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Congress provided $7.5B for electric vehicle chargers. Built so far: Zero. (www.politico.com)
submitted 7 months ago by BombOmOm@lemmy.world to c/evs@lemmy.world
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[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 61 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

This is an incredibly lazy take from Politico. It's late so I'll just do a brain dump on things to consider. The last year has been very rocky for EV charging in the US.

  1. Tesla had, so far, outbuilt every other DCFC network combined and out-sold every other EV carmaker, combined. This put a lot of very weird tension on the process.
  2. Draft rulemaking from FWHA in 2022/early 2023 was only considering CCS as a funded connector.
  3. November 2022, Tesla threw a grenade, opened up their connector as NACS, and claimed it could support CCS signalling. Aptera joined as the second NACS adoptee so maybe NACS technically isn't proprietary since it's now on more than 1 brand? Realistically though, nobody cared.
  4. March 2023, FWHA's guidance drops. It standardizes CCS as the main connector to deploy, but optionally allows the deployment of "proprietary" connectors as long as the CCS requirement is met. By/around this point, some states like Texas and Washington decided they wanted to solicit bids for both CCS+NACS. Other states reasonably started this process only considering CCS.
  5. May 2023, Ford surprises everyone by being the first important not-Tesla carmaker to adopt NACS.
  6. In the background, several states were starting the process of planning locations and soliciting bids. CCS was pretty much still the primary consideration at this point when it came to figuring out equipment vendors.
  7. June, July, August rolls by. More carmakers switch to NACS.
  8. States are faced with having to figure out what to do with the bid process. Stick with the bid solicitation for CCS, or amend for CCS+NACS now that almost everyone's jumped over? Will the equipment vendors in some bids support NACS? Are they stuck on CCS? Is this even something some places are even aware is happening (lol)
  9. It's now Sept/Oct. The CCS rule is silly at this point because in 16 months, cars will start shipping with native NACS connectors, and this equipment is supposed to last 5+ years. Will all DCFC makers support a cable swap from CCS to NACS? Would a cable swap even be permitted with NEVI funds?

For much of this year we didn't have a solid answer about which connector was going to work, nor did we have much information about what the DCFC makers were going to do. We didn't really have a clear idea that cable swaps would be possible for a long while either.

For all the chaos above, the major slowness in this process is that some states are trying to plan for reasonably fair coverage in charger placement, and making sure they pick the correct places on travel corridors to invest NEVI funds in. A lot of work is needed to ensure that more than just the wealthy/populated areas would get chargers. For example, Virginia took several months just on this, and I appreciate it. I'd rather them take a few extra months to work out placement and consideration for supporting the general population than just the places with money.

I want to see this money create the best competitor against Tesla's Supercharger network, not rush to become the next Electrify America.

[-] mosiacmango@lemm.ee 15 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

Excellent explanation, but the article title is also bullshit because both Penn and ohio have started building chargers already in the last month or so, they just aren't finished. These two are in the lead because they had largely done the ground work you describe for EV charger rollouts. The money is doing exactly what it needs to do: give states the capitol to start work immediately. Most states are still planning, but the moneys there to actually make the plans a reality.

Based on the white House statements, no one expected this to immediately happen. They all planned for it to take a while to sort, but once its sorted, to move quickly. Turns out infastructure is hard to do competently, but when you put smart people in charge of it and fund them, it actually gets done.

People can say what they want to about Biden, but the motherfucker had been hiring good people to do good things.

[-] as97531@lemmy.world 3 points 6 months ago

Fun fact: Ohio already has its first NEVI station up and running.

https://www.plugshare.com/location/581134

[-] rockSlayer@lemmy.world 11 points 7 months ago

Were people actually expecting the construction to start immediately or something? There's absolutely wrenches being thrown at the process, and all of the planning and construction time on top of it all.

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 7 points 7 months ago

Were people actually expecting the construction to start immediately or something?

Especially right after COVID when equipment shortages were still a big issue! If these pundits wanted chargers available today, maybe they shouldn't have focused on churning out EV-skepticism for the better part of a decade.

