this post was submitted on 12 May 2025
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Image is from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' recent article on Kashmir.


It looks like the spat between India and Pakistan could be dying down, due to a new ceasefire. As of the time of me writing this paragraph, it seems both sides want to maintain it (despite some reports of violations here and there).

Both sides have declared victory, which is completely expected given their mutual political parties and nationalist histories. It's a little harder to say which side has actually won, as both sides seem to have managed to shoot down aircraft and hit military bases. India has, in my opinion, had the more embarrassing moments, but international conflicts aren't cringe compilations. I feel no good-will towards Pakistan's comprador government, but it is at least nice to see Modi knocked down a few pegs. Regardless of the final technical victor, it's obvious that - if the ceasefire is maintained - who won are the hundreds of millions of people who won't have to live in fear of dying in nuclear hellfire.

This conflict is a good example of what multipolarity will truly entail. Countries that have been previously limited in their nationalist ambitions by American pressure will now take opportunities to revolt, sometimes against America itself, and sometimes against other countries in their regional neighbourhood. It's also why, as communists, our goals do not stop at multipolarity; it is merely the establishing act of a new era of agitation against peripheral and semi-peripheral capitalist countries that are forming powerful national bourgeoisie classes as the international American capitalists are forced away.


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] sexywheat@hexbear.net 52 points 2 months ago (10 children)

Poland prepares for war - NPR (sorry)

So, is there any evidence whatsoever that Russia intends to invade Poland? Or does Poland maybe intend to fire the first shot here? Or are they just acting out a big paranoid fantasy they have that evil Putler wants to take them over too?

Also the war in Ukraine has been going on for like three years, why now.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 51 points 2 months ago (7 children)

President of Bolivia, Luis Arce, declines his candidacy for the August presidential elections.

  • Telesur English
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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 51 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Spanish ambassador to receive formal reprimand after PM says Israel 'committing genocide' - Jerusalem Post

The Spanish ambassador to Israel was summoned on Thursday for a formal reprimand at the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem. Earlier on Wednesday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stated: “We will not engage in trade with a country committing genocide.”

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 51 points 2 months ago (3 children)

After several months of deployment, the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, currently positioned near Yemen for operations against the Houthis, is leaving the Middle East, and there are no plans to replace it – U.S. officials to Al Jazeera

  • Telegram
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[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 51 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (6 children)

MoA on ukraine v Russia via the latest article by the only useful analyst with RUSI. Certified brainworm free. Most of this MoA is a frankly well deserved victory lap of correctly calling the war. The most notable part is the analysis of casualties, which is obviously subject to all the fog of war and propaganda. This guy estimates that ukraine has lost 5-6x the number of troops as Russia

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/05/an-immediate-peace-is-the-best-one-ukraine-can-get.html#more

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[–] departee@hexbear.net 51 points 2 months ago (1 children)

What is the current situation in Lebanon? Where does Hezbollah stand militarily?

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[–] LoveYourself@hexbear.net 51 points 2 months ago
[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 51 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (17 children)

Two ballistic missiles launched by Yemen at Israel, one launched at Ben Gurion airport, likey intercepted in the terminal phase by THAAD or Arrow 2 triggering air raid sirens (multiple interceptors were launched after the initial launch of Arrow 3 interceptors) with debris landing in Jerusalem, another intercepted or fell over Saudi Arabia, no air raid sirens for that missile. The air raid sirens were for ~~Hamas~~ PIJ’s Al-Quds Brigades rockets, in response to a large Israeli bombing in Gaza, targeting the "European Hospital", killing 28 people. Apparently this strike was an assassination attempt on Mohammed Sinwar, but that is unconfirmed information.

Yemeni Armed Forces statement on the first ballistic missile launch, no statement on the second yet:

Israeli airstrikes on the European Hospital:

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[–] KuroXppi@hexbear.net 50 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

China is expanding visa-free travel to five South American countries, the foreign ministry said on Thursday. Starting from June 1, citizens of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Uruguay will be allowed to enter China without a visa and stay for up to 30 days for purposes such as tourism, family visits or business. The arrangements will be in place for one year.

