Good and informative article.
this post was submitted on 26 Nov 2025
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“The message was basically — you are losing,” one of the sources said, “and you need to accept the deal.”
Are they losing?
For the past three years, the news from Russia has been about young men leaving the country because Putin keeps updating the laws around the draft/conscription to feed his war machine.
I'm sure Ukraine is in a similar position, but it doesn't sound like a clearcut win for Russia, either.
Many articles about Ukrainian draft dodgers these days too. And Ukrainian conscription ages going wider. Grunts on both sides don't feel like fighting a war for others. But Ukraine has less manpower overall and thus will run out sooner.
the news from Russia has been
According to who? Ukraine?
The NPR article I linked above was citing a Russian source.
The AP article was citing Russian legislation, which I assume (and I could be wrong) is public record.
And that contains all of the news that has come out of Russia in the last two years? All of it?
They are very obviously losing right now. Ukraine is suffering from a critical manpower shortage, the west is not able to provide them with weapons, the economic situation in Ukraine is unravelling, and there's a huge political scandal.
Meanwhile, the news from Russia for the past three years has absolutely not been that. Even Ukrainian media admits that https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-thousands-of-russians-return-home-boosting-war-economy
I guess UK regime propaganda is still trying to pretend otherwise though. Given that Russia isn't gang pressing people into service it's not clear what basis the Brits have for their bombastic claims.
The reality is that Russian economy is stable and growing, it's able to outproduce the west militarily, and its trade is now oriented towards BRICS. Given the stark difference between Russia and Ukraine in terms of available manpower, resources, and economy, it's pretty clear to anybody who can do grade school math that Russia is going to win the war.
Given that Russia isn't gang pressing people into service
I wouldn't take that as "given".
And with the new law, draftees are immediately banned from leaving the country.
Those who fail to show up at a recruitment office promptly will soon face a raft of new restrictions related to banking, selling property and even gaining access to a driver's license.
Already before the reform, people who refused orders to serve in the military have faced a possible prison sentence of up to 10 years. (NPR)
As part of their efforts to combat draft evasion, authorities earlier this year launched an electronic register of conscripts to serve online summonses in some Russian regions. They also introduced a series of legal restrictions for those who ignore the summonses, including banning their bank transactions, suspending their driver’s licenses and blocking foreign travel. (AP)
I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.
I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.
Lol, "because you don't like these extremely biased sources, I quoted some sources with the exact same extreme bias"
I usually try to cite multiple sources because one or all may be biased, but it's less likely that multiple sources will misrepresent reality in exactly the same way.
It is possible, but it is less likely.
I quoted all three in my original response, and he only responded negatively to the one based in UK, implying that he considered the other two met some minimum standard of quality.
He also quoted those same sources in his responses to me. If he thought the same way you do, I would have expected him to dismiss them outright, like you are.
but it’s less likely that multiple sources will misrepresent reality in exactly the same way.
Not when you're selecting sources that all have the same bias. Like, how many sources are you citing that aren't Western neo-liberal and Zionist aligned? Zero.
implying
So he didn't say that, you're just assuming.
If he thought the same way you do, I would have expected him to dismiss them outright,
Or he would cite them to demonstrate that even media that shares your bias supports his position
It's possible, but he didn't say that, and our argument continued without your help.
It is weird that you're white-knighting so hard for him.
Why are you here?
This isn't your space asshole, I can be here all I like. Why don't you take your incel buzzwords and fuck off back to reddit?
[removed by mod]
That would be... so lame.
Hey, is it weird that Sephallen is white knighting so hard for you? Or are you a hypocritical pos?
All of your comments in my inbox are immature attacks.
Since you're not even trying to engage in an argument with me, I'm blocking you.
"Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past."
Jean-Paul Sartre
As part of their efforts to combat draft evasion, authorities earlier this year launched an electronic register of conscripts to serve online summonses in some Russian regions. They also introduced a series of legal restrictions for those who ignore the summonses, including banning their bank transactions, suspending their driver’s licenses and blocking foreign travel. (AP)
dude I've been reading about the ukrainians running kidnapping squads grabbing kids off the streets for like two years straight but uh yeah sure it's russia having manpower issues
Whether or not Ukraine has kidnapping squads doesn't mean Russia can't also be having manpower issues.