Tesla's Supercharging network is practically the gold-standard of how fast deployments can be done, and even they need a couple months for each site. That timeframe is only possible after a decade of installations and spending hundreds of millions on process optimization. It's going to take some of these smaller firms some time to get the hang of it, and that's perfectly okay.

[-] drdabbles@lemmy.world 4 points 7 months ago

The plan all along was to complete everything by 2027, with construction starting in '24 and '25. Every state I've cared to look at has a published plan and timeline. 🤷‍♂️

[-] cogman@lemmy.world 2 points 7 months ago

It's going to be 90% planning and permitting. 10% construction. There's very little construction needed. (It may even be 99:1).

[-] drdabbles@lemmy.world 7 points 7 months ago

Crucially, the cable swap is a non-issue, because the chargers will all use the CCS communication protocol. NACS uses the J1772 pins for sensing and initiating charging, and CCS adds an extra communication layer which Tesla has built into their cars since mid-2019 or something when Europe switched to CCS Combo 2 as the EU standard.

I'm not personally a promoter of the NACS connector for lots of reasons nobody cares about, but I'm glad we've at least landed on the common communication protocol. If all these chargers started popping up in 2024 with CCS Combo 1 connectors, I wonder how many of these other brands would actually migrate to the NACS wand versus just continuing on with Combo 1 forever. I'm not convinced any of them really care either, and it's just a matter of convenience for customers. Without the necessity to rely on Tesla's charging network, that convenience sort of evaporates. Add in an adapter for NACS to CCS, and I think the whole issue goes away.

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 2 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

Yup, as the year progressed with further press releases it became a non-issue. However, for several months it was a question mark if most DCFC vendors would support this.

As far as NACS, effectively every carmaker has switched from CCS and the major DCFC vendors announced support for it (two major ones being ABB and Signet).

I guess if a bespoke dcfc manufacturer/operator kept going with CCS, they can, but it’d be a waste of money as we go from ~65% of EVs sold today use NACS to ~98% sold in 2025 (making the silly stretch assumption that sales ratio between carmakers remains relatively the same)

[-] drdabbles@lemmy.world 1 points 7 months ago

They haven't switched yet, though. And that's one of the points I'm making. They have said they're switching in 2025. To me, that sounded a lot like they were waiting to see what happened with chargers in US and Canada. Announcing charger support for it is also not a meaningful announcement since you really only need to change the cable end. It's like saying I now support winter boots. I didn't change my feet, so it's not a meaningful statement.

The number of EVs sold isn't an argument that's going to sway me. As I've said, I have technical reasons I don't like the NACS connector. If everyone sticks to the current announced plan, then we get DCFC with both connectors and nobody really cares. But if the charger manufacturers and EV manufacturers decide to drop NACS as a whole, I don't think anybody will know or care in 3-4 years time outside of Tesla owners that need an adapter to access other brands chargers.

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 3 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

I think that viewpoint is naively optimistic for CCS-1. Nearly everyone's media announcement explicitly states that they are definitively adopting NACS as their charging connector for their fleet starting in 2025. If CCS-1 connector isn't dead, it's shaping up to be like CHAdeMO.

If you don't believe me: Ford, GM, Hyundai, Kia, Polestar, Volvo, Rivian, Mercedes, BMW, Mini, and Rolls-Royce, Honda, and Fisker

The only announcements that weren't fully definitive in bringing this to every vehicle are from Toyota, Subaru, and Nissan. Toyota's announcement (and is comparable to Subaru) is left at:

Toyota will incorporate the NACS ports into certain Toyota and Lexus BEVs starting in 2025

And Nissan is for sure doing it on their Ariya but left the rest ambiguous.

[-] drdabbles@lemmy.world 0 points 7 months ago

I clearly said they all announced it was happening in 2025, so obviously linking to their announcements isn't really going to change anything.

The thing they are doing is trying to equip their cars with the port for the chargers that their customer will use. What I'm saying is if the NACS adoption doesn't take off my charger manufacturers, then auto manufacturers have no incentive to adopt it either. That's the remaining question mark. Regardless, Combo 1 connectors are going to be on those chargers because that's what every other brand has on their cars.

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 2 points 7 months ago

I'm wanting to understand what you're trying to say but I'm... confused.

