this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
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back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] red_stapler@hexbear.net 39 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I guess france-cool is sending ukkkraine Mirage 2000s now? I haven’t heard a single thing about F16s since that one crashed early on.

[–] merthyr1831@lemmy.ml 39 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

The F-16s were always a gimmick. They're easily outmatched by modern Russian aircraft (in the numbers Ukraine was given) and take ages to train on since Ukrainian pilots are used to Soviet aircraft.

Even without hypothetical air-to-air combat (which is a distant memory in this war) even the S-200 system is capable of taking down an F-16 so the more modern systems are more than a threat.

Their usefulness was mainly as a carrier for the "deep strike" missiles (Storm shadow) in order to give them decent range, but that was quickly shuttled after Russian Kinzhals started meticulously hunting down any F-16s they could find on the ground.

EDIT: Wikipedia claims 9 are combat ready

[–] Voidance@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

a difficult event in the hague

[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago

A record number of poverty-stricken Danish families has applied for financial aid for the upcoming holiday season from private humanitarian organisations this year. The charity Blue Cross reports having received 15.5 percent more applications compared to last year for their donations of USD 100 gift certificates to supermarket chain Lidl.

The cost of living crisis hits hardest among the poorest whose already meagre pensions and benefits are not being adjusted sufficiently.

[–] batsforpeace@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (4 children)

random stuff pulled out from the Polish osint guy's last interview from Friday:

  • The Yuzhmash factory in Dnepropetrovsk had around 40k employees during the late USSR years, it made ballistic missiles but also other stuff like trolleybuses. It kept producing and servicing stuff for the Russian army like the R-36M ICBMs. After the 2014 coup in Ukraine it lost 80% of its business. In 2018 it had around 7k contract workers left and it has been making ballistic missiles like the Hrim-2 for the Ukrainian army, so it makes sense it would be a strike target for Russia.

  • He suspects the Russians notified the west about a return strike when the embassies started closing and not 30 mins before the strike like Peskov said.

  • Pro-Ukrainian propaganda is saying the Oreshnik strike is no big deal actually because 'Russia only has a few of these missiles' and also the 'US is going to reverse engineer it from the scraps at Yuzhmash'. Dnepropetrovsk has at least one Patriot system, which failed to intercept it.

  • He thinks the new missile is called Oreshnik because it looks like a hazel flower when it comes down.

  • In his short address Putin said Russia reserves the right to attack objects belonging to countries that have shared weapons with Ukraine which were used for attacks on Russian territory. Since he said 'objects' and not 'territory' that could for example mean submarine strikes on UK/French military bases in the Caribean sea or in Africa.

  • Some pro-Ukrainian analysts say one Zircon missile got shot down over Kyiv, but he's not convinced.

  • Ukraine has Patriot-Fs (newer model) because one was identified after kinetically intercepting an Iskander-M over Odessa and falling down.

  • There's a bit about the Russian nuclear doctrine update but it's long enough for another post. The previous version's language was more precise and listed a range of specific scenarios, the new one is much more loose about the qualifying circumstances. Russian military bases abroad and military ships are covered now. Belarusian territory is mentioned now.

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[–] miz@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (4 children)

Felix mentioned on a recent Matt-Shaped Hole episode that the median age of a home buyer in the United States is now 56, so I went to look it up and it's true, up from 49 in only one year:

The ages of home buyers reached all-time highs. The median buyer age increased to a peak of 56 years old, up from 49 last year. The median first-time buyer age increased to 38 years old this year from 35 last year, while the typical repeat buyer age also increased to 61 years from 58 last year

from the NAR report linked at https://www.cbsnews.com/news/buying-a-house-first-time-homebuyer/

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[–] x87_floatingpoint@hexbear.net 39 points 8 months ago (6 children)

Any news from the Lebanon front?

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 38 points 8 months ago

Venezuela Sets ‘Committee for Justice for the Victims of Fascism in July 2024’ - Telesur English

Article

‘We’ll deliver justice for 28 people killed, 97 injured police and military officers, and 98 injured civilians,’ Saab stressed. On Wednesday, Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek William Saab announced the creation of the “Committee for Justice for the Victims of Fascism in July 2024.”

“The world needs to know the truth,” he said, referring to the violent events triggered by Venezuelan far-right forces following the July 28 presidential elections, in which President Nicolas Maduro was re-elected. “We will deliver justice for 28 people killed, 97 injured police and military officers, 98 injured civilians, and 486 public properties damaged,” Saab emphasized.

These figures correspond to the terrorist acts carried out by paramilitary groups known as “Small Commandos” (Comanditos), which were activated on July 29 and 30 under orders from the losing presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez. “Before Venezuela and the world, we want to clearly and unequivocally expose an event that has been manipulated by major international media outlets, which speak in a biased and partial manner about what happened after July 28, when an extremist faction used the elections as a pretext to escalate violent criminal actions,” the Attorney General stated.

Saab also denounced ongoing media campaigns aimed at convincing the world that all those detained in connection with the post-electoral violence were innocent. At the same time, transnational corporate media have intentionally ignored the deaths and injuries caused by the Small Commandos.

Recently, following investigations conducted in coordination with the judiciary, the Attorney General’s Office requested more lenient precautionary measures for 225 individuals who were in custody.

“We hope that the media will report this news accurately because their release occurred due to the State’s actions. No NGO can claim credit for this, as these organizations are not part of the ongoing criminal process,” Saab said regarding the release of the 225 Venezuelans.

[–] Aquilae@hexbear.net 38 points 9 months ago (12 children)

Russia vetoes Sudan ceasefire resolution put forward by the UK

Russia was the only member of the 15-member council to vote against the measure on Monday morning, in a move that British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said was “mean, nasty and cynical”.

In an address to the Security Council after the vote, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the UN said that Moscow agreed “that the conflict in Sudan requires a swift resolution” and that “the only way to achieve this is for the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire”.

But Dmitry Polyanskiy said that while the Security Council’s role is to help the warring parties achieve that, it “should not be done by imposing upon the Sudanese, through a council decision, the opinion of its individual members”.

He accused the UK and Sierra Leone of “double standards”, pointing to Britain’s support of Israel’s ongoing humanitarian violations in its war in Gaza, and said Lammy’s criticism was an “excellent demonstration of British neo-colonialism”.

“It is shocking that Russia has vetoed an effort to save lives – though perhaps, it shouldn’t be,” Thomas-Greenfield said on Monday after the Security Council vote. “They claim it is because of Sudanese sovereignty. But Sudan supports the resolution.”

Isn't this a terrible look? Though I doubt a UN resolution alone would change much.

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