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[-] Ram_The_Manparts@hexbear.net 89 points 10 months ago

Pretend it never happened

Pivot to China

[-] 201dberg@lemmygrad.ml 49 points 10 months ago

Additionally/Alternatively they might also slander the shit out of Ukraine and say they misused and abused the wests supplies and it was all their own incompetence that cause them to loose. This will probably be used to justify the continued rejection from them joining NATO.

[-] Spongebobsquarejuche@hexbear.net 31 points 10 months ago

The Western Allies will suddenly remember how corupt Ukraine is.

[-] PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.ml 23 points 10 months ago

Especially that they really do misuse and embezzle those supplies, especially money and smaller things like medicines, small arms, etc. though even if they did not they would still didn't win the war.

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[-] CicadaSpectre@lemmygrad.ml 52 points 10 months ago

Russia may win this war in the conventional sense. They may take Kiev, install a Russia-friendly government, and even have military forces occupying the country to keep the terrorists from simply walking in and overthrowing them. But the West will do all they can to spread civil unrest in the populace, to get them to side with the russophobes, to fund and arm those russophobes, and to recreate this same model in all of Russia's neighboring countries. I'm not sure you can actually "win" the style of war the imperialists wage nowadays unless the imperialists lose wholesale. If the US and its lackeys keep channeling their propaganda in a region, keep throwing their money in a region, keep arming fascists in a region, then you have an infection you can't control. And if you crack down and secure it, it makes your liberalized population sympathetic to the fascists because they can't see or comprehend the threat to their sovereignty or lives. This is the game the West plays and has played for decades, and I don't think its going to end until the head is cut off the snake and the fascists are cut off from their platforms and funding.

Of course, everyone here knows this. How this is going to turn out for Ukraine, who can say? The terrorists might slip the leash and attack Europe, immediately turning everyone off from the whole thing and giving Russia a needed reprieve. I suspect Russia may win the war, but the peace will be a grueling and draining affair for years, until the US is forced to divert resources elsewhere and the fascists are forced to go underground as their funding dries up.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 20 points 10 months ago

It's a mistake to focus on Ukraine as the core of the conflict. Geopolitical outcome of the war is far more relevant. We're seeing much of the world turning away from the west now, and BRICS is already a larger economy than the G7. The trend will be for western economic bloc to shrink and for BRICS to grow. This will cause a deep economic crisis in the west, and I'd argue we're already seeing the start of it happening. Current political system in the west is already unstable, and I don't think it will survive the crisis.

Meanwhile, Russia doesn't have to take all of Ukraine. An alternative scenario to consider is that Russia takes the territory that's largely populated by Russian speakers where there will be little support for any kind of insurgency. They will likely cut off remaining rump state of Ukraine from the sea by going through Odessa and connecting to Transnistria.

The remaining territory of Ukraine will be cut off from most of the industrial and agricultural areas, and it's populated by hardcore nationalists who will be very bitter with the west abandoning them. If the west allows western Ukraine fail then Europe will be faced with a flood of refugees feeding further into the current economic crisis. However, continuing propping western Ukraine up will become an economic black hole for the west.

[-] CicadaSpectre@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 10 months ago

That makes sense. But wouldn't leaving the rump state invite the fascists back into power? Does the gained territory really offer much of a buffer for Russia if what's left of Ukraine keeps getting funded by the West to agitate the region?

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 12 points 10 months ago

The rump state is not going to be very easy for Russia to destabilize, and eventually Russia will likely end up with a puppet regime there. There's already precedent for this in Chechnya right now. Meanwhile, the buffer Russia gains comes from the fact that whatever is left of Ukraine will not be able to join NATO. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be demilitarized going forward.

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[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 51 points 10 months ago

I expect there's going to be a massive political upheaval in Europe, and possibly in US as well. Losing the war will be the backdrop for the economic crash that western economies are now entering. People were sold on a quick war that was supposed to secure western dominance over the world. There wasn't supposed to be any significant economic blowback in the west, but now people are increasingly connecting the war with their declining standard of living. This is now translating into a political backlash against the people who championed the war.

The west will see itself deeply humiliated, they will have to come to terms with the fact that majority of the world does not stand with the west and actively resents western system. This is going to be a hard pill to swallow for people who've been taught all their lives that they're cream of the crop of humanity.

The big question is where the west is headed once the current system implodes. Unfortunately, all the indicators are that western countries are increasingly flirting with fascism and the right is growing rapidly. Unless the left becomes a lot better at organizing and recruiting, we'll likely see full blown fascism taking hold shortly.