I clearly said they all announced it was happening in 2025, so obviously linking to their announcements isn’t really going to change anything.

My understanding of your statement (specifically the bolded section) sounded like you were skeptical that carmakers will commit to their NACS plans.

They haven’t switched yet, though. And that’s one of the points I’m making. They have said they’re switching in 2025. To me, that sounded a lot like they were waiting to see what happened with chargers in US and Canada.

I guess if it was just Ford and Ford alone, I could see one company backing out, but not several entities.

Secondly,

What I’m saying is if the NACS adoption doesn’t take off my charger manufacturers, then auto manufacturers have no incentive to adopt it either. That’s the remaining question mark.

Each announcement has explicitly said they're doing this to gain access to the Supercharger network.

In less than a year we're going to see NACS connectors on 2025 models. The ink has dried on contracts. Engineers are likely nearly finished with changes needed to integrate and are testing if not already.

Going back to CCS would be incredibly unlikely. There is no question about it anymore unless they want to figure out a way to justify to car buyers and investors about their decision to switch connectors then un-switch.

[-] drdabbles@lemmy.world -1 points 7 months ago

I guess if it was just Ford and Ford alone, I could see one company backing out, but not several entities.

Consider why these companies have decided to transition to an NACS port. Because they want their customers to gain access to chargers that exist, and those chargers are operated by Tesla. Now, imagine that in 2024 we start seeing NEVI funded chargers installed around the country, and those chargers have fewer NACS connectors than CCS Combo, or they have no NACS connectors. What do you think the auto manufacturers would do? They haven't signed any kind of contract requiring they use NACS, they've simply announced that they plan to in 2025.

In other words, if there's no convenience improvement to deploying NACS ports because new charger sites don't have a majority of NACS connectors, then they wouldn't do it. They'd simply keep equipping vehicles with Combo 1 ports.

Each announcement has explicitly said they’re doing this to gain access to the Supercharger network.

Yes. Because today that network is by far the largest in the US, and almost certainly in Canada. But the US is funding deployment of new chargers every 50 miles, so you can see where brands other than Tesla might outnumber Tesla over the next few years.

The ink has dried on contracts.

Buying new plastic bits from an injection molding company doesn't require an insane lead time, and the existence of contracts really isn't meaningful in any way. There is almost guaranteed to be language in supplier contracts that allows both parties to back out as long as they keep a dollar spend level or pay a small penalty. This kind of thing happens all the time during qualification and testing.

Going back to CCS would be incredibly unlikely.

Why? If there was a compelling reason to not use NACS, why would anybody continue charging ahead?

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 1 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Consider why these companies have decided to transition to an NACS port. Because they want their customers to gain access to chargers that exist, and those chargers are operated by Tesla.

Agreed. I don't think this was a technical decision at all, it was strictly to get access to the Supercharger network.

Now, imagine that in 2024 we start seeing NEVI funded chargers installed around the country, and those chargers have fewer NACS connectors than CCS Combo, or they have no NACS connectors. What do you think the auto manufacturers would do? They haven’t signed any kind of contract requiring they use NACS, they’ve simply announced that they plan to in 2025.

Tesla is basically dropping 1.5 sites a day at their current pace, and it's been gradually increasing over time. They'll be out-pacing the collective NEVI deployment for a while. Plus, each Supercharger site has 8+ (and now, more commonly, 12/16+, with a few 20-30+) stalls. Tesla's Supercharger network is so far ahead, nobody else has to matter. NEVI only requires 4-stall sites, I'd bet almost anything that's what we're going to see for a while.

Yeah, there's probably no contract but why wait for others to catch up when they can get immediate results by swapping a plug and reworking a bit of the electrical system?

Yes. Because today that network is by far the largest in the US, and almost certainly in Canada. But the US is funding deployment of new chargers every 50 miles, so you can see where brands other than Tesla might outnumber Tesla over the next few years.

I seriously doubt this will happen in the next 2-4 years at the clip Tesla has been dropping chargers. Go look at the Under Construction list of Tesla chargers: https://supercharge.info/map. There's practically a full-multiple-states-worth of NEVI deployments coming online from Tesla just in the next few months alone.

