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Why $700 could be a "death sentence" for the Steam Machine (arstechnica.com)

submitted 3 days ago by Fubarberry@sopuli.xyz to c/steamdeck@sopuli.xyz

62 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Article discusses the effect of rising hardware prices on the deck.

Some highlights:

How much worse has the pricing situation gotten for Valve since November? Superdata Research founder and SuperJoost newsletter author Joost van Dreunen suggested that the 512GB Steam Machine model would probably run $50 to $75 more than he expected when the Steam Machine was announced, and to expect a price “potentially $100+ above target” for the high-end 2TB model. That would mean a $599 to $629 price at the low-end and $849 to $899 for the high-end model, in his estimation.

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter agreed that, even with the additional component costs, Valve would likely “try to get it out at $599 or so for the 512GB version,” A starting price higher than that would mean “abysmal” sales, he added. “I think $700 is a death sentence and $1,000 is unsellable.”

I'd recommend reading the article though, it has a lot more of value than just those quotes. It goes on to talk about how the price increases will likely hurt valve more than traditional console makers, and how these increases will affect sales.

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[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Here's a way to think of it:

It's a mini-pc.

But a bit bigger.

So... yeah, even if it is expensive by console pricing standards... $600 to $1000 is actually a pretty reasonable range for comparably powerful mini-pcs.

Look up like NUCBoxes or Minisforum miniPCs.

The runor that MooresLawIsDead was initially running with was that the actual custom chip they are using was originally slated to be used in something like a new variant of a MicroSlop Surface tablet.

AMD fabbed a bunch, MicroSlop bailed on the idea, leaving AMD with a bunch of weird custom chips they don't know wtf to do with.

Valve then goes to AMD, begins to uh, think with portals, or whatever.

[–] Batmorous@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Also to get access to using it as a PC fully, PC Games, Way More Apps, and mod support is more than worth it

Its basically Steam Deck in a different way

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 13 hours ago) (1 children)

Yes, that's all true.

It is not just a console, it is a full-on PC.

Run your own home media mode, browse the web, make stuff in Blender, write and compile code, etc, I do all of that regularly with my docked Steam Deck.

But I went with Mini PC rather than Steam Deck for comparison because, though it very much literally is a Steam Deck 3.0, in a lot of ways... I think its closer to a mini PC than anything else.

MiniPCs are basically small boxes often comparable to, I dunno, a large jar of pickles, in size. They... also do not have the functionality of a gamepad controller, or built in screen, as actual physical parts of them.

And they basically always have integrated cpu+mobo, RAM is usually laptop SODIMM form factor, and then either the cpu they use is actually an apu, or an npu, as opposed to laptops often having a discrete but laptop sized gpu, or full-on pcs typically having full-on gpus.

Or, its becoming more common for a mini-pc to juat be designed with either an oculink port, or a usb 4.0/tbunderbolt port, with the idea being that its a decent general purpose work pc in its own, and if you want to game on it (or do some other kind of more intensive work like video editing/rendering, complex 3d model creation, etc), you get an eGPU cradle, stick a power supply and desktop GPU in it, and then connect it to the miniPC, which can then use that GPU nearly as efficiently as if it were just directly plugged into it.

[–] Batmorous@lemmy.world 2 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago) (1 children)

That's true didn't even think of all those use cases and good specs very beneficial indeed. Thanks for that a lot to think about

For fun I would love somebody have it be their daily driver for the day at work and then they go "alright I'm heading home" then plug it in at home to game

Maybe that one 3rd party company that made the screen that is attached to top of Xbox Series X|S that opens and closes. Can make one for Steam Machine to be able to use it anywhere. Just have to plug it into an outlet

Edit: Also wonder if they would ever do next Steam Deck in future to be a mini pc and Steam Machine in future to be a full-blown upper-end pc performance-wise

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

Thanks for that a lot to think about

Happy to have an infodump/perspective appreciated, thank you!

I should note that the Steam Machine unfortunately does not appear to be designed with an eGPU in mind.

(Err, well, thats kinda sorta not true. The way a Steam Machine and Steam Frame, the VR headset work together... well the Steam Frame has an ARM, cellphone stype chip, built into it, and it can run less intense games just on its own. So, it is arguably technically the case that... that is a kind of wirelessly connected sort of eGPU for the Steam Machine... or the Steam Machine is a wirelessly connected sort of eGPU for the Steam Frame.)