[-] huf@hexbear.net 30 points 10 months ago

yeah, they're not gonna come to terms with the rest of the world having real people. they're gonna go full fascist and blame the usual suspects for this loss, and try to take as many people with them in their suicidal death drive as they can.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 35 points 10 months ago

I definitely expect the west to embrace fascism because that's the natural evolution of the capitalist system in a crisis. The problem the west has right now is that it allowed itself to be deindustrialized, and it's heavily dependent on the rest of the world for a lot of essentials. This problem doesn't really have an easy solution as you can't just flip a switch and create a domestic industrial economy out of the whole cloth. And as western influence continues to shrink the west will loose access to cheap commodities they've been extracting from the rest of the world. We're seeing a perfect example of this happening with Niger asserting its sovereignty and kicking France out. All of a sudden France lost access to effectively free uranium that it was robbing Niger of. Having to deal with other countries on equal terms means higher input prices for western industries, and that will only heighten the economic crisis.

[-] ghost_of_faso2@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 10 months ago

This problem doesn’t really have an easy solution as you can’t just flip a switch and create a domestic industrial economy out of the whole cloth.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 22 points 10 months ago

Haha I should've qualified that with under capitalism :)

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 10 months ago

Only possible with communist magic 🪄

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[-] kig_v2@lemmygrad.ml 28 points 10 months ago

Lucy: It'll be a quick war, Charlie Brown!

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 24 points 10 months ago

In and out, a quick adventure.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 13 points 10 months ago

Home by Christmas (but which Christmas?)...

[-] TheCaconym@hexbear.net 16 points 10 months ago

we'll likely see full blown fascism taking hold shortly

With a real possibility it'll be followed eventually by nuclear war

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 10 months ago

Entirely likely unfortunately.

[-] ProxyTheAwesome@hexbear.net 10 points 10 months ago

The left recently won in Slovakia on an anti-Ukraine war platform. It can be done, we're not doomed to fascism. Western and especially European Leftists need to stop being chauvinist succs and actually oppose the imperialist Ukraine War, then they have a chance of taking power. They're losing their window and the fascists are a couple steps ahead. Come on EU leftists, it's time to get serious. You are in Germany 1935.

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[-] kig_v2@lemmygrad.ml 50 points 10 months ago

USA accepts the end of their hegemony like a good sport.

Lmao.

USA v. China suicide charge. Maybe some bullying of Mexico. And then the imperialism will have absolutely no options but to turn inward. And this desecrated land will bleed itself until all the toxins are expelled.

I think Russia's fate depends a lot on how they choose to proceed independently of external forces. It really will be a toss up between decaying into an imperialist power, or a reinstatement of the socialist Union.

[-] Mzuark@lemmygrad.ml 34 points 10 months ago

I do find it concerning how pretty much every presidential candidate is running on the promise of going to war with somebody in the near future. Either Russia, China or Mexico. Maybe some more incursions into Africa in the mean time.

[-] bennieandthez@lemmygrad.ml 46 points 10 months ago

regardless which side wins, ukraine is going to be THE place to set up industries to exploit cheap labour in europe.

[-] Mzuark@lemmygrad.ml 29 points 10 months ago

I expect a lot of child exploitation.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 19 points 10 months ago

the bread and butter of western economy

[-] muad_dibber@lemmygrad.ml 44 points 10 months ago
  • Like a true loser the US and UK will make it seem like they left of their own accord.
  • Half of Ukraine will be a Russian-controlled oblast.
  • Europe moves on, and increasingly allies with China and Russia over the US, and accepts the new oblast.
[-] juchebot88@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 10 months ago

Like a true loser the US and UK will make it seem like they left of their own accord.

If Vietnam is any indication, they will pretend they left of their own accord, but will also perpetrate a stab-in-the back myth: "those damn tankies and Russia dupes sold out America and our Ukrainian allies!" Eventually, the war will be impossible to discuss, because the only accepted narrative will be that we won and lost at the same time.

Doublethink, one might even call it.

[-] 201dberg@lemmygrad.ml 26 points 10 months ago

It will be the publics fault for lack of support. We didn't Slava Ukraine enough for them.

[-] juchebot88@lemmygrad.ml 23 points 10 months ago

Yep, that's exactly what the official narrative on Vietnam is. It's ironic, because "lack of support" in historical context means "the US public stopped being keen on the war once they realized that they, or their sons, husbands, boyfriends, etc., could be sent to die halfway across the world." Isn't agitating for your own interests what people are supposed to do in a liberal democracy, at least in theory and according to the propaganda?

[-] PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Isn’t agitating for your own interests what people are supposed to do in a liberal democracy, at least in theory and according to the propaganda?

Unfortunately, the only people on the right of Stalin that still remember that are libertarians, and they don't believe in any democracy anyway because egoism, Ayn Rand etc. For the rest, democracy is about Doing The Right Thing, as media tell them.

Oh and of course the people who dictate those Right Things, that is the lobby groups.