Buying new plastic bits from an injection molding company doesn’t require an insane lead time, and the existence of contracts really isn’t meaningful in any way. There is almost guaranteed to be language in supplier contracts that allows both parties to back out as long as they keep a dollar spend level or pay a small penalty. This kind of thing happens all the time during qualification and testing.

Sure but we're 8-9 months from cars rolling off the assembly line, and Farley and Barra have been very vocal about their move to NACS, including relying on it in investor calls w/r/t charging.

Why? If there was a compelling reason to not use NACS, why would anybody continue charging ahead?

There is no compelling reason. Car makers gain access to a network that's at least as large as everyone else combined, with much higher stall-count per site, at a much greater reliability, and greater number of higher power charging stalls. Tesla's Supercharger network isn't a hypothetical "this could get better", they've been in the "they are better" camp. NACS+Supercharger is a guaranteed "win" and CCS is, at best, a story of optimism.

Realistically, most people just don't care about the CCS/NACS debate. Ford/GM/etc. get the PR hall-pass to claim CCS was the reason everything was bad, people then see Superchargers "just work", take that statement at face value, and move on.

I'm with you on that it really sucks a single company can steamroll the industry like this. It sets a scary precedent and puts charging in a very vulnerable spot for a while. IMO anyone who doesn't see that there's a pretty substantial risk to this isn't thinking critically.

Though, if Tesla tried to pull any funny business I'd bet they wouldn't get very far considering they've explicitly granted anyone using the SAE standard a royalty-free license to the patent.

[-] drdabbles@lemmy.world 1 points 6 months ago

They’ll be out-pacing the collective NEVI deployment for a while.

I disagree. They've added 21 in the past year in the US, so let's call it 2 per month on average for 2023. The plan for several states I'm interested in will outpace that immediately. I don't know where you got 1.5 sites per day, but that's absolutely not the case in any way. It's not even 1.5 stalls per day, instead it's 0.624 stalls per day. Can you tell me where you got that number from, because 1.5 sites per day would be 548 sites per year and with an average of 10 stalls per site they've installed this past year that's 5479 stalls. Back of the envelope math should have sounded wrong to you.

I seriously doubt this will happen in the next 2-4 years at the clip Tesla has been dropping chargers.

Again, your Tesla number is extremely wrong. You should go back to the supercharge.info site, go to the changes list, and switch to "add". Lots of Tesla sites have been in planning and permitting for years, and to be frank until something Tesla says actually exists in the world it's not worth much.

Sure but we’re 8-9 months from cars rolling off the assembly line

Maybe.

There is no compelling reason.

There's a couple I can think of off the top of my head. Can you not?

greater reliability

You're comparing to existing EA chargers, which we know isn't the real comparison at hand here.

Realistically, most people just don’t care about the CCS/NACS debate.

Right, which is why I specifically didn't have it. So let's not start it, because there's no debate to be had. One is superior to the other, and it isn't NACS. That's entirely separate from the conversation being had right now.

claim CCS was the reason everything was bad

Nope. Charger reliability has nothing to do with the connector, stop here. Do not pass go. It was the chargers, not the connectors. The connector decision was one of convenience because Tesla has a reliable network when used with a Tesla.

What I'm suggesting here is that companies are prepared to use the NACS connector, as published by SAE. They announced this because Tesla's network exists now and we didn't know what was going to happen with NEVI funds. Now most of those funds have been allocated (if not all?), and since all of those sites are going to get Combo 1 connectors as well as NACS, it's conceivable to me that they announced NACS to hype things up for a while, and the option to pull out is always there. They have zero requirement to use NACS on either chargers or vehicles, they simply may choose to. There's been quite a swing in perception of supporting a certain CEO in the past 6 months that might not be as appealing to a lot of people, so it may not be the selling point it would have.

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 1 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Your stance just isn’t grounded in data or evidence, and is at best an emotional appeal for CCS instead of coming to terms that the data simply doesn’t give CCS any true advantage.

Where do you see they only added 21 in the past year? This number aligns closely to magic dock conversions not the total NACS compatible deployments.

