This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
Paul Krugman was predicting the 2008 crash as far back as 2004.
The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, as the saying goes.
I find it problematic that they are using forward PE as a comparison, because forward PE in and of itself is a guesstimate based on numbers a company puts out to attract investors. Sure, they can be audited, but there is plenty of creative accounting done to improve optics
this is far worst, and makes '08 look like a flu.
Millions die of flu every year.
Yeah and 08 was pretty bad.
And this will be worse.
That will result in massive order cancellations at NVDA, MU, AVGO, SNDK, etc., because no one needs the chips, networking, memory, or processor power," he added.
Well that is just false as there is pent up demand in the consumer markets that should be more than enough to make chip makers good money but I guess they don’t consider us regular folks real customers anymore
But graphics cards, CPUs, RAM, and other components needed in data centers are a far cry from the same components used in home and office desktops and laptops. It’s like trying to sell parts used in F1 race cars on the consumer car market. Technically, there will be buyers, but the vast majority of these parts will remain unsold because demand for such specialized components is negligible in the general consumer market.
The capacity will be freed.
I am sure nvidia can repurpose the dies for consumer focused stuff and call them whatever or put them into business/workstation SKUs instead of enterprise/DC applications.
Same for other products they sell.
They arent as hyper specialized as an F1 (except maybe for those extreme 5U gpu compute nodes. They can hardly repurpose those lol
Heyhey, I want a kW-(rain)water cooled tower, speak for yourself! :D
and these chips arnt compatible for personal/customer use too, so it will be wasted.
I could use some of them. But the power bill will make my eyes bleed.
I'm not sure if it's fully a bubble, or if the bubble is partly being used as a smoke screen to hide the upfront cost of redesigning computing infrastructure.
A lot of the time, I think AI is just the branding layer. The real goal is top-to-bottom SaaS.
Like, they're letting these AI companies hold the bag for building datacenters which will then get scooped by various companies like microsoft and google to offer virtualized home computing through a client.
This is what it smells like to me.
You won't own a computer, just a terminal.
You won't own software, just access to it.
its all a guise to build the foundation then pass it on to a surveillance state as SaaS, who benefits a lot of ai pattern recognition to link camera footage, internet usage, and a ton of other data points
There might.be a little of that going around as well, but the datacenters haven't actually been built even close to the scale claimed, and the racks in there are kinda useless at serving SaaS webpage stuff, too many GPUs to make it make sense financially.
Didn't we fight a cold war over this? The Soviets wanted a top down internet and it was more expensive and less capable
market research firm lol. get a real job.
To anyone who has imposter syndrome: Imagine being able to say shit like this and call it a career?
You can do it. I have faith in you.
Imagine being able to say shit like this successfully and earn enough to call it a career.
That skill is not very common.
"If a company isn't making as much money as quickly as it, and investors, thought it would" that's the sign, saved you the click.
But everyone knows that and those with money did not decide to sell so far. So, it's all bla-bla... Maybe it happens tomorrow, maybe in 4 years, maybe never with an intensity that will be remembered as a crash...
Exactly what I expected from Business insider..
I’m beginning to think they don’t actually have anyone on the inside at any businesses
Terrible headline. The AI bubble will definitely burst, but stocks being undervalued is not "exactly" (or even approximately) "how the dot-com bubble burst". The bubble refers to overinvestment by overly optimistic opportunists overestimating the market, and it burst when thousands startups that failed to make a profit ran out of venture capital at about the same time. This is what's going to burst the AI bubble - it's just a question of when. The stock value thing, as the article itself explains (kind of), is just a symptom that investors are starting to sense/fear this getting near.
Yeah, been hearing this for a year.
Starting to worry it's all... doomerism hype?
Nah.
We heard about the debt derivative crash coming from 2006. If you said it was coming people laughed at you and called you stupid, mostly Harvard grads.
Sure, some people heard about it in 2006. Not many, and even the people sounding alarms were called cranks up until the day after Lehman collapsed. However, right now a lot of social media is full of people basing the bubble's "any second now!" metrics on emotional AI-hate arguments, not real data points. I also thought we had crossed the line at some point, and that was 6+ months ago. Since then the Big 4 have been getting large contracts, which isn't exactly a sign of a hollow middle.
I'm sure we'll see in a couple years who was right, but I only see this as a fractional bubble where pieces fail individually, not the whole system as one.
When there’s a bubble, at first you hear “hmm this is weird maybe it’s a bubble”. Then more people start saying ,”yeah it looks like a bubble”. Then more people start analyzing how it IS a bubble. All the while big investors are like, “ I know it’s a bubble but right now I’m making bank, so…”. Finally, after those investors decide it’s been a good run, they cash out and the bubble truly starts bursting.
So right now everyone knows it’s a bubble. What we’re seeing is the big investors trying to squeeze every last billion out of it.
Finally, after those investors decide it’s been a good run, they cash out and the bubble truly starts bursting.
This time they wasted so much money that they're trying to foist the bad investments on retail investors with overblown valuations and IPOs before cashing out.
What nonsensical logic.
"I've been hearing this for a while so that must mean it's not true"
Ah yes, the absurdity of consistently inaccurate speculation being consistently inaccurate speculation.
Chicken Little vs. The Boy Who Cried Wolf.
Where's the flaw in the logic, again?
If even the goddamn BusinessInsider comes to this conclusion, I wonder why they don’t also realize that all stock market transactions work this way today. None of this has the slightest connection to the real world anymore. Stock prices are determined purely by how many billionaires—or rather, their concentrated capital—are betting on which companies. And here’s the key: They always win, because even with the most absurd business ideas, they can drive up the price, which only crashes after the super-rich have sold their shares.
This makes it very easy to understand why the dumbest people in the world never lose money, as long as they’re rich enough.
Humanity is footing the bill for this, and it’s now becoming very clear just how high that bill is.