Both can be true at the same time.
You can't cite Russian conscription as evidence that Russia is losing and then say that Ukraine also using conscription doesn't matter
I didn't say either of those things you're saying.
This is what I said :
I'm sure Ukraine is in a similar position, but it doesn't sound like a clearcut win for Russia, either.
If it's mirrored on both sides, then why the fuck would you bring it up as a reason to think Ukraine isn't losing?
What you're doing is actually moving the goal posts, by the way
why the fuck would you bring it up as a reason to think Ukraine isn't losing?
I was bringing it up as a reason to think the case for Russia winning wasn't a clear slam dunk.
Resorting to conscription to fill your ranks is not something you do when you're "obviously winning".
And before you make a claim about Ukraine resorting to conscription, too, at no point have I claimed Ukraine was "obviously winning" either.
Why is that a reason, if that particular factor is a wash for both sides?
Resorting to conscription to fill your ranks is not something you do when you’re “obviously winning”.
Uhuh. So when the Soviets were flattening Berlin they weren't obviously winning? When the US had sunken the entire Japanese Navy and were systemically saturation bombing the Japanese mainland, they weren't obviously winning?
I wouldn’t take that as “given”.
There is zero evidence for that being true. Meanwhile, the fact that it's happening in Ukraine is very well documented https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recruitment-army/
I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.
You're confusing the regular draft for the reserves that Russia has had since the soviet times with the war draft here. There was exactly a single time that there was a call up back in 2022.
Finally, you only have to consider the size difference in overall population. Even if there was the same rate of desertion on both sides, then Ukraine would still lose.
Your responses have nothing to do with the parts of my comment that you're quoting.
In the first quote (I wouldn’t take that as “given”) I was responding to your claim that Russia wasn't press-ganging citizens into service. I then quoted two articles which themselves cited Russian sources (I'm pretty sure the State Duma is Russian) that said the Russian government was changing the draft rules and imposing severe penalties on people attempting to avoid the draft.
The second quote was pretty straightforward (I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.), so I don't know how you went from that to "confusing regular draft for reserves", but I'll respond to that, too.
I'm not confusing the regular draft for reserves. Both sources explicitly use the terms "draft" and "conscript" to describe the people I'm talking about.
And I directly addressed your claim explaining that there is no evidence of gang pressing happening in Russia, and that you were referring to the regular reserves draft that's been happening long before the war.
I’m not confusing the regular draft for reserves. Both sources explicitly use the terms “draft” and “conscript” to describe the people I’m talking about.
Yes, you are absolutely confusing the draft with the call up to the front line. I'm also guessing that you didn't actually read the article you linked because its says the same thing I'm saying:
The bill’s authors say the measure is intended to ease pressure on military conscription offices and streamline their activities, which includes performing the physicals and assigning conscripts to various military branches.
Even though the bill will make conscription a year-round process, it stipulates that conscripts will enter military service only during a few spring and summer months as before.
All Russian men aged 18-30 currently are obliged to serve in the military for one year, although many avoid the draft by using deferments granted to students, those with chronic illnesses, and for other reasons.
Even your own source is admitting that there is no increase in conscription happening.
I’m also guessing that you didn’t actually read the article you linked because its says the same thing I’m saying:
Articles aren't for reading, they're for headline skimming so you can look like you have sources. If they fail, there's always another one to try, you can even pretend that means evidence is overwhelming!
You keep changing the argument you claim I'm making.
Here's the comment, as a reminder.
I called into question your claim that press ganging (coercion into military service) wasn't happening, by citing sources that the Russian government was changing the rules of the draft and imposing severe penalties on people who tried to avoid it.
The sources you cited literally support what I said:
Even though the bill will make conscription a year-round process, it stipulates that conscripts will enter military service only during a few spring and summer months as before.
Do you even understand what the term press ganging means?
You've tried to move the goalposts twice now, by:
- Claiming my argument is about a "call up to the front line". (I've said draft/conscription since the beginning.)
- Claiming my argument is that an increase in conscription is happening. (I implied press-ganging was happening, and said nothing about a change in the amount of conscription happening.)
I am and have been ignoring anything you threw out that tried to weasel away from the central argument:
The Russian government is coercing (which is how press-ganging is used to mean in normal conversations; this is not an academic conference) people into military service.