Supercharger V3/V4 supports the CCS protocol. This is the number each car maker is citing when they say 12000 (earlier this year). V3 has been deployed for a couple years now.

Anyways, here’s my sources:

There are literally at least a couple hundred threads of people posting construction updates started this year (and a sanity spot check suggests at least several of these are completed)

And to be very clear, this is 250kW DCFC stations.

And I have my personal experience that suggests a fast deployment: I live outside of DC and have regularly driven from around from Richmond to Baltimore this year. I have seen 7-8 come up alone:

  • Tysons Corner, VA - I go to the mall this is at from time to time
  • the one south of Fredericksburg on Jefferson Davis Highway - friend lives nearby and we’re both electrical nerds so we went to check it out
  • District Heights, MD - noticed as it popped up as a charging stop
  • Cumberland, MD - pretty drive
  • Another Leesburg, VA charger - I’m in this area a couple times a year
  • Another Reston, VA charger - I’m in this area a couple times a year
  • Another Stafford, VA charger - Visiting a friend who’s just off this road a few times a year
  • Another Gaithersburg, MD charger - Another person I see about once a year

When my car shows a new red blip for a charger, I get curious if I’m in the area.

I am seeing more than 5 other threads with new chargers started and finished this year on TMC.

To clear something up, I never said the connector itself was more reliable. I’m saying the car makers are probably going to claim that for sales to people who probably heard charging is hard or something.

You’re welcome to tag me in 2-3 years if CCS ends up being chosen over NACS again and I’ll happily concede, but I just don’t see it happening.

[-] drdabbles@lemmy.world 1 points 6 months ago

Where do you see they only added 21 in the past year?

I told you exactly how to find it on the supercharge.info site in my previous post.

Slide 6 tips your hand, so thank you for commenting about this. You just posted the GLOBAL number, not the US number. NACS is US only, NEVI funds are US only. Pretty important detail, that one.

Tyson's corner has been in planning stages since those shitty 208v destination chargers were installed, so I'm glad they finally did something. Is it actually open now? Took them long enough on that one.

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 0 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

My guy…

“Add” and “Update” are the action Supercharge.info performs on a database record for a charging site.

“Add” is used when they insert a new site into their DB for the first time. Most of the time it’ll be added at Permit or Construction, but sometimes the community misses chargers under construction entirely and they get added as they open.

“Update” is used when Supercharge.info updates the status of a site. For example, when someone finds construction has started on a site previously marked as “Permit”, an Update entry is added as they change the site status to “Construction”.

21 sites on Supercharge were “surprises” that nobody reported a permit for or reported as under construction.

Now that I’ve helped you use the site, go back and add up lol

And no, I’m not talking about the destination chargers. I haven’t counted any destination chargers in my counts for anything. They operate as a completely separate group. These are the 16 or whatever Superchargers behind Bloomingdale’s.

[-] drdabbles@lemmy.world 0 points 6 months ago

“Add” is used when they insert a new site into their DB for the first time.

Yes, it turns out you don't need to mansplain CRUD to me, nor owning and using a Tesla, because I'm personally familiar with both.

Since "update" can mean changed status in any direction it's the least reasonable metric to use, because you'll also capture closed, permanently closed, permitted, and under construction status updates.

You also don't have to mansplain the site since I've been using it longer than you've been a Tesla fan. After all, you are the one citing Tesla's Quarterly report's global number.

And no, I’m not talking about the destination chargers

You keep clearly demonstrating that you aren't reading what I'm writing. And you seem to think you're telling me something even though you've very obviously got things supremely wrong. Again, global figure as one example and now you think I'm talking about Tesla adding destination chargers when what I very clearly said was that the SUPERCHARGER SITE has been planned every since they installed that shitty destination charger.

Do read the entirety of what I've written if you're going to try to argue against it. This is like for fourth or fifth time you've done this.

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 0 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Yes, it turns out you don’t need to mansplain CRUD to me, nor owning and using a Tesla, because I’m personally familiar with both.

Here's the thing, I was accused of screwing up my numbers up by a factor of ~20. At that scale, one of our numbers are wildly off. I pointed out how your method is significantly inaccurate and why by explaining how your filter is incorrect. I'm not sure what you want me to do about this.

