsi: "This image was sent to me from the field. These are messages US servicemen in the Persian Gulf have scribbled on the dust of an aircraft flap."

[–] D61@hexbear.net 2 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

I too, have a hard time spelling ~~speghatti~~ ~~spagetti~~ spaghetti.

[–] scrungus@hexbear.net 2 points 5 hours ago

Just start with a " : " and then "spa" and then spaghett comes up and you just add an "i" at the end. Ezpz!

[–] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 19 points 12 hours ago

I love israel I am a good goyim

Bibi's cucks

This is why I don't really care if messaging aimed at US audience promotes the "israel control America" & "dont die for israel" narrative (that is clearly not whats happening.)

Promoting disunity amongst the rank and file of US soldiers will achieve desired results so promote every constructive contradiction possible.

spoilerIt will be unpopular to say but its probable that the disaffected soldier stuffing his underwear into the aircraft carrier toilet probably did more to stop the killing of innocent children than the entire US left.


[–] context@hexbear.net 20 points 16 hours ago

honestly poop is a pretty difficult word for a game of hangman

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 21 points 18 hours ago

lmaooooo cultural victory sean bean dot wav

[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 27 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

I would have a little more sympathy if it wasn't 2026. What did you think you were signing up for?

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 31 points 18 hours ago

They were signing up for a murder-vacation. But now they are mad because they believe that Israel forced the US to attack a country that is able to defend themselves so no murder-vacation.

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