It may be possible to... somewhat substantially hardware modify the Steam Machine, to get something like a physically connected eGPU working, people did figure out a kind of 'janky but does technically work' way to do that with a Steam Deck...

But basically, we'll have to wait for the thing itself, or detailed schematics of it to come out, to see if that's possible with a Steam Machine.

Alot of Steam Deck type devices, not made by Valve, other handheld-pcs (have controller and screen built in, vs mini-pc which is basically a small box or closer to the size and shape of a console), they do have usb4/thunderbolt ports that more easily support an eGPU set up... but they tend to be significantly more expensive.

So yeah, we shall see!

Its very unfortunate that the AI/RAM-pocalypse is happening at the exact same time that... well what could potentially be a bit of a revolution in the entire concept how to build a pc/gaming machine seems to be possible.

It may be the case that it ends up making more sense to have a new paradigm where you just have the cpu+ram+mobo+minor integrated gfx as one physical thing, and then some kind of an eGPU as another thing, and treat them as two modular components of a total system.

[–] melfie@lemy.lol 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Back in November, the SM announcement inspired me to get an off-brand mini gaming PC with a 8745HS and 16GB DDR5 / 512GB SSD for a little less than $400. That machine today is now $500. Its 780M is about double the graphical power of the Deck, so assuming pricing is proportional to the GPU, the SM would’ve been like $499 in November and $599 at today’s prices.

Small sample size and perhaps invalid assumptions, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s correct. Then again, the RTX 5080 I was also looking at the time for $1000 is now $1500.

[–] TemplaerDude@sh.itjust.works 18 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I have been, since day fucking one, befuddled by how people think this thing is going to be anything less than $700, it just does not add up to me.

[–] Fubarberry@sopuli.xyz 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

People are looking at the price of the steam decks and non-pro versions of consoles.

[–] Mesophar@pawb.social 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Well, they should be looking at low to mid range modern gaming laptops and minimum the pro versions of consoles

[–] Batmorous@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

What would be a good price range to compare it for low to mid range modern gaming laptops?

[–] Mesophar@pawb.social 1 points 23 hours ago

$650-1200 USD

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 44 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (5 children)

Michael Pachter is, was, and always will be a complete idiot. Back in the PS2 era he stated that it was no big deal if Sony sold out in North America, they could just move units over from Europe... ignoring the fact that both the video and electricity standards don't match.

$700 isn't a "death sentence", know how we know this?

ROG Xbox Ally X - $1000
PS5 Pro - $750
Xbox Series X - $650
ROG Xbox Ally - $600
PS5 - $550
Steam Deck - $550
Xbox Series S - $450

If Valve REALLY wanted to break people's brains, they would release a "Supply your own RAM and storage" version for $399.

[–] Quetzalcutlass@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Michael Pachter being comically wrong and out of touch was a running joke at Ars Technica and gamesindustry.biz back in the day. He's the Jim Cramer of industry analysts.

[–] jjlinux@lemmy.zip 1 points 1 day ago

I'm game for the barebones version. As a matter of fact, that's what I'm hoping they do, otherwise, I don't think I'll get a Steam Machine.

[–] olafurp@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

Honestly, if they make it with upgradable RAM, M2 SSD and GPU you're essentially buying 1 and getting gen 2 and 3 for 50% off.

[–] jnod4@lemmy.ca 10 points 2 days ago

€399 I'm sold for a kit without ram or ssd

[–] YiddishMcSquidish@lemmy.today 11 points 2 days ago

The steam NUC

[–] network_switch@lemmy.ml 51 points 3 days ago (2 children)

A an 8GB RX 7600 is around $300. Add everything else and $700 sounds about right. May not sell high volumes but there's got to be dozens of manufacturers making minipcs. It's still a full on computer. It's be a good value workstation. My gaming PC is my photo and video editor

[–] marlowe221@lemmy.world 18 points 2 days ago

Yeah… $700 sounds totally reasonable to me. Do I wish it were cheaper? Sure! I would love for it to be accessible to more people.

But $700 seems very reasonable for the hardware being offered.

[–] femtek@lemmy.blahaj.zone 11 points 3 days ago

If it's 700 I'll wait for a few months of reviews, 500 I'll preorder it. I do want to replace my Xbox.