Since “update” can mean changed status in any direction it’s the least reasonable metric to use, because you’ll also capture closed, permanently closed, permitted, and under construction status updates.

Given the data on their site doesn't show specifically-US-chargers over time, yes, the numbers I have are rough estimates. If we want exact counts of the current number of Superchargers, there's the /maps URL which shows the current total of a given search criteria.

Let's compare this to the technically flawed mechanism I used, where I just counted up: (Count of Transitions to Open) + (Count of entries added as Open).

Here's the real count: https://supercharge.info/map, Set Country to USA, status to "Open": 2082 sites

And my inaccurate method's count: https://supercharge.info/changes, Set Country to USA, status to "Open": 2196 sites

That is a difference of 114 across all open chargers, regardless of deployment date. This is an error of 5.2%, I'd say that's pretty darn good for an internet debate. It at least qualifies for a "Mostly True" on Politifact.

Now tell me why it is unreasonable to correlate this number with the total number of North American chargers. There are only ~250 Superchargers in Mexico/Canada. Practically 90% of their North American deployment is in the US.

In the absolute worst case that Tesla deployed all of their Canada/Mexico chargers this year, I'd still be off by... 15%?

With my claim that they've dropped 400-ish chargers, who cares about even a 15% error? My point still stands, Tesla is dropping chargers and charging sites faster than everyone else.

You also don’t have to mansplain the site since I’ve been using it longer than you’ve been a Tesla fan. After all, you are the one citing Tesla’s Quarterly report’s global number.

I'm stating that your usage of the site is incorrect and your understanding of how to query the site is fundamentally flawed. Sorry?

You keep clearly demonstrating that you aren’t reading what I’m writing. And you seem to think you’re telling me something even though you’ve very obviously got things supremely wrong. Again, global figure as one example and now you think I’m talking about Tesla adding destination chargers when what I very clearly said was that the SUPERCHARGER SITE has been planned every since they installed that shitty destination charger.

OK, you're right. I did respond carelessly to your last statement here. To be completely honest though, I'm having a difficult time taking you seriously. You aren't citing anything nor do you acknowledge your errors as they're called out. You've only responded with baseless accusations that I'm grossly incorrect or denial that Tesla can deploy chargers.

I've showed my method and suggested evidence as to why my number is at least reasonable.

I can't help that you're unwilling to admit errors in an internet forum thread.

[-] jennwiththesea@lemmy.world 3 points 7 months ago

This is why I come to the comments. Thanks for this explainer!

[-] LowtierComputer@lemmy.world 17 points 7 months ago

They should definitely rush to spend 7bn so that the job is done poorly and everybody complains more about the ineffectiveness of our government. Especially with the changes in charging connection standards in the US.

[-] MindSkipperBro12@lemmy.world 1 points 7 months ago

Hasn’t it been over two years?

[-] Dozzi92@lemmy.world 3 points 7 months ago

I'm not clear how the money was allocated. Is it for local governments or federal agencies to build them? It says along highways, and so I suppose it's for agencies, but I just wonder if the funds aren't going to end up as part of some bigger projects. And I also wonder if they're not using it as grants to developers. I dunno. But these things take time.

That all being said, it's definitely easy to see how certain interested parties might try to stifle this development.

[-] cosmic_slate@dmv.social 7 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

NEVI funds are provided to each state (+DC+Puerto Rico), and (my understanding is that) each state is free to decide the process on how to allocate the funds as long as the funds meet the NEVI guidelines.

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/02/28/2023-03500/national-electric-vehicle-infrastructure-standards-and-requirements

[-] as97531@lemmy.world 1 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

This is correct. The approach some states took (like Ohio) was getting stations placed on pre-existing AFCs (alternative fuel corridors) in order to accelerate the NEVI approval process since placing chargers on a highway not already designated as an AFC would require that road to be recognized as an AFC before any funds would be approved for that particular round of funding. This allowed states like Ohio to side-step some delays and red tape in the beginning so they could get to building stations more quickly and focus on filling out the gaps later.

Source: Participated in some of the NEVI meetings for my state.

this post was submitted on 10 Dec 2023
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