Insane Israel will cause our next global war. I’m positive about that.
this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2025
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That must make Putin so sad, he was trying so hard.
Not doubting you, but could you supply the evidence that makes you so confident? Curious to know the full logic too. Globe is kinda big in comparison to 2 or 3 countries no?
Israel makes no secret that they intend to steal more land from their neighbors. They're extremely nationalistic so this is popular for their political leaders. They know the USA will protect them. It's a series of facts with a logical conclusion. If someone else doesn't start it first, they will eventually.
Well it's pretty simple to understand that Israel is supported by many western countries, and there are many others who do not support Israel and/or those western countries. Those western countries will support Israel and push their influence onto them, so anyone who wants to oppose the influence of either Israel or any of those western countries will have an incentive to support Iran in the conflict. What you have there is the same set of conditions that led to the world's previous global conflicts.
That sounds like a glorified proxy war than an actual world war. Nobody wants to fight on the behalf of Iran. Most countries are going to distance themselves from the regime, and a few of the more isolated countries will maybe give them weapons... That's about it.
Israel bombed Iran because they know they won't be able to respond. They called them out on their bluff again and Iran did nothing again. Israel has been humiliating Iran for the past several years and they basically dismantled Iran's entire foreign strategy in the region, a strategy they've spent billions and decades working on.
A global war can only happen when the opposing side has enough weight to fight back and bring allies alongside it. Iran doesn't have this capability.
this ages poorly really fast
Except it didn't. If anything their response proves my point. It is such a weak response compared what Israel did to them. Think about it, what did their retaliation actually accomplish? Most of the missles didn't hit, and the very few that did hit didn't hit any strategic targets. They literally only hit random some random buildings and caused some civilian injuries... That's it. Compared to what Israel did to them that's nothing.
Keep in mind in their first attack they targeted the Mossad headquarters and Nevatim base. Israel said they were aiming at civilians, and actually arrested the journalist trying to find where the rockets hit (only democracy in the middle east, amiright?)
so I would be skeptical regarding whatever Israel says about what was hit or how successful it was.
the truth is that whenever Israel decides to randomly bomb and murder people on another country, they will get hit by a barrage that makes their iron dome useless.
You can't hide damage of that significance. Both Israel and Iran lie about the extent of the damages, but damage can be verified. You can't hide dead commanders or hide from satellite images. We tend to have a good idea of what happened shortly after.
In this case, Iran has admitted to a lot of the damages that Israel claimed and a few other of their claims can be verified with satellite imagery. However, Israel hasn't admitted to any strategic damage by Iran nor has there been any verification for the damages that aimed for. Iran can say they aimed for something, that doesn't mean they did. They can claim they hit something, doesn't mean they did.
I understand being skeptical of Israel because they're a dubious source, especially when they're one of the parties involved. That being said, we're at the point where we can tell that Iran's missle barrage yesterday didn't do much.
makes their iron dome useless
Just an FYI, the Iron Dome is not designed to intercept missles. It's designed to intercept short range rockets and artillery. This means that the Iron Dome probably wasn't used at all yesterday. Instead, other systems like Arrow, David's Sling, and THAAD were used since these systems were actually designed to counter missles.
Iran was planning a massive response, but Israel sabotaged them by blowing up the military command meeting and drone striking missiles sites. Instead of 300 Missiles launched in response it was only 100.
I doubt the full 300 would've done much tbh. Only like 7 of the 100 or so missles actually hit anything this time around. So if we triple the results for 300 missles, that's only 21 hitting targets. Even if we become generous and assume an extra 7 hit anything to even the number of successful hits to 30, that's still only a 10% success rate. Sure, 30 targets is way more impactful than 7, but that's not exactly enough to even shock Israel, especially when you consider how weak the payload is on these missles.
Last time 300 missiles overwhelmed Israel’s defenses and they needed US and Jordanian support to take out most of the attack. Both sides learned from the last skirmish.
Countries do this in general because those projectiles are violating these countries' sovereignty. Iran doesn't ask these countries for permission to have their missiles go through their airspace, they just do it. No country is going to allow another country to endanger it's people by sending through its borders without their consent, so they just take them down.
In this case, Jordan is under the protection of the US and they have American bases and use American systems. So when something like this happens, Jordan works in coordination with the US to take the missles over its borders.
You think Jordanians care more about an abstract concept of sovereignty than over their literal Palestinian brothers being genocided?
The king can use this excuse as much as he wants but we know it’s because of US pressure.
I actually lived in the Middle East (Iraq and Syria), and sovereignty over there means something different over there than in the west. It means stability and that is something that's scarce and precious. Think about the countries surrounding Jordan, none of them are truly sovereign. They're all flooded with proxy groups from the US, Iran, Turkey, Gulf states, and/or Russia that have led the countries into being failed states plagued by civil war, extremism, and violence. Jordan is like an oasis in the Middle East, and the people there don't want to change that any time soon.