[–] Flamekebab@piefed.social 5 points 2 days ago (2 children)

They can set the asking price to whatever they want but I have zero interest in the "why" in terms of a high price, which for me is anything over about £450. Anything more than that and it simply isn't appealing to me. I don't care whether that's reasonable or not in terms of their costs. My wallet cannot in any form justify anything more on what is primarily a toy. It's one of the reasons I don't have a current gen console but have had at least one from each generation going back to the mid 1990s.

If you ask more than I'm willing to spend, no sale. Sorry, guys.

[–] Bazoogle@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

What is life if you aren't spending some of it on stuff you enjoy doing? Adults should be able to spend large amounts of money on stuff that is primarily a toy if they enjoy that toy. I get it if you're saying you literally cannot afford to eat and buy that expensive of a toy, but for most people saving their pennies for long enough warrants buying an expensive toy. It's also fine if you prefer spending your money on experiences rather than things, but saying it's an invalid purchase because it's a toy is pretty silly.

[–] Flamekebab@piefed.social 2 points 1 day ago

but saying it’s an invalid purchase because it’s a toy is pretty silly.

It would be pretty silly to say that, wouldn't it? Luckily it's not something I said.

What is life if you aren’t spending some of it on stuff you enjoy doing?

Framing it as depriving myself is an interesting approach, but as much of an egotist as I am, the equation is a smidge more complicated than that. Because I don't spend money on toys it was not a source of stress when both my wife and I needed some dental work done last month. Sure, I'd like to have fun, but I'd also prefer not to stress about money when big expenses pop up. I spend a bit on myself here and there but I remember the '90s and compared to then I am absolutely drowning in entertainment. It's truly magical.

...but that means that if an entertainment experience of some kind is priced higher than a certain point then I'm just not that fussed passing on it. My Steam Deck has plenty of life left in it yet!

[–] flyby@lemmy.zip 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Valve also said they are not willing to sell hardware at a loss so there is that

[–] Flamekebab@piefed.social 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

As I said, how they arrive at the price isn't something I care about. They could be making a loss or a killing and it'd be all the same to me.

[–] user_6282638282@sopuli.xyz 40 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (3 children)

I really don't understand the hand-wringing about the cost. I see comments all the time about how it's "DOA" at some price or another and it strikes me as someone projecting their own preferences and values, including the "analyst" quoted in the article.

As an outside observer you don't know a) Valve's goals; b) almost anyone else's preferences and values.

I say this as someone who enjoys gaming, won't ever buy a console and won't ever build a gaming rig. This product is perfect for me and I'd have to feel like Valve were purposely screwing me to not buy it. I may be a minority but I can't be alone.

[–] Unleaded8163@fedia.io 16 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Yeah, you're absolutely right. I'm in a slightly different demographic, but am still really interested in the steam machine. I'd be happy building my own gaming rig, but:

Pricing out all that stuff, ordering it, building it is a lot of work, I'd want to see some benefit for that work,
After pricing it all out, maybe I look at a steam machine and decide it's a better deal.

Realistically, steam machines, consoles, and custom gaming rigs are all approximately the same hardware and the same market. If the price of the steam machine is going up, so is its competition.

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[–] Hawk@lemmy.dbzer0.com 19 points 2 days ago (1 children)

It's not a console, stop expecting console prices. A $1000 price point wouldn't even surprise me.

[–] Bakkoda@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 days ago

That's actually what i figured it would be. I'm 42 and this will be my first ever premade since i was old enough to build my own.

[–] 58008@lemmy.world 12 points 2 days ago (2 children)

We expected it to be more than that, actually. If it's $700, that's pretty good. It's not a Switch. It's a prebuilt gaming PC in a tiny form factor. Building a gaming PC today with the same horsepower would probably set you back a lot more than that, and you'll also have a giant tower taking up space.

It's not for me, but I can think of at least 3 people in my family who would get a lot of value out of it at that price point. No PC-building headaches, no researching every bit of hardware and comparing prices and performance, no tedious planning of the cooling layout, no thermal paste, no separate warranties and RMA headaches for every individual component, no Windows bullshit, not needing an entire corner of the room just for the tower, perfect for the living room, driver and software updates that apply to and work for every customer, I could go on. I don't see any downside for the average gamer. Sure, if you're an FPS penny pincher who simply has to OC and have the best of the best and latest hardware, it'll not appeal to you. But that's a minority of gamers.