[-] olgas_husband@lemmygrad.ml 41 points 10 months ago

europe going full fascist once again, with the excuse they need to defend themselves from "soviet union"

[-] DesiDebugger@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 10 months ago

Combine all the fallout of the collapse of democratic Afghanistan and the seething anger from Vietnam

[-] juchebot88@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

seething anger from Vietnam

Except this time I hope the veterans actually get spit on.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 30 points 10 months ago

"democratic" Afghanistan? There was only one democratic Afghanistan and that was the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.

[-] DesiDebugger@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

That's the one I'm referring to. the treatment of the mujahideen by the west of the day is eerily similar to the wests current support for groups like azov.

[-] kig_v2@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 10 months ago

Oh, I also thought you meant the botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Makes more sense. Although the withdrawal additionally shows that Americans have the memory of goldfish.

[-] darkcalling@lemmygrad.ml 31 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

It really depends on the terms of the loss. There’s the potential for stabbed in the back anger from the Nazis there that turns violent against Western Europe, there’s also the possibility that’s avoided and instead they conduct decades of terrorist attacks against Russia with the west’s continued support.

I’m somewhat doubtful Zelensky will be reasonable, so Russia may have to choose between a costly offensive that takes Kiev and chases the government to the west while degrading it or a frozen conflict with Donbas and other newly Russian regions under Russian control but disputed and not recognized as such in the west or by Ukraine. Because Zelensky knows he’ll have a chopper and a plane waiting for him even if Kiev falls whereas if he negotiates the Nazis there or the CIA will kill him.

We’re already seeing fascists in the European Union and NATO calling for more expansion eastward and calling it imperative and a necessity. So I suspect color revolution attempts in CIS countries like Georgia, the -stans. They’ve already pulled shit in Armenia. The goal being to distract and overcome Russia by pushing up to their borders in too many places for them to militarily defend at once with their limited troops.

Long-term I think they want enlargement to indoctrinate the peoples there with anti-Russia sentiment and eventually throw them into a grand conflict with Russia to cause enough internal trouble, instability and profit loss to allow a coup to replace Putin with someone more pliant to the west. They’re not giving up, there are degrees of success for the US and though Ukraine hasn’t succeeded as much as they hoped they’ve in some way’s strengthened their hand by pulling Europe inescapably into their orbit it seems (reactionary populism though could undo that in the next decade or two).

Edit The west is very guileful, very dangerous. They suspect they're not strong enough to pin and hold down Russia and China, let alone defeat them. So instead they implement a short-medium-term plan to create armies against Russia, to put down propaganda and create a sea of hostility around them that can be used to pin them while leaving all of the imperial core and NATO resources free to go after China. They are not bad strategists.

[-] Effort0499@lemmygrad.ml 24 points 10 months ago

Same thing as when the US lost in Afghanistan. Lots of cry babies and that's basically it. All these countries are just chess pieces to them.

[-] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 20 points 10 months ago

East / West ukkkraine

eu-cool austerity and QoL to be sacrificed for a new permanent European arms industry (probably a subsidiary of US arms).

WW3 fr fr by 2050 to try to Balkanize Russia and suck it's resources for western crap-it-all-ism. Oh and Naizs all over the leadership being more brazingly Nazi.

[-] PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 10 months ago

for a new permanent European arms industry (probably a subsidiary of US arms).

It don't look like that. US is whining for more arms expenses from its NATO vassals, but at the same time deindustrialize Europe. It's clear they want all those expenses flow to US MIC and to further dependence of EU on USA, so it will never pivot in another direction. It is after all, one of the primary goals of the Ukraine war.

[-] Deadend@hexbear.net 18 points 10 months ago

“The west didn’t even want that territory anyhow!”

[-] Shrike502@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 10 months ago

I'm curious what would happen after the current war-time surge of jingoism cools down in Russia and people notice their material conditions do not improve

[-] ProxyTheAwesome@hexbear.net 9 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Improving material conditions at home was not the goal or aim of this war, and nobody expects it to. Everyone knew they would have to tighten their belts to make it through western sanctions, but that was the only way. The only alternative was to not go to war, and suffer even more in the future during 90s 2.0 balkanization boogaloo.

The west will be in a much worse spot than Russia. Russia will be recently victorious and one of the leaders of the new multipolar world, with its sanctions falling off as the desperate west tries to rebuild its own economy after de-dollarization.

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[-] REEEEvolution@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 10 months ago

Blowback season 10 or so will be dope. Especially because most of us witnessed it first hand.

[-] Ildsaye@hexbear.net 12 points 10 months ago

Bush will come out of retirement for one more job; donning the flight suit for a victory lap mission-accomplished-1mission-accomplished-2

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this post was submitted on 04 Oct 2023
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