If Russia is successful in Ukraine, that makes it more likely that in future China will be able to carry out the same trick in Taiwan.
this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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It's not only that, it's also that USA is doing the competition with China the rough way.
China is mostly building up peaceful (of the cutthroat kind, but still) economic influence, USA is mostly not countering that with the same, but just disrupting possible logistical projects beneficial to China with wars.
So they'd want, I think, to have USA at least keep applying force where it already does, allowing China to keep growing. They don't want to do military solutions, their military is not that experienced and it's not necessary when economically time is working in their favor.
Putin is basically mocking (or imitating) the US, it's his inferiority complex - he thinks Russia should be perceived as some superpower of the kind of the US, and the same things to be "allowed" to it, so he does what he sees as the same things that US does. The results are secondary. While the US establishment and current, eh, leadership in turn too have an inferiority complex - they think today's US should be as "great" or at least "reliable" in perception as the US of 1960s, except they forgot the context and why even US of 1960s needed to be what it was. The results, in foreign policy, are mostly secondary too to that, I think.
IMHO it's because of the stagnation of the elites. The more involved wide population is into decisions, - even USSR had something reminiscing meritocracy in ministries and in industries and in the military, - the better is the quality of the whole state mechanism with its culture and elites. While the more narrow and closed it is, the more similar it is to a Hearts of Iron game.
Lol, where Russia used to be the one using proxywars to fight the west. It's now fighting said proxy war. So much for big old Putin's new strong sovjet union.
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China tells EU
???
Wrong approach LOL
China [...] does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine
China could simply tell Russia to fuck off of Ukraine. Case closed.
As I understood, their interest is actually prolonging the war, as that will keep US attention divided.
China could simply tell Russia to fuck off of Ukraine. Case closed.
Or send troops and weapons to finish the war in russias favor if they REALLY wanted to see russia win.
That's the nuance. They "don't want to see them lose" doesn't mean they need to win, China probably just likes the destabilizing effect it has on the area. So they prop them up just enough to keep them going.
Yeah, i am pretty sure China is playing the same "game" the US (or the collective west) is playing since the start of the war: Just send in enough support to keep it going and let the geopolitical adversaries tire themself out. Its very much amoralistic but has a surprisingly relateable logic behind it
Although the west certainly could do more to enable a Ukrainian victory, I don't see their motivation as being the same as Chinas.
Why not? Its all about the position on the geostrategic playing field... get a better position without risk to lose it all.
Because the west has nothing but cost to gain from drawing this out any more. Russias military has already been demolished, reduced to using drones and rockets. At this point it would make more sense to end this with a win and strenghten Ukraine against further russian aggression. It would still allow for increased military spending, and all the other stuff they want to do.
Russias military has already been demolished
You may want to check your sources of information.
country cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine amid fears the U.S. would shift focus towards Beijing,
How will the US remain the hegemon but with a war against China?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-with-un-projections?country=CHN%7EUSA
This is how. Obviously Trump is really not helping.
A lot of things can happen in 75 years, so the outcome shown here might not even come to fruition
Obviously, but even within the next 25years according to this forecast China goes from having 4.1x the US population to 3.3x. In 50 years it would be 2.3x. Basically if this is somewhat right, then it is a possible strategy to contain China dimplomaticly and weaken its economy without going to war. As the odds improve for the US over time.
I guess we will just have to wait and see
The US will lose hegemony during the next ten years if nothing changes. Going from 4.1x to 3.3x in 25 years won't be relevant for that transition.
This also assumes that China cannot change their child policy once more.
Thus, a big war is coming.
No idea what that means, but they do not remain anything anyway.
I recommend people to listen to John Mearsheimer. He explains it very well. Basically there is three focal points in global geopolitics from the US perspective.
Eastern Europe, because there is Russia close to NATO. The Persian gulf, because there is the most Oil and Gas and South-East Asia, because there is China emerging as the main global competitor to US hegemony.
Because the US started to develop their own Oil and Gas exploitation, and China is ever growing, since Obama the goal is to shift the focus from the Middle East to South-East Asia. Now Russia bogged down US commitment in Eastern Europe and Israel keeps bogging down the US in the Middle East, ideally wanting to drag the US into a full scale war against Iran.
This situation is perfect for China as the US keeps its military resources away from where they actually need them for their geostrategy.
Subsequently China does not want Russia to win in Ukraine either. They want the US to remain involved. This is also why a different approach to China by the EU could be the best way forward for peace in Ukraine. If the EU dislodges itself from the US hegemony and stops involving itself in the Middle East alongside the US, China could see a greater benefit in ending the war in Ukraine. Chin, Russia and Iran do not as much form an alliance because of being great friends. They share an alliance because they all have the same opponent, the US and its client states.
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Noted... anyway
And Europe meanwhile can't do shit because, in all our capitalististic fervour, we made ourselves critically dependent on China. Smaht.
This article is slightly misleading if compared with the SCMP article which has big implications on understanding the global power dynamics. Draw your own conclusions.