$700 is a dream. $1,000 is reasonable in the current climate I guess, but pushing it a little. $1,500 would be unfortunate, but it really depends on what extra value the system comes with from Valve. I wanna know their RMA and warranty plans. If they're anything north of "Kafkaesque", which is how it is with virtually every other hardware manufacturer/reseller, the extra money might actually be worth it, for one's mental health. If they send out a replacement unit before you have to return a defective one, for example, that would be enough to justify a little more cost, but that's coming from someone with a long and storied history of nightmarish, abusive RMA practices. I'd suck a dog's dirty dick to not have to go through that shit again.

[–] brucethemoose@lemmy.world 6 points 2 days ago

Yeah.

My instant reaction was "$700? It'd be a miracle if Valve hits that. What's Ars thinking?"

[–] captainlezbian@lemmy.world 3 points 2 days ago

Yeah at 700 I'd probably buy one once my wife and I have permanent employment. It would make it a great htpc/game console

[–] leftzero@lemmy.dbzer0.com 14 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)

It's basically a gaming laptop.

Taking out the screen, the windows license, and some of the margin since Valve will make it back with game sales, $1,000 was the minimum expectable price before RAM got pulled into the “AI” bubble.

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[–] Ulrich@feddit.org 16 points 3 days ago (2 children)

“I think Valve was hoping for a much lower price and that the component issue would be short-term,” Cole said. “Obviously it is looking more like a long-term issue.”

I think we all knew this would be a long term issue.

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[–] doublah@sopuli.xyz 7 points 2 days ago

As long as it's comparable price or cheaper than a pre-built of similar specs or building a similar build yourself, they'll be a market for it. There's always people looking to get into PC gaming and existing PC gamers who want their Steam library in a console form factor.

[–] Kolanaki@pawb.social 10 points 3 days ago (5 children)

With all the revenue from Steam, how much of a loss could they afford to go all in on with these? Do they care about profit or shifting the market from Windows to Linux (or, hell, just giving the finger to Microslop)?

[–] mnemonicmonkeys@sh.itjust.works 21 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

The problem is that these are computers. If they're too cheap, companies will buy them in bulk, slap windows on them, and use them for office PCs. And if they're sold at a loss, that then turns into a huge loss

[–] pory@lemmy.world 0 points 1 day ago

Valve could prevent this by doing it like the Steam Deck and requiring an x year old Steam account with at least y game purchases on it to be allowed to order one. Businesses aren't going to grab secondhand consumer hardware to save a buck, and even if they are the majority of Machine buyers wouldn't be looking to sell (and the margin necessary to get someone to effectively put the price of a Machine on layaway then ship it to some business and pay taxes twice will probably erase any gains the company would possibly see from using Steam Machines instead of Optiplexes)

[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 14 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

Valve has said repeatedly they won't subsidize it heavily because it's more of a generic desktop than the deck was. A low subsidized price could attract buyers that wouldn't spend money on games (ie. using for office machines)

[–] Ulrich@feddit.org 10 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Exactly. And we saw people doing that with the Stream Deck. Disney was using it to control their robots. Ukraine was using them to control IRL turrets. That's just what we know of.

[–] DScratch@sh.itjust.works 12 points 3 days ago (4 children)

They would instantly catch an anti-trust case from Epic for trying to use their dominant software position to undercut hardware manufacturers and take control of both gaming hardware and software.

[–] FishFace@piefed.social 12 points 3 days ago

Do they think valve's lawyers are not as good as Nintendo's or something?

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[–] GenosseFlosse@feddit.org 7 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Will the steam box have slots for ram or SSD so the user can upgrade the hardware later?

[–] Fubarberry@sopuli.xyz 8 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

The m.2 SSD is easily accessible, it comes with a 2230 m.2 (same size as the Steam Deck), but has room to install a full size 2280 m.2. It only has room for 1 though, so while you can upgrade to a larger size you can't add a second. Swapping out the m.2 will require cloning your drive or reinstalling SteamOS to the new drive.

There's also a high speed microSD slot for even easier space upgrades, and microSDs with games can be swapped directly between the Deck and Machine.

For RAM, it uses laptop DDR5. It is user upgradable, but isn't as easy to access as the m.2 drive is.

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