This report (https://slrpnk.net/post/14308357) came out, on the same day, about the IEA saying basically the opposite of this. It seems like they don't have a coherent story to tell.
Those two ideas don't clash
Energy use is outpacing renewables so we're still emitting more carbon than ever. When we manage to transition away from fossil fuels, the prices will drop and make that harder
The coherent message is: we can't save ourselves by letting the economics slowly play out
I suppose.
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One story has the IEA saying global fossil fuel consumption will peak this decade.
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The other says declining fossil fuel prices will inhibit the transition away from fossil fuel use.
You're right, the two things are consistent in that together they forecast a near-term peak followed be a very slow, drawn-out permanent decline.
I still think it would be much better journalism if the two things would both be discussed in the same news article.
Tech companies are also building power-hungry data centers at a frenetic pace, driven by interest in artificial intelligence. While data centers account for just 1 percent of global electricity demand, they are often concentrated in clusters and can strain local grids.
All that extra demand makes it tougher to tackle climate change.
Fucking spicy autocorrect will kill us.
This was always going to be the case, and the unfounded optimism has always pissed me off.
Similarly, an extensive historical analysis of technological efficiency improvements has conclusively shown that energy efficiency improvements were almost always outpaced by economic growth, resulting in a net increase in resource use and associated pollution.
GHG emissions are still at their greatest in history and ALL renewables to date have been completely absorbed by growth in consumption.
Jevons paradox and the rebound effect pretty much guarantee that we'll continue consuming fossil fuels until their use is forcefully banned. Renewables haven't even begun to reduce their consumption, and they won't before it's too late to even the prevent the <= 3C that's currently locked in.
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