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Didn't Elon say that autonomous driving was a "solved problem"?
This doesn't seem that solved to me...
Yeah, they are still working on it...
The new data comes as Tesla is removing human safety monitors from its driverless taxi fleet.
Works out if avoid killing people is not one of his goals.
Yes, he also said we would have manned missions to mars by 2024.
and traffic tunnels, and vacuum tube trains and solar tiles, and the roadster, and electric semi trucks, and implantable chips...
What does he care about deaths?
I'll take him seriously when he takes an autonomous cab from lower to upper Manhattan.
Lol is that the real logo? So terminally cringe
I wonder how it stacks up versus those waymo cars because I would not be surprised if the Tesla ones probably also perform worse when stacked up against competitors
I imagine it's meant to look cyberpunk or whatever. But it just looks like something a teenager would scratch into a school desk
It's the same (or very similar) styling they used for the Cybertruck badging.
I’m curious what the stats are for Teslas driven by people as well. Lately every time I walk by them (on a busy urban street) I see their occupants staring at their phones they can’t fucking connect to it or the over-the-top TV-style flatscreen in the fucking dash.
I am 100% sure Tesla drivers have above average accident rates. Because their drive assist systems are buggy, yet people rely on them.
Tesla drivers have above average accident rates
because of the distracting screen user interface. Highest crash rates of any car manufacturer. Which is why they are expensive to insure.
Tesla releases some misleading stats that compare accidents vs other cars vs teslas that have their driving assistance systems on, and while the comparison to other cars isn't great since it's kind if apples to oranges, it's pretty clear that there are less accidents with their systems turned on than off on their own cars.
Edit: major accidents anyway. It doesn't track fender bender type things. I think the air bag needs to have deployed.
Edit: just to add another thought. The people that abuse the automated systems are probably the same people who would be breaking rules of the road anyway. So those people are causing accidents with the automated systems turned on, but maybe they would have been anyway. At the extreme end you have those people using it while drunk. I'm pretty sure they would have driven drunk anyway, or have driven drunk before.
The people that abuse the automated systems are probably the same people who would be breaking rules of the road anyway.
IDK why I didn't think of this, it seems very likely now that you mention it.
The troubling part is, that's a lot if people. There are so many people texting and driving it's insane. And if you trust the vehicle when it's not truly capable of being trusted that way, you might prevent some accidents, but you're also going to cause accidents where that system is weak, and you might run into those situations more frequently because you're not paying attention and trusting it too much.
There are so many people texting and driving it’s insane
it would be trivial to block texting on phones in cars, but telcos won't do shit until they get sued.
It's easy to block texting if you're moving fast, but how do you expect them to tell the difference between being the driver or passenger?
humans crash about once every 500,000 miles
That sounds extremely high IMO.
https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-and-rates/
As far as I can tell, that 500,000 miles number is between deadly crashes.
So I'm not sure this is an apples to apples comparison.
Sorry I have to downvote the article as grossly misleading.
Edit:
Deadly crashes are 1,38 per 100 million miles! so about 72 million miles between deadly crashes. Way way better than I thought.
From the linked article:
Since 1923, the mileage death rate has decreased 93% and now stands at 1.38 deaths per 100 million miles driven.
This is about 72,000,000 miles between motor vehicle deaths, not 500,000 miles.
According to this article https://driving-tests.org/driving-statistics/:
In 2022, there were 5,930,496 police-reported motor vehicle crashes (Source: https://driving-tests.org/driving-statistics/)
And
In 2022, there were 235,086,153 licensed drivers and 303,528,576 registered vehicles in the United States. These drivers drove a total of 3,196,191 million (i.e., over three trillion) vehicle miles that year. (NHTSA, August 2024) (Source: https://driving-tests.org/driving-statistics/)
Which is just over 500,000 miles between police reported crashes.
Edited to correct numbers as noted by comments!
They did the math
Thanks, then people are not so bad at driving after all.
I checked your numbers and you seem to be correct. Except from the chart it's 1.38 per 100 million or 72 million miles between deadly accidents, but that is still a lot better than ½ a million that I originally thought. I'm guessing 77 was a typo? 👍
Thanks for checking! That was in fact a typo and I edited my comment to reflect it!
Its not that most people are shit drivers, if you could dissect the numbers further you would see a minority of drivers involved in the majority of crashes. I know people who have been in 3 crashes in the past year and have driven under 15K miles.
If you look at countries where the driver training is more vigorous and the punishment for bad driving more severe, you'll see that accident rate plummet further. This is especially true of traffic fatalities
I have driven more than a million miles in North america over the past 20 years and been rear-ended once due to the shit driver behind me failing to stop. I have zero accidents that are my fault in my driving history. I credit it to going through the British driver training system. It was an absolute nightmare to pass but it made me a much better driver.
I'd rather know how it compares to waymo
It wasn't as dramatic, but still more. But it's not really apples to apples since the monitor in the passenger seat has a stop button.
So it's more than waymo, while the person is also stopping it on occasion.
But that's still hard to compare because waymos still do really stupid shit like turn in oncoming lanes, run red lights, or drive into flooded parking lots (all past week or two) where that saftey monitor would stop it.
But it's more than waymo, with the saftey monitor.
You know what would actually be interesting...
If the passengers in these vehicles could flag an unsafe moment and that went directly to the NHSTA including videos and sensor data.
That would better flag things like running red lights or driving into flooded parking lots I mentioned above that might go unreported otherwise other than social media where it's not tracked.
Why would that be a relevant comparison? Why do you care about Waymo?
If it's safer than a human, release them to the public. If it's more dangerous than a human ban them from public roads until they have improved.
Goes for all autonomous car providers.
Well if I am going to ride in one of these ever I want to try and choose the safer of the two. I already assume the Tesla one suck. The waymo one I have no reference for.
Also one uses just cameras and the other uses lidar so I'd like to see the difference in those.
I think I'll always feel safer with a human driver. They are already on the streets where I live for over a year so they must be safe enough for that at least.
none of this bullshit is safer than public transit.
Why do you hate billionaires?