Conscription/the draft already technically meets that definition, but piling on prison sentences, suspending drivers licences, banning leaving the country, and restricting bank transactions all make it clear that Russian men are being coerced into military service.
I have not moved the goalposts. My position has been perfectly consistent. You are misusing a loaded term to fabricate a narrative.
Let's be crystal clear since you are struggling with the definition. Press ganging is not a synonym for conscription. It refers to the illegal and forcible impressment of individuals into military service. What that looks like is kidnapping people from streets or their homes outside of any legal framework. That's what you implied is happening in Russia, and it is a blatant falsehood.
What you are describing in Russia is the legal process of conscription, which includes standard penalties for evasion. These penalties like fines, license suspensions, and travel bans are common consequences for dodging a mandatory draft in many nations, including many US allies. To call this press ganging is deliberate sensationalism.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the very phenomenon you mistakenly accuse Russia of is a well documented reality. There have been numerous verified reports of recruiters literally grabbing men off the street and from public transport to forcibly conscript them, often without any paperwork or due process. That is what actual press-ganging looks like. It is happening there, not in Russia.
Your argument tries to blur the line between a legal state run conscription system and outright criminal abduction. They are not the same. The goalposts have not moved. You are just trying to score a point on a field that does not exist in reality. The facts are clear, and your conflation of them is intellectually dishonest.
That's three times now. We'll add:
- Claiming I'm trying to "fabricate a narrative" as if there's some massive conspiracy.
to the list.
Do you seriously think I'm some part of some government operation to "weave a story"?
I'm a rando on the internet who thinks Russia is coercing men who don't want to be in a war to become soldiers.
Whether they corner them with infrastructural tactics or send armed men in unmarked vans to kidnap them off the street is immaterial.
Whether these tactics are practiced by Russia or by "many nations, including US allies" is immaterial.
It would be press-ganging and coercion if Ukraine did the same thing. It's press-ganging and coercion if the United States does it.
Standing on ceremony behind a dictionary definition and whether government says it's legal is such a weird stance to take when the issue is these people don't want to serve in the military, and the government is coercing them into it.
There is nothing worse than smug redditors who treat the Wikipedia page on logical fallacies like a set of magical incantations to win arguments without actually having any comprehension of what they mean. No he never moved the goalposts, you dishonest asshole.
God damn, you gotta stop treating theslappablejerk's videos as rhetorical guides.
The only person inventing massive conspiracies in this conversation is you. Now you can add straw man arguments to the growing list of nonsense you are producing.
I think you are nothing more than a troll who argues for the sake of it, without a single honest bone in your body. You are the epitome of a reddit debate bro, substituting sophistry for genuine argument in a pathetic attempt to score imaginary points. You are very transparent.
You keep trying to conflate two entirely separate issues, a sad attempt at an argument I have already dismantled in detail. You have brought forward nothing new and you're just regurgitating the same old drivel here. Take the L and move on.
I think you are nothing more than a troll who argues for the sake of it, without a single honest bone in your body. You are the epitome of a reddit debate bro
You won't or can't address my argument above, so you switch to personal attacks.
You introduced the word "press-gang" and tried to turn this into an argument about the dictionary definition of the word.
You also tried to retroactively rewrite my argument. (You're not talking about the draft, you're talking about the reserves. You're not talking about the draft, you're talking about "calling up to the front line.")
And you claim that I'm trolling?
My position has been that Russia has been coercing citizens into military service and I've been consistent on that point.
I literally addressed your 'argument' in detail, and you just continued to double down on your bullshit. You're a troll, and an artless one at that. You're not fooling anybody here.
Asshole, your "argument" was to just endlessly falsely accuse them of moving the goalpost. I don't know why you reddit shitlib's think that people should have to engage with your "arguments" in good faith after you've blatantly demonstrated you aren't acting in good faith yourself.
This thread was a proof that LOL players are the worse people on the planet.
Lol nice try with the Russian propaganda. The only thing growing in Russia is the amount of debt and their death toll.
Ah yes, Russian propaganda as reported by mainstream western media. The BBC admits that all the western economies are doing worse, meanwhile European propagandists acknowledge that Russia can fight on for years:
Finally, Russian debt to GDP is far lower than in the west.
Nice try with your thought terminating cliche though.