Reporting from South China Morning Post, Archive link

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[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 50 points 2 months ago (2 children)

"China Drops to No. 3 Holder of Treasuries, Falling Behind UK" per Bloomberg.

This data is only as of March, so it stands to reason China might have sold off more Treasuries in the April and May turmoil we've seen in US bond markets post-"Liberation Day." China is now down to $765 billion in US Treasury holdings (plus a few more billion through Belgian custodial accounts), down from over $1 trillion as of 2020 with no signs of slowing down. Full figures can be seen here: https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table3.html

Will be very interested to see where things stand post-April though, those figures will be very interesting.

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[–] kittin@hexbear.net 50 points 2 months ago (4 children)

On Saturday, in a landslide victory, the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) won the 2025 Singaporean general election, claiming 65.57% of the national vote and 87 seats in the 97-seat Parliament. This marks the PAP's 16th successive election triumph since 1959.

The PAP has held a supermajority in Parliament since 1959, the longest uninterrupted governing party among modern multiparty parliamentary democracies.

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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 50 points 2 months ago (9 children)
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[–] context@hexbear.net 50 points 2 months ago (13 children)

[reuters] Kurdish PKK disbands and ends Turkey insurgency, PKK-linked agency says

https://archive.ph/zvf6v

i didn't see this one coming. what do you think about this development, news gang?

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[–] Moss@hexbear.net 50 points 2 months ago (16 children)

This is a big question, and not actually news, but you are all well-read nerds so I figure you can help me out. Why was it that 1700s Europe was able to industrialise and allow capitalism to emerge, but not other societies? What societal structures prevented, say, classical Greece or medieval China or the middle east in the golden age of Islam, from utilising steam power? Why did burghers emerge in Europe as a powerful class? If anyone could point me to some reading about this topic, that would be great.

Also, a fun worldbuilding idea I've played with is ancient Rome or Greece undergoing a sort of industrial revolution and utilising steam power. What changes would have to occur for this to happen?

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[–] trompete@hexbear.net 50 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Some Ukrainian officer explaining that their drone operators are getting hit more and more:

transcript

The second thing I’ve been thinking about a lot is that I’ve felt that the Russians have learned to counter our drone systems, and I’m seriously concerned about this, because in the past few days—the past few weeks, I’ve seen a lot of signs of this, when I see that the number of losses among our drone pilots has increased. Are these ambushes? These are complex measures, unfortunately. And I’ve been thinking about how we need to resist, yes—what we need to do to reduce this impact, because earlier it was only guided bombs, and now it’s “Molniya”, it’s fiber optics, it’s operations with many methods of attack and winged shoot-downs. This story—they're working on a broad scale.

And it really troubles me internally, because I keep thinking about what I can do here to improve the situation over there—to reduce this gap between Kyiv and the front line. That’s the main thing.

And the losses really, if we’re speaking about the brigades specifically, have skyrocketed. They’ve skyrocketed just over the last couple of weeks. We were also just recently at one of the brigades. This happens constantly—you might spend two hours with a brigade and you get the message that there are “200s”, there are “300s”, and of course, this greatly, greatly affects both what’s happening on the front and the overall condition of our military.

What I see now is—they’ve learned to counter our UAVs, and their success is getting better and better, unfortunately, and this is happening in several directions. First, it’s situational awareness on the battlefield. Second, it’s targeting the positions they detect—they’re striking identified positions. I’ve even heard in some brigades—“Let’s change our shifts not every three or six hours, but let’s stay on rotation for a month and then rotate out,” because today, the act of repositioning is very difficult and has deep consequences, including from the effects of the Russian enemy.

Again—three months ago they worked only with guided bombs. Now they’re using both “Molniya” and guided bombs, and now there’s fiber optics that were working three months ago in the Kursk direction, and now they’ve moved—to Kurakhove, to the Kostyantynivka area, and to Pokrovsk.