SCMP:
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing does not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.
vs
As the war in Ukraine drags on, Wang’s reported comments suggest that Russia’s war in Ukraine may serve China’s strategic needs as focus is deviated away from Beijing’s mounting preparation to launch its own possible invasion into Taiwan.
It's subtle, but the attack on Taiwan is an interpretation. The minister means something else.
If the economic development continues, Taiwan will want to join China. Thus the focus of the US is interpreted differently by China, more like the focus Iraq or Afghanistan received.
SCMP:
During a marathon four-hour debate on a wide range of geopolitical and commercial grievances, Wang was said to have given Kallas – the former Estonian prime minister who only late last year took up her role as the bloc’s de facto foreign affairs chief – several “history lessons and lectures”.
Some EU officials felt he was giving her a lesson in realpolitik, part of which focused on Beijing’s belief that Washington will soon turn its full attention eastward, two officials said. One interpretation of Wang’s statement in Brussels is that while China did not ask for the war, its prolongation may suit Beijing’s strategic needs, so long as the US remains engaged in Ukraine.
vs
that they believed Wang was providing Kallas with a lesson in realpolitik during the four-hour encounter.
No mentioning of the “history lessons and lectures”, which is a friendlier way of saying that he has referenced past behavior that suggest that the EU is in the wrong.
There seems to be ignorance about what is going to happen even right at the top of the EU. The Chinese minister is calling bullshit. Yet Kallas must have already known better.
Your remarks regarding "lessons in realpolitik" and the alleged U.S. policy and the rest is all mentioned in the linked article. Just read it.
But your comment:
If the economic development continues, Taiwan will want to join China.
is pure Chinese propaganda as you know. Taiwan has said the exact opposite multiple times.
I have checked again. They are not. Could you please quote where the history lessons are mentioned or the other missing parts that I have pointed out?
is pure Chinese propaganda as you know.
It is not, and you know it. The US calculate that by 2027 China can be technologically leading not only in some but all areas. What does it tell you about global economics in 2035? Who is going to build the phone that everybody wants?
Taiwan has said the exact opposite multiple times.
How is that convincing? Do you know how fragile public opinion is? If China has prettier stuff in 2035, Taiwan will switch sides. China knows and just has to make sure that the US doesn't destroy them before.
Since people don't read my long comment: The bold part is only suggested by the author and was never said by the minister.
comments suggest ... Beijing’s mounting preparation to launch its own possible invasion into Taiwan.
The Chinese minister fears a US war with China instead.
When Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Russia in May 2025 to celebrate victory day in Moscow, Chinese state-controlled media outlet South China Morning Post reported that China's Xi Jinping kicked off his state visit by thanking Moscow for supporting Taiwan’s reunification with mainland China.
In a signed article in Russia’s state-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper ... [Xi Jinping wrote that Taiwan's] unification [with China] must be upheld as part of the post-war international order ... Celebrating the “enduring friendship” between Moscow and Beijing, he said the two countries had supported each other since World War II ...
The war in Ukraine and China's aggression against Taiwan are apparently closely linked, at least from China's point of view. There may or may not be a threat of a U.S.-China war, but here this is just a red herring.
They are linked, but differently. Without Taiwan, China can be locked into a naval blockade. China doesn't fully become a pole in a multipolar world without Taiwan. But they don't have to conquer it. Technological progression will make the Taiwanese want to join China. Only a war could prevent this which means that China will not launch an invasion.
Technological progression will make the Taiwanese want to join China. Only a war could prevent this ...
Do yourself a favour and stay away from wherever you get such stuff.
What's the counter argument? What will prevent China from leading in all key technologies in 10 or 20 years?
You're the one making the bold claim, it is up to you to support it.
An April 2025 report by the European Chamber of Commerce in China found that China surpassed its goals for achieving domestic dominance in the auto industry. Of the ten strategic sectors highlighted in the report, China has achieved technological dominance in shipbuilding, high-speed rail, and electric cars. However, it has yet to meet its targets in aerospace, advanced robotics, and the growth rate in manufacturing value-added.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025
China could be stagnating but I think that is the bolder claim.
As per the Global Innovation Index in 2022, China was considered one of the most competitive in the world, ranking eleventh in the world, third in the Asia & Oceania region, and second for countries with a population of over 100 million.[4] In 2024, China is still ranked 11th.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_China
Is there reason to believe that the West can outpace China for years to come?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-industrial-robots-installed
Not all robots produced by China, but it gives me the impression that they will lead also robotics soon.
Ok, even if China leads in all technologies in 20 years as you said. How does that automatically lead Taiwan to want to abandon self-rule? They're really advanced technologically too. Or to give a counterexample: Cuba still refuses to adopt a different political system despite the sharp technological contrast with the US (or NKorea with SKorea)
Most People don't choose Capitalism over Socialism for its values but for the material benefits. If those benefits are gone the majority won't hold out for the benefit of their elite.
We'll see. It's a good approach, better than putin's.
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