Jordan has it's problems, the monarchy is definitely corrupt and unpopular, they population very much doesn't like Israel, and they are sympathetic towards the Palestinian cause, BUT they are NOT willing to sacrifice their lives, their country, and their stable lives for them. Keep in mind, Palestinians aren't exactly well liked in Jordan. There are two reasons for this.
The first is that the Palestinians tried to overthrow the government and nearly plunged the country into civil war not too long ago (Black September). Jordan fought wars on the behalf of Palestine, and so this event didn't set will with Jordanians. The second is that because Jordan is stable, the country has been the go to destination for refugees from Iraq, Syria, and Palestine for decades. Around half of the country's population is refugees. As you could imagine, this has stretched the state to its absolute limits and has put the economy in shambles. It doesn't help that since a lot of the refugees are impoverished, they tend to be way more involved in crime and they have been causing mayham in Jordan's big cities like Amman, Zarqa, and Irbid.
Long story short, the real world isn't a Lemmy circlejerk. No country is dumb enough to risk their stability so they can seem morally superior to ideologues on the internet. It's easy to sit there and wag your finger while you're sitting in your comfortable home far away in the US or Europe. But to the people actually living there, nothing is worth sacrificing themselves over. To you things like stability and sovereignty are vague and abstract concepts because none of this personally affects you. This is why people like you are willing to fight for Palestine to the last Jordanian citizen without understanding what that means.
Baloney. This is still Jordan taking action to help Israel in order to please Trump, because the king is trying to get Trump’s help on a variety of issues. I’m judging them based on their actions, and you’re trying to say that their intentions are good despite all else.
Your defense is that by bashing Palestinians, so that means Jordan should help Israel crush them. Then strawmanning me by saying that going to war with Israel is a bad idea. There’s a LOT of options in between.
You seem like the type of person who will never concede anything no matter how wrong you are, but what I am telling you is the reality. Whether you choose to accept it or not is up to you.
Countries in general only look out for themselves. There's no "brotherhood" between countries. This is a cute idea that's used to push ideological narratives and diplomacy, but it's entirely superficial. Even the most loyal of alliances are based entirely in self-interest. No country anywhere, regardless of regime or ideology, is going to put itself in danger on the behalf of another country without gaining anything itself. That just doesn't happen.
In this case, Israel and Iran are bombing each other. Jordan is not involved. However, they happen to be located in the middle of the two. Israel is bombing targets in Iran by flying military aircraft over Syria and refueling there. They're not going through Jordan. Iran, on the other hand, doesn't have such capabilities, so they have been firing missiles directly from Iran towards Israel. The issue is that in order for the missiles to reach Israel, they have to fly over Jordan.
Iran and Jordan are not allies. Iran attacks are not coordinated with the Jordanian government, and they do not have permission to access Jordan's airspace. Iran fired missiles without warning or permission anyway. If Jordan was a more powerful country, this would be an act of war because it's a huge breach of the country's sovereignty and security. Iran can claim whatever it wants, it really doesn't matter what the intended targets for those missiles are, the reality is that any of those missiles could hit inside Jordan's borders. That is something that Jordan, like any other functional country, cannot ever allow to happen. It cannot let foreign missiles kill Jordanian citizens or destroy Jordanian infrastructure.
However, Jordan is a weak country, and they cannot go to war with a country more powerful than them nor do they have the capability to take down the missiles themselves. Jordan is aware of this, and they, like most other Arab countries in the middle east, have struck an alliance with the US as it's the only country that can protect them and is willing to do so. In exchange for allowing the US military to operate bases inside the country, the US will use it's resources to protect the country.
In this case, Iran announced ahead of time that they will launch missiles towards Israel, and so Jordan was warned that their airspace will be breached. Knowing this, the Jordanian government invoked their alliance with the US to cooperate on taking down any foreign projectiles illegally breaching their airspace... and so they did. Did they take down all the missiles? No, but they have to do something to at least to mitigate the risks that Jordan is facing to protect Jordanian cities and assets.
This isn't a part of some conspiracy, this is some common sense. Literally any country that is not a failed state would do the same thing. If Syria and Iraq were functional countries, they would've also shot down Iranian and Israeli aircraft and missiles breaching their airspace. I seriously don't understand what people like you think should happen, do actually think that countries like Jordan should sit back and have hundreds of missiles fly over their head without doing anything? That's the type of shit that would start revolutions and coups. No cause is noble enough for a country to sacrifice itself or put itself in real danger.
Jordan is not involved
Then you proceed to explain how Jordan IS involved and justify it.
have to do something to at least to mitigate the risks that Jordan is facing to protect Jordanian cities and assets.
By downing Iranian missiles and letting the debris hit Jordan instead of letting them leave Jordanian airspace.
I seriously don't understand what people like you think should happen
Stay out of it and don’t invite the US military in (hence making yourself a target), don't let US military use your airspace, don’t protect Israel, don’t intervene. This isn’t hard. Whether you choose to accept it or not is up to you.
Then you proceed to explain how Jordan IS involved and justify it.
How are they involved? They're not with Israel, Iran, or any power in the region. They're not a part of any conflict. They just react when they're directly involved. In this case, they shot down missiles that violated their airspace.
By downing Iranian missiles and letting the debris hit Jordan instead of letting them leave Jordanian airspace.
I lived in Iraq, I've seen Iranian missiles fly over where I lived before. They're extremely unpredictable. The technology they use for their weapons is unreliable, and because of this a lot of their missiles don't land where they're intended. This is why Iran sends massive waves of missiles one after the other even though it's very wasteful and expensive. They do it because they don't have the capability to conduct more efficient precision strikes. What this means is that Iranian missiles could hit anywhere, and they have hit Jordanian towns and cities many times before, which ended killing Jordanian civilians.
Virtually all of Jordan's cities and towns are located in the very west on the border with Israel/Palestine, and they're heavily concentrated in the the northwest. Here's an example population density map to show you how concentrated the country's population is. As you can see, virtually nobody lives in the eastern two thirds of the country, The Jordanian desert is basically inhabitable. It makes sense for Jordan to shoot down these missiles over the desert where nobody lives instead of shooting them down near population centers or taking the risk of having the missiles of fly over and praying that none hit their cities.
Stay out of it and don’t invite the US military in (hence making yourself a target), don’t let US military use your airspace, don’t protect Israel, don’t intervene. This isn’t hard. Whether you choose to accept it or not is up to you.
This is just a piss poor understanding of middle eastern geopolitics in general. The middle east doesn't work like Europe, countries aren't afforded a lot of options. It is an unstable region filled with war, religious extremism, tyrannical dictators, bad borders, and scarce resources.
Jordan is an inherently unstable country. Its borders don't make sense, around half of its population are refugees, they're boxed in by imperialist powers in all directions (Israel, Saudi Arabia/UAE, Iran, and Turkey) who all see the country as a part of their playground, and most of the surrounding countries in their position are doing way worse.
Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq have all done what exactly what you said, and look what that has brought them? They're all war torn failed states that are ravaged by proxy terrorist groups, ruthless dictators, civil wars, and foreign invasions. Jordan would be brain dead to go down the same path as them.
The smartest thing they could do is what they're doing now, which is basically being the Switzerland of their region. They have peaceful relations with all their neighbors, and they won't partake in any conflict that doesn't directly involve them in any way outside of diplomacy. This neutrality can only last if it's guaranteed by a powerful external power, and this happens to be the US in this case. Jordan is unique in it's neighborhood, but it's not alone globally. Countries like Iceland, Ireland, Switzerland, Japan, Oman, and so on all get to enjoy being neutral countries because they have US protection.
Also I like how my prediction of you here...
You seem like the type of person who will never concede anything no matter how wrong you are,
...ended up being a prophecy.
Jordan is like Switzerland? LOL. You can’t stop giving excuses. Meanwhile Israeli far right is already talking about annexing more of Jordan.
لن أقنعك. السلام عليكم.
إذا كنت عايش في الشرق الأوسط لا عرفت الاردن دولة فقيرة و ما تريد مشاكل ويا اي دولة. لا إسرائيل ولا السعوديه ولا تركيا ولا إيران. ما يردون دولتهم تصير كارثة مثل سوريه لو العراق لو لبنان.
They should be drawn in, they've been colluding with Israel to destroy Iran for at least a decade.
The Gulf states are controlled by Sunnis who are fanatically bigoted against Shi'a Muslims and other minority sects, and persecute those groups mercilessly. Iran is the center of Shi'a power.
Also, the Gulfies and the Israelis have a common interest in preventing democracy from being established in Arab countries. The Israelis know that despots are easier to buy off. The Gulfies despise groups with democratic aspirations since they oppose reactionary theocracy and corruption.
Anxious about how to defending israel without being too obvious
Yeah, they're going to have to pump the arab street with propaganda and censorship to prevent riots...
Meh. If they get pulled in and actually commit, Israel would be wiped off the map.
I don't think they'd actually be able to do that though. Israel still has enough support from around the world. Maybe a lot of precision strikes to destroy their defensive positions, then let the bordering countries take back their land.
The Gulf states aren't going to fight Israel. If they do join the war, they'll be fighting alongside Israel.
Why do you say that?
They're all a part of the same coalition that is under US protection and against the influence of Iran and Turkey.
Because they've signed treaties with Israel making that very clear.
They give lip service to Arab solidarity, but they actually fear it.
If they get pulled in and actually commit, Israel would be wiped off the map.
They're on the same side, so why would they do that? Anyway, the military power of the Gulf statelets, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is barely sufficient to sustain their genocide against the dirt-poor Houthis, let alone to attack a hard target like Israel. Tehy spend far more money spying on and repressing their own people.
Dubai will hopefully be levelled. The UAE is a uniquely evil entity.