Three months ago there was no fiber optics at all in Pokrovsk. Two months ago there were just isolated strands hanging somewhere in Pokrovsk, and now—it’s daily operations—again, daily operations. And this is the problem that—I keep thinking about it constantly, and it’s more important to me than the Istanbul track, Ankara... and from what I understand, they’ve basically created an equivalent of our drone forces—that is, a separate branch of troops that focuses solely on countering drones. And in my view, we really, really need to consider—just like we have counter-battery units in artillery, we need counter-UAV units, positions that handle that, because their drones are taking out a major part of our armed forces—honestly.

And we don’t have a separate structure in our armed forces that works against drones on their side. There are specific initiatives at the level of individual units, some companies or battalions—but it’s not a systematic effort.

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[–] miz@hexbear.net 49 points 2 months ago

More than 20 dead after tornadoes sweep through Kentucky and Missouri | Nazi Public Radio

In Kentucky at least 24 people have died. Authorities say 23 of those deaths occurred in London, Ky., in the southeastern part of the state, with some people still unaccounted for.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 49 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Yemen launched another ballistic missile (Likely Fattah-1) at Israel's Ben Gurion airport. The missile was intercepted by what appears to be the Arrow 2 system in the terminal phase, which means it evaded the Arrow 3 midcourse interception system, and either evaded the THAAD system or flew under it's altitude floor (THAAD can only engage targets at altitudes above 40km, Arrow 2 is responsible for interceptions between 8-50km altitude).

Twitter link for video source

Xcancel mirror

What's happening in the video is that Arrow 2 uses both a kinetic hit to kill interception, as well as a blast fragmentation warhead to intercept ballistic missiles. The kill vehicle of Arrow 2 is designed to achieve a hit-to-kill interception, but simultaneously the kill vehicle will also direct warhead fragments at the target shortly before reaching the closest point to the target, once the proximity fuze sets off, in case a hit to kill interception is not achieved. The high explosive directed blast fragmentation warhead is capable of destroying a target within a 40–50 m (130–160 ft) radius.

Here, the kinetic interception was achieved and successful (the two objects impacting each other), but the directed blast fragmentation cloud completely missed the missile (the explosion in the video that takes place just before the kill vehicle and missile impact each other). This is why kinetic hit to ki intercept is an important capability for anti ballistic missile defence systems. If Arrow 2 relied purely on blast fragmentation, the intercept would've missed completely due to the Fattah-1s maneuverability and speed in the terminal phase.

[–] SevenSkalls@hexbear.net 48 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (12 children)

Germany Says Russia has Until the end of the day to Institute a 30-day Ceasefire or Face Sanctions

Reuters. Moscow Times. Pravda

Russia never agreed to this ceasefire suggested (or I guess demanded now that there's a threat behind it) by 4 major European powers, but instead proposed discussing a ceasefire with Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul. Zelensky has agreed to meet Putin in Istanbul Thursday. Trump is considering attending as well.

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 48 points 2 months ago (1 children)
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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 48 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Update on the United States Air Force Strategic Bomber Task Force deployments: A further 3 B-2A Spirit stealth bombers have headed back to the United States, following the bilateral ceasefire between the USA and Yemen, which excludes Israel. There are no more B-2s currently forward deployed. However, a squadron of at least 4 F-15E Strike Eagles has been deployed to Diego Garcia, and more are on their way at this time. Although they are not strategic bombers, 1 F-15E can carry 5 JASSM stealth cruise missiles, allowing for a squadron of 4 F-15Es to replicate the role of 1 B-52. F-15Es can also act as combat air patrol aircraft to protect the island from any surface or aerial threats (boats and UAVs). This leaves 4 B-52s at Diego Garcia, and at least four F-15Es. The F-15s are a noticable deployment, with the dual capability of carrying out strikes and defending the island.

F-15s deploy to Diego Garcia

There are now a total of 8 United States Air Force Strategic Bombers forward deployed, along with at least 4 F-15Es:

Stationed at Diego Garcia:

  • 4x B-52H Stratofortress bombers.
  • 4x F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft at least, equipped with 5 JASSMs in this picture (1 on each wing, 1 on each aft station, and one barely visible on the centerline of the aircraft). Stationed in Japan:
  • 4x B-1B Lancer supersonic swing wing bombers.

This means that the maximum JASSM conventional cruise missile salvo per sortie from bombers and strike fighters deployed at Diego Garcia is now 100 JASSMs, and the maximum AGM-86 nuclear cruise missile salvo remains at 80 missiles.

The maximum JASSM or LRASM (anti ship version of JASSM) conventional cruise missile salvo per sortie from bombers deployed at Japan remains at 96 missiles.

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 48 points 2 months ago
[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 48 points 2 months ago (1 children)
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[–] LoveYourself@hexbear.net 47 points 2 months ago (10 children)

Al-Akhbar analysis of Syrian Al Qaeda regime Millei-style neoliberal economic "reforms."

To make matters worse, the state-run Syrian Trade Corporation was dismantled, its operations frozen, and its vast inventory liquidated through public auctions. This corporation was a merger of the General Consumer Corporation, the General Corporation for Storage and Marketing, and the General Corporation for the Distribution of Textile Products; it had direct sales links to citizens and state employees in most Syrian cities.

Trade liberalization took center stage, with the government promising to cut tariffs on imports by 60% within a month of its arrival. The administration also made efforts to remove trade and transportation barriers with neighboring Jordan and Turkey. Turkish exports to northern Syria surged to $219 million in January alone, marking a 35.5% year-on-year increase. Cheap Turkish products have now flooded the market and can be seen being bought on the sidewalks at the expense of Syrian goods.

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[–] dead@hexbear.net 47 points 2 months ago (4 children)

https://xcancel.com/Pontifex

Pope Leo activated his twitter account today and made some posts.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 47 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Evo Morales Reaffirms His Interest in Seeking the Bolivian Presidency - Telesur English

Article

The Constitutional Court, however, made it clear that the Constitution does not allow discontinuous reelection. On Wednesday, the Plurinational Constitutional Court (TCP) established that presidential reelection can only occur once continuously and without the possibility of a third term.

The court ruling clarifies the Bolivian Constitution’s Article 168, which establishes that the president and vice president can be reelected “only once continuously,” and which left doubts about whether discontinuous reelection was permitted. The TCP’s interpretation also applies to those seeking reelection as national legislators, governors, mayors, regional assembly members, and municipal councilors.

As a result of the Constitutional Court ruling, the historic leader of the Bolivian left, Evo Morales, would not be eligible to run in the August 17 elections, as he had previously served as president three times: 2006-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2019.

“Bolivian election candidate Andrónico Rodriguez advocates for unity after Arce’s resignation and criticizes the MAS’s disputes.” On Tuesday, President Luis Arce renounced his reelection bid and challenged Morales to follow the same path with the goal of “closing ranks” around the most popular leftist candidate. Arce asked Senate President Andronico Rodriguez, who a couple of weeks ago decided to distance himself from Morales and run for the Bolivian presidency on his own, to join the unity of the leftist popular bloc.

In response, Morales rejected Arce’s challenge and reaffirmed his intention to seek the Bolivian presidency again. “Only the people can ask me to decline my candidacy. We have no personal ambitions. We will obey the people’s mandate to save Bolivia again. We will never renounce our revolutionary consciousness. With the strength of the people, we remain standing,” he said.

“Once again, we call on the brothers and sisters who have distanced themselves to return to their families and to the cradle of the true revolution so that we, together and united, can triumph at the polls and rebuild the destroyed homeland,” Morales stressed.

“We have already demonstrated that we know how to govern while guaranteeing stability and economic growth. With us, there has never been a shortage of fuel or dollars. For 14 years, we maintained a single exchange rate, distributed the state’s wealth to the people through public works projects and bonds, and defended our natural resources against the voracity of the Empire and its transnational corporations,” he concluded.

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 47 points 2 months ago (6 